49ers @ Rams

As complacency theory postulated, the 49ers would start out strong. And that's exactly what happened - San Francisco jumped out to a 14-point lead within the first 20 minutes.

I think San Francisco's secret when defending Los Angeles is to pass rush through the gaps immediately. It's risky, but it does usually lead to pocket penetration on long-developing plays, which is what the Rams want exactly given all their play-action.

Unfortunately, injuries are killing the 49ers. Even though they were the walking wounded before the game even started, losing a starting defensive tackle and a starting right tackle only compounds their troubles even more.

And at the start of the fourth quarter, yet another starter from that defensive line is lost. I think it's nothing but second-stringers now manning the defensive side of the trenches for the Niners.

TTutu Atwell may be a vector for these Rams. If Stafford and Davonte Adams can finally get on the same page, the Rams may have a complete passing offense here with three vector-level pass catchers.

Mac Jones has made a living throwing short in Kyle Shanahan's offense. It seems to me that this style of offense fits him like a glove. This is what he needs to do.

Vikings vs. Browns

Despite the fact that the Vikings have had time to adjust to the timezone difference, it doesn't matter. The Browns are impressing. Minnesota's offensive line is a sieve - Carson Wentz only has one beat to throw the ball before Cleveland is able to collapse the pocket.

Dylan Gabriel being left-handed makes the right tackle position far more important to Cleveland's offense than otherwise expected.

Maliek Collins has been eating in the offensive backfield all day.

Giants @ Saints (-1.5)

In just the first quarter, Jaxson Dart has completed eight passes to four different receivers. Impressive for a quarterback that was barely productive through the air just one week ago.

Great plays by Demario Davis in general.

Giants are honestly playing better, but three fumbles by the Giants and some silly rookie mistakes from Dart have given New Orleans unnecessary life.

Giants have embraced the idea of a ground game anchored by Cam Skatteboo. And I fully support that.

Daniel Bellinger adds additional value to the Giants offense as a fullback on some power plays.

Broncos @ Eagles (-4.5)

Jalen Hurts has been distributing the ball well on scripted plays and throwing the ball deep. It's clear Philadelphia is making a concerted effort to bolster its passing game. Credit to the organization for that.

Courtland Sutton has been sensational, using his size to box out Quinyan Mitchell as a receiver.

Cowboys @ Jets (+2.5)

These Jets are fascinating. I've never seen a team find novel ways to lose. We're talking historical levels of ineptitude here. I don't know how the Jets fail time and time again, but it's hilarious every single time.

Brian Schottenheimer and the Cowboys seem to be incorporating play-action so much more into their offensive sets.

I'm convinced these Jets have a dark cloud over their heads. In other words...when it rains, it pours. One mistake quickly turns into a five or six mistakes. This team has potential, but it has no foundation, no anchor capable of grounding the entire team. Justin Fields is not that kind of charismatic leader who can rally the troops against adversity. There's a reason why the Steelers cut him, but still held on to Mason Rudolph.

Justin Fields needs more quick and timing passes. It's the only way he can be consistently productive. The deep passes may present themselves if New York can buy four to five seconds of peace with hard play-action, but that's a big if. Any team with a respectable pass rush can break this Jets passing game.

Justin Fields isn't running with the same verve or force of will that I saw from him in the first game this year. I think getting hit behind this shaky Jets offensive line brought up some very ugly memories. Regardless of whatever the reason, the boy is rattled and I don't think anything can salvage him at this point.\

Texans @ Ravens (+1.5)

I think there might be credence to this idea that rematches from last year where one team was blown out should favor the team that was blown out. I need to explore this more in-depth.

I think a fair case can be made that Zach Orr is a green-chip defensive coach. I get that he's likely working with nobody but second-stringers on defense, but to let up 40 points again the Texans in three quarters is sad.

Lions @ Bengals (+9.5)

Kerby Joseph has made two significant coverage plays against the Bengals in their first drive.

Watching this Lions defense early, it's like Detroit understands the Bengals' offensive playbook better than Cincinnati does. Then again, all I see the Bengals doing is throwing it short. Once Browning releases the pass, these Lion linebackers waste little time pulling up to the flat.

Jake Browning has been absolute hot trash. The constant misfiring, the horrible decision-making....please, make him go away. How the hell do you throw an interception under absolutely no pressure?

Imagine having seven points of complacency in your favor and you still end up screwing the pooch this badly. I think Jake Browning is broken as of late, thanks in no small part to opposing defensive linemen constantly harassing him as his shoddy offensive line does nothing to protect him. A broken man cannot expect to win operating Zac Taylor's uninspiring offense behind one of the league's shittiest lines.

The Bengals center their offense around the deep pass. The problem is that Jake Browning is no longer the kind of quarterback who can throw precise passes deep. He may have been that gunslinger years ago as a rookie, but that persona is gone for good now...likely as a result of all the abuse he's taken behind that ratchet offensive line. He's the type of passer who needs an arsenal of short passes and quick reads to fall back upon. Unfortunately, the Bengals don't seem to have much in their playbook outside of wide receiver screens and dig routes out of the slot. Combined with no running game whatsoever, Cincinnati's offense without Joe Burrow is a case study in futility.

