Home Elos Games Posts
2021 Playoff Analysis: Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
Elite Quarterback
7 points
Aaron Rodgers
Premiere Offensive Weapons
2 points per player
Davonte Adams
Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon
Aaron Rodgers (Mobile QB)
Elite Pass Rushers
4 points per player
Preston Smith
Rashan Gary
Kenny Clark
Quality Offensive Coaching
6 points
Quality Defensive Coaching
6 points
Joe Barry
Number of Successful Comebacks
7 total points if the team successfully staged at least 3 comebacks
Elimination Game Experience
2 points each for offense, defense, and special teams units, provided a majority of key role players on a given unit have experience in elimination game scenarios.
Special Teams
Quarterback Elimination Game Experience
6 points if a quarterback has experience in an elimination game
Score Range
29 - 43

Green Bay will likely be the top seed in the NFC thanks mostly to the leadership and ability of one Aaron Rodgers. Not only is he an elite quarterback, he’s the best quarterback in the league, bar none. His impact on the game has never been more appreciable than when the Packers were forced to march into Kansas City with Jordan Love assuming the reins of the offense after Rodgers tested positive for COVID.

I think Green Bay’s offense is fine for the most part. It could use one more receiving weapon to compliment Davonte Adams. Randall Cobb may have been supposed to be that final piece to give the Packers a complete trio of talented skill players, but a season-ending injury ended that dream.

The problem with Green Bay is still the same it was last year - its defense. Joe Barry was hired to replace Mike Pettine after a disastrous showing last year against Tampa in the NFC championship. For a few weeks, it seemed like Barry would finally be that beautiful defensive mind the Packers so badly need to help the defense elevate into elite form. The problem is that unit has lost control of opponents multiple times over the past several weeks. Injuries and COVID have nipped away some of their better players, but it’s still not enough of an excuse to justify a unit like that falling off a cliff. The Ravens and the Browns should have never been given enough air to try and stage late-game comebacks. I mean…Baltimore was literally fielding their B-team on offense when they started rallying like crazy in the fourth quarter. It was only Harbaugh’s reckless decision to attempt the two-point conversion in the end that the Packers were able to escape Maryland with a win. Likewise, Cleveland was trying to drive for the game-winning field goal before Baker ended up throwing his fourth pick. Think about that…it took four picks to finally seal the game away. Turnovers are great and all, but a defense cannot just rely on turnovers to close out games, period.

Football Outsiders have Green Bay’s defense ranked in the bottom half, which sounds about right. Their only saving grace would be if Za’Darius Smith immediately plays like an elite pass rusher after spending the entirety of the regular season on the mend from back surgery. I wouldn’t count on that, in all honesty.

Green Bay wins the championship if
Aaron Rodgers can marshal the offense early and seize the lead soon after taking the field. Once they’re in command of the scoreboard, they must run up the score as much as possible. Their defense cannot be trusted to maintain anything shorter than a three-possession lead. Then again, if Za’Darius comes back in top form, he might be the critical piece needed to help the defense generate negative plays in key situations.

Green Bay loses in the postseason if
any of their opponents take control of the game early and seize a sizable lead against them, forcing Aaron Rodgers to mount a comeback with limited weaponry. It doesn’t help that the Packers lack a solid track record this season when it comes to overcoming adverse situations - while they’ve successfully staged two comebacks, they’ve also given up a late-game lead once. Honestly, had Baltimore did the right thing and forced the Packers to play overtime, it’s possible Green Bay would be sitting here with two games lost pathetically this season.