I had an interesting time betting on the NBA Finals between the Pacers and the Thunder this year. As I type this, Game 7 has yet to start.

A couple things worth noting....

Before the series started, I assumed Oklahoma would walk their way to a chip given the disciplined way they've conducted themselves in the postseason and (far more importantly) their major height advantage. So long as the bigger players on the Thunder could consistently steal possessions away from Indiana through offensive rebounds, Indiana just wouldn't have enough opportunities to keep up the scoring pace (hardy har har) with a prolific Thunder offense.

I was wrong.

I underestimated the character and the grit Indiana has demonstrated so far. I also underestimated Tyrese Halliburton's star potential. The young man is as much a star player as SGA. Pair Tyrese with a deep bench and a quick-thinking head coach, the Pacers have more than enough juice to upset the Thunder. Frankly, one can credibly argue that this series should have never gone to seven games. That achilles injury that Tyrese sustained weeks ago has limited him through most of the Finals. Had he been as healthy as the players on the Thunder, Indiana might have closed this out in six games.

Regardless, I put a good amount of money on the Pacers MVP odds to hedge my bet on the Thunders. Once I saw Tyrese contribute very little in what ended up being a blowout loss Indiana Game 5, I had to reset and think. With the odds ratcheted up in Oklahoma's favor, it wouldn't be easy recouping the money from my hedge bets. That being said, I saw some juicy odds in favor of Pascal Siakim for MVP and seized upon that immediately. I also reviewed my internal notes from Game 5 and saw that Indiana was able to match Oklahoma point-for-point in the second half once they started minimizing Halliburton's role. I figured they'd be much better prepared for in Game 6 on their home court now that they know Halliburton can potentially present as a liability.

Well, it turns out Halliburton wasn't so much a liability as he was the spark that led the team to a landslide win. Regardless, my bets on the Pacers panned out and with Game 7, I had action both ways. If Indiana wins and Siakim takes the MVP title as expected, I'd be paid out. Likewise, Oklahoma winning would let me cash in the original bet I made before the Finals even started.

But I wasn't happy with that. I knew there'd be a way to put even more bets on the final game of the season. So I went back and reviewed historical postseason data going back to 2017. In particularly, I wanted to review playoff series that went all the way to Game 7 and involved the lower seed winning in dominating fashion in Game 6 on their own home court. I wanted to see ultimately if the team that was beaten silly in Game 6 regained their mojo once they came back to their own home court. Examining seven series that met this criteria, I noticed five of those series ended with the lower seed not only winning Game 6, but winning outright in Game 7. The other two series ended in wins for the higher seed team, though one of those teams were led by one of the greatest players of all time (Lebron's Cavaliers). It's also worth noting that those same Cavaliers lost Game 6 in a massive landslide in part because Kevin Love suffered through one of those injuries where the player remains on court, but only as a shell of himself. As for the other series where the home seed ultimately won ....it's worth noting it took Milwaukee three entire quarters to finally pull away from Boston with the lead in Game 6. One can argue a dominating performance goes past the final score - rather, such a performance needs to be judged on whether a team was able to sustain a sizable lead for most of the game.

Either way, I liked what the data was telling me - trailing teams that won Game 6 in domineering fashion usually ended up stealing the series away from their opponent in Game 7. I decided it was worth taking the risk and betting hard on the Pacers for Game 7. And when the game started, my bets were looking simply fantastic...up until Halliburton tore his achilles :'(

After that....the Pacers were only able to hold on for a quarter and a half before Oklahoma was finally able to pull the rug out from their feet. I still won money, but it wasn't very satisfying to say the least. Frankly, the Pacers started out strong and Halliburton was playing incredibly. Had Tyrese stayed healthy, it's hard for me to imagine the Thunder ultimately pulling out the win, especially given the way it took them nearly two quarters to finally get their asses into gear once Tyrese was taken to the locker room.