Titans @ Cardinals (-9.5)

Cam Ward and this offense has remained as flaccid as ever, even after Cam Ward himself admitted a week ago that this offense is "ass".

A pass complete short of the sticks may as well not count, to be frank. It was the only pass Ward was able to complete on a three-and-out.

One another, another throw short of the sticks on a third-down for Cam Ward. I think the kid may be broken. That and this Callahan system of offense is just fucked in the first place.

Commanders @ Chargers (-2.5)

Chargers back-up tackles are letting up pressures early in the game.

This offensive line is becoming more and more problematic as the game waxes on. The Chargers are having a ahrd time maintaining the integrity of the pocket. And Justin Herbert seems habitually set in his ways of holding the ball until an opportunity opens up.

Dorance Armstrong is clearly Washington's best pass rusher, but it's worth keeping an eye on the defensive line to see if anybody else holds serious promise.

Buccaneers @ Seahawks (-2.5)

These two teams play competently and with purpose. It's refreshing to see teams like these two as well as the Chargers and Commanders, teams who play football at a high level (unlike the Tennessee Tits or the Cincy Buggers).

Patriots @ Bills (-8.5)

The Bills have thrown blitzes at Drake Maye, but Maye and Josh McDaniels have been able to answer with scrambles and quick passes. Drake Maye in particular has been damn good outside the pocket. He loves drifting out to his right.

Stefon Diggs has been playing out of his mind, especially on improvisational plays where Maye desperately needs an outlet while he's scrambling around.

The Patriots have shown remarkable discipline on coverage defense. On the play where they picked off Josh Allen, the intercepting cornerback was trailing his receiver in man coverage, only to undercut him at the perfect moment knowing full well that he had two safeties over the top should he fail in picking off the pass.

The Patriots have issues consistently mounting pass pressure. Their best pass rushers haven't really flashed as much on tape.

Chiefs @ Jaguars (+3.5)

The Jaguars are willing to blitz Mahomes. Pretty ballsy, but so reckless. The blitzes are about as ineffectual as the three-man pass-rushes.

Once again, Trevor Lawrence and his idiocy in full display - passing ahead of the line of scrimmage on an early scramble. Multiple delay-of-game penalties despite playing from the comfort of home field, a bull-headed tendency to run without any regard for his own protection...

Trevor Lawrence's running ability has bailed him out on multiple occasions, as has the talent of one Travis Hunter.

Kansas has almost no rushing ability whatsoever outside of Mahomes. Pacheco has flashed on occasion, but I've also seen him stoned at the line of scrimmage way too often. Is this on Pacheco or the offensive line? I'm not sure....

Finally, Anthony Campanile's blitzes have paid off. Mahomes was convinced the Jaguars were going to come and blitz him, so he lobbed the ball over the middle. The problem was the linebackers peeled away from the trenches at the last minute and put themselves in perfect position to intercept the ball. Devin Lloyd was able to do just that.

Speaking of which, Devin Lloyd has been a fantastic ball hawk. He may be a blue-chip player, though I need to see him make more plays outside of the interceptions.

Trevor Lawrence with another delay of game penalty at a critical moment in the fourth quarter. Just lovely.

The Chiefs have really made some ugly mistakes on the Jaguars game-winning drive. I mean truly horrendous mistakes. Kicking the ball out of bounds to place them at the 40, defenders holding and interfering with receivers at the worst possible moments, special teams players making the same mistakes on kick returns....losing the Super Bowl has really taken a toll on this team.

LESSONS

I think I need to do a better job tracking quarterbacks who prove to be liabilities. Just like liabilities can absolutely ruin teams in the playoffs, the same can happen in regular season games. Justin Fields, Jake Browning, and even Cam Ward may all be considered liabilities in the grand scheme of things. It's also possible that bad coaching is a necessity for a quarterback to degrade into a liability. After all, Browning (and Fields to some extent) were pretty serviceable quarterbacks in past seasons. So unless the passage of time really kneecapped them...then their absolutely shitty performances can only be explained away by bad coaching. Unbelievably enough, that would imply that Zac Taylor was so much better off with Brian Callahan than Dan Pitcher.

Then again, rewatching the tape for both the Cincinnati and New York game, I'm starting to think both Browning and Fields are broken to some extent. I suspect that both quarterbacks suffered some psychological damage taking hit after hit behind the flimsy offensive lines. Given that neither of their respective coaches seem willing or able to help them, it's not outlandish to think that these passers have sort of given up hope and retreated into their shells. You really need strong-willed quarterbacks if you're dead-set on fielding terrible offensive lines.

If I ever feel confident about my picks going into a week....I need to step back and re-evaluate. I got whupped this weekend despite feeling good about my picks. In my defense....the Eagles and the Chiefs were nearly able to gut out a win, but both ceded the game late in the fourth.