Jets @ Patriots (-12.5)

Treveyon Henderson may be a blue-chip tailback.

This offensive line has been phenomenal. Not a single bit of pressure on Drake Maye in the first two drives. The Jets were able to eventually harass Maye every now and then, but Maye's evasiveness remains as fantastic as ever.

Jack Gibbons seems like a decent linebacker for Vrabel. One who understands the style of defense he wants to run considering his past experience in Tennessee.

Of all the receivers, I think Stefon Diggs is closest to being the Drake's favorite receiver. But Maye seems to have fostered connections with Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas, and Mack Hollins as well. When Keyshon Boutte comes back, the Patriots might have the best set of receivers in the league considering how many of them have chemistry with the Drake.

On the defensive line, I still remain convinced that K'Lavon Chaisson and Christian Barmore are their best players. Barmore in particular seems to create more of an impact, especially when the game script calls for the opponent to pass.

Commanders vs. Dolphins (-2.5) [Madrid]

The Commanders actually have a defense that can perform well so long as the right pieces are there. The issue is with the head coach. Turning down a field goal in a tight game, settling for an unnecessarily long field goal attempt in the fourth quarter, his team committing more penalties than a Miami team that has been notoriously undisciplined through much of the season....these Commanders are simply not good.

Deebo Samuel may not be that swiss-knife player that the Commanders hoped he would still be.

Once again, I get my international games wrong. STOP PICKING INTERNATIONAL GAMES.

Buccaneers @ Bills (-5.5)

It looks to me like the Bills are being outplayed on offense, but they're still doing just enough thanks to improvisational play from Josh Allen. It's worth noting that James Cook has yet to get going midway through the second quarter. Tampa Bay has done well to stymie Cook's runs up the middle.

Tyche Smith may be an elite cornerback for Tampa Bay. It's a shame he had to leave the game early with a concussion. Add Jamal Dean to the list of cornerbacks who were sidelined early and Tampa Bay was working with a threadbare secondary, which may have ultimately been their downfall.

Josh Allen's accuracy issues are once again surfacing in this game. I've seen some horrid passing from him.

I don't see much rhyme or reason in the Bills passing attack, unless the strategy is to just hold the ball long enough until a receiver runs himself free. Khalil Shakir hasn't made much of an impact in this game and Keon Coleman has been sidelined after the team disciplined him for showing up late to team meetings. Without Dalton Kincaid, nobody else is really stepping up.

Tampa Bay is doing fantastic work running this ball at will against Buffalo's defense. The Bills shouldn't be this bad at defending the run, but the inside zone runs from the Bucs are killing them. When you take a gamble and cannot penetrate through the gaps, you are giving up open lanes to opposing rushers, guaranteed.

Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)

I'm going to say the same thing here about the Steelers as the Bills - I don't see much rhyme or reason in their passing game. Outside of a scripted drive early, Pittsburgh has had no success at all on first-half drives. And no, I do not consider their last drive in their first half successful considering the Steelers were aided by at least 40 yards of penalty yardage. I figured they would have made a few changes after getting belted last week by the Chargers, but I suppose not. This Pittsburgh offense is anemic.

Chase Brown is starting to establish himself as a veritable weapon on this Cincinnati offense.

This offense actually looked better under Mason Rudolph. To Rudolph's credit, he was willing to throw short and the Steelers were racking up good yardage after the catch. Cincinnati's defense was prepared for Rodgers, but not Rudolph. It makes me wonder whether this Pittsburgh offense has hit what would be a ridiculously low ceiling with Rodgers at the helm.

49ers @ Cardinals (+3)

It's worth noting - Brock Purdy is doing very well returning from a long-term injury this season.

Seahawks @ Rams (-3)

I can see why the Seahawks are so successful on offense. It's a Shanahan-style offense predicated on bootlegs, misdirection, and screens. To see Sam Darnold execute on these Shanahan-style concepts despite trailing in the second half of the game is kudos to the offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak.

Kenneth Walker is emerging as a dependable weapon on this offense. His patient-style of running really plays well with his ability to accelerate pretty quickly.

Even though Seattle doesn't employ the blitz much, it has done to do so at a higher clip this game, smartly so. Rushing Matthew Stafford's mental clock in the pocket is a strategy that's paying dividends so far. Not to mention the blitzing is specifically designed to make things easier for the defensive linemen.

Seattle's defense has been amazing, led by a defensive front that's been pretty stout against the run and consistent in terms of pass pressure. Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II may be the best players along that front, although more tape review is needed. Boye Maye, Uchenna Nwosu, and Derrick Brown have all made at least one impact plays.

As for the Rams, what more can be said about their defensive front? Jared Verse, Byron Young, Braden Fiske, and Kobie Turner are all players that excel above average. Of that group, Verse may be the best and worthy of blue-chip designation.

Ravens @ Browns (+7.5)

It's hard to judge the Ravens based off this game, but the offense does not look right at all. Derrick Henry has been the only player more or less generating real value for the offense.

Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews were also involved on a number of critical plays. Combined with Lamar Jackson's rushing ability, Baltimore once again should have a complete offense. The question is more about their defense, specifically their defensive front. It seemed the only trick they had to generate pressure consistently was the haze blitz. Such blitzes work against the likes of Shedeur Sanders, but more seasoned quarterbacks should be able to pick them apart.

Still though, credit to Kyle Hamilton for being such an effective blitzer.

Speaking of Shedeur Sanders....he made his season debut in the second half and it wasn't pretty. He showed a bit of promise, but far more work is needed to smooth his rough edges.

Lions @ Eagles (-2.5)

Eagles are so well-prepared. Even on punts, Philadelphia opts to field their starting defense in the event of a fake.

Tank Bigsby with his shifty runs makes him very interesting. If Saquon is ever sidelined, they m ight not be losing much so long as Tank is healthy.

Goff (like most other quarterbacks) cannot withstand constant pressure. And constant pressure is what he had to deal with. The Lions offensive line just couldn't hold up in pass protection against this dominant Eagles pass rush. It wasn't just one lineman either - it seems like every lineman failed at some point during the night. To be fair, it seems like at least three people along that line was dealing with injuries of some sort - both tackles (Taylor Decker and Penai Sewell) struggled to practice all week. Notably, it seemed to be these two who were letting up the most pressure throughout the game.

No one Eagles defensive player really excelled above the others in terms of pass rush except for Nakobe Dean. Dean was fantastic on the occasions he blitzed. But it's worth noting that Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Moro Ojomo, Jalyx Hunt, and Jaelan Phillips were all eating at one point or another.

I do think Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis were instrumental in terms of stopping the rushing attack - Detroit couldn't really sustain a ground game between the tackles. This inability to rush the ball bled into the rest of their offense and resulted in what will probably be Detroit's worst offensive performance this season when all is said and done.

Philadelphia focusing so much more on mental study than intense practice really pays off - this team stands not only stands as one of the healthiest in the league, but also they're so disciplined and well-studied.

Bears @ Vikings (-3)

Kudos to the Bears for finding ways to run the ball even though Minnesota is playing a six-man front specifically designed to stunt zone runs.

JJ McCarthy will remain a work-in-progress for the foreseeable future. His passes are notably and consistently inaccurate, even on plays where he does not face pressure.

It seems Brian Flores adjusted in the second half by throwing more cornerback blitzes against the Bears backfield. It's an interesting adjustment that's working so far against the run game, but it has left them exposed on a passing game.

Minnesota's linebackers may be a liability all-around. Their coverage responsibilities become all the more greater when Flores sends the cornerbacks on blitzes and yet they cannot really cover. Caleb has been having so much success throwing just outside past the linebackers and in front of the safeties.

These cornerback blitzes just aren't working. Caleb has been picking them apart. And it's not that he's a great quarterback too. I suspect he's being instructed by Ben Johnson to specifically look for these corner blitzes and take advantage of them.

Grady Jarrett may be an elite pass-rusher for these Bears.

Cowboys @ Raiders (+3.5)

It remains to be seen whether the passing of Marshawn Kneeland motivates this Cowboy team. So far in the first two drives, the offense hasn't done much. But the defense has been fairly decent. Then again, when you're facing Geno Smith, it's difficult to look bad.

And just like that, the defense let up major yardage against the Raiders on the third drive. To be fair, the Raiders kept using play-action bootlegs to their benefit to misdirect the Dallas defense and get Geno some easy completions to receivers. The Cowboys were genuinely convinced they would commit to the run early.

This will be one result where complacency theory in its current iteration will get wrong. But I don't think it's a knock on the theory as much as it an indication that it's not fully complete. It's worth noting that the Cowboys are returning from a bye from a game they lost in embarrassing fashion. It's also worth noting the team may be playing with a slightly emotional edge after the death of one of their defensive players a few weeks ago.

It's worth noting that Brian Schottenheimer benched both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens at the start of the game. He wanted to send a message to these players who may have disrespected him earlier in the day.

These Raiders are a lazy bunch all across the roster. No fight, a lack of coordination more than halfway into the season, incredibly poor tackling...all these problems indicate that something is structurally wrong with the Raiders. An organizational tear-down may be the only thing to fix this team.

49ers @ Cardinals (+3)

Brock Purdy is back in form. And this offense is clearly better with him at its helm.

Both teams seem to be primarily targeting the flat in the passing game. Which makes sense. San Francisco's linebacking corps are middling to fair at best. And Arizona is missing the services of its defensive captain and its best player (arguably) in Mack Wilson.

It's worth noting the Cardinals play a complicated form of defense that prioritizes sending defenders to the line of scrimmage and keeping only one defender patrolling the flat before the snap. It's a risky defense primarily aimed at defending against the Shanahan style of offense.

NOTES

I think it's worth considering the idea that certain teams returning from byes may be playing at an advantage. The Bills, and the Chiefs (at least until recently) are such teams, as the coaches for those teams are particularly famous for winning games constantly after the bye. Brian Schottenheimer with the Cowboys may be another one of those coaches. So might Sean McVay.