Just a quick draft to store some of my thoughts regarding the high-level gambling that dictates so much short-term success on Wall Street....

When it comes to the American stock market, the past month has been dictated by Trump's mood swings and his insane tariff policy. After announcing some wide-ranging tariffs that were calculated by ChatGPT and arranged in a lovely chart by Howard Nutlick, the market tanked by nearly 20-25% - nobody was expecting tariffs that were unhinged. On top of that, China immediately retaliated and Trump slapped back with even higher tariffs. A month later, the market recovered. It's like nothing ever really happened....even though baseline tariffs now impact almost every product the American consumer buys.

This is an irrational market. The reality is that tariffs will ultimately stunt spending, but Wall Street chooses to ignore this as it continues hammering away on speculative bets. To be honest though, it's a trend that follows naturally from years ago, when the markets rallied almost as quickly as they plummeted during the early days of the COVID crisis. If history was any guide here, this irrational exuberance shouldn't have come as a surprise.

So I'm going to establish some ground rules here as I go forward with gambling on the stock market:

• One man does have the ability to rattle the stock markets in this day and age. That man currently is Donald Trump. His whims and words can create shocks in the market so long as investors think that he's serious.
• Long negative swings isn't something the market will tolerate. Sudden negative declines in any speculative financial instrument (company stock, ETFs, etc) are followed all too quickly by rebounds upward. Not only that, but these rebounds have a habit of sticking. Even though this economy is in shit shape given existing debt, tariffs, and worsening inequality....it doesn't matter to investors. If anything, I suspect the worsening inequality is one reason why the markets are completely irrational - the upper crust of society has so much disposable income that any sudden downtrend is seen as a buying opportunity. We've seen these impressive rebounds in the past month in the S&P, the Nasdaq, the emergence of DeepSeek, and even UnitedHealthcare.
• Positive news relating to future guidance or general market outlook is beloved in today's economic climate. Nothing gets the people going more than any news potentially signaling great times ahead. We've seen this with companies suddenly preaching the AI mantra during earnings calls, the cocaine-fueled market rallies after Trump started announcing tariff relief, the bond markets suddenly recovering from freefall as soon as tariffs were paused, etc.
• Always compare market health funds to one another. Funds that track markets should be keeping pace with one another. If one market starts lagging behind others, take note. For example, the NASDAQ is outpacing the S&P lately. It makes sense too in the current climate, given that tariffs are likely to hit products/manufacturing harder than technology/services.
• Start paying attention to American bond markets. They may be some of the most unsexy investments out there, but treasuries and bonds are the foundation supporting the rest of the financial world. Any shift in the bond market can engender ripple effects impacting other markets.