Bills @ Texans (+5) [Thursday]

Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have been feasting, along with a number of other defenders for the Texans. Houston has been absolutely owning Buffalo in the trenches. It also helps that Spencer Brown is playing somewhat injured.

Cole Bishop is a special player for the Buffalo Bills. Quite possible a blue-chip defensive back for a Buffalo defense that normally prides itself on its strict coverage. His blitzing has been on point.

Buffalo's best plays in the second half came courtesy of James Cook sidestepping defenders on a big run and Josh Allen throwing the ball short to Khalil Shakir against a Houston blitz, leaving the receiver with plenty of space to create yards after the catch.

Without Dalton Kincaid, nobody but Shakir has consistently shown up in the passing game. Buffalo seems to be embracing an identity built around a committee of receivers loosely working together under Josh Allen's watchful eye.

Josh Allen audibly commented "what are we doing" after Buffalo turned the ball on downs after four straight runs. Should be interesting.

Seahawks @ Titans (+13.5)

Is Jeffery Simmons returning going to be that massive bump that the Tennessee defense desperately needs?

I think the Seahawks were too comfortable letting the Titans cruise to some easy points in the second half. Tape review will confirm this.

Vikings @ Packers (-6.5)

Inches away from keeping the chains moving, Kevin O'Connell opted to run the ball up the middle on both plays. It was odd.

JJ McCarthy with roughly 40 passing yards in the first half. This might be a red flag. Without an actionable passing game, Green Bay's defense is free to play everything close to the line of scrimmage.

There's elements of coaching malpractice evident here. The poor special teams discipline, the lack of finesse on the fourth down attempt....something is off with this Minnesota team this year. I find this especially surprising considering the Vikings were killing it just last year thanks in large part to the way the team was being coached up.

Green Bay seems more than comfortable throwing to Christian Watson any time the Vikings follow through on their pre-snap blitz threats.

All right, new rule - when a team is starting a liability at quarterback, the entire offense can be nullified. It doesn't matter how many talented skill players that offense may field....a bad quarterback essentially outweighs all that.

Jets @ Ravens (-13.5)

Lamar just cannot run this year. Something is wrong with him.

Watching the second half, it's clear the Ravens came into the game not giving a damn in the world. Once their hangover cleared up over halftime, they were cooking for the second half - every meaningful offensive drive in the second half resulted in points. Lamar was able to victimize the Jets man coverage in the way that I initially thought he would.

Defensively, it seems like Dre'Mont Jones is the juice this team desperate needed along its defensive front. With Kyle Van Noy now healthy, the Ravens seem to sport a viable pass rush.

Colts @ Chiefs (-3.5)

I need to analyze what Kansas City did to limit the Colts rushing attack. I surmise they were able to limit Taylor by clogging up the middle of the offensive line. With the interior of the offensive line unable to get going, Indianapolis' ground game lost potency.

Rashee Rice evolved into a beastly form today. He was largely the reason the Chiefs won.

Watching tape of the third quarter, the Colts offense played fairly well. The Chiefs do gamble quite a bit on defense and Indianapolis was able to use some of that over-aggression to their advantage. In the red zone though, the Colts found themselves stymied twice, once because of miscommunication and the other time because the Chiefs were too good in coverage.

Eagles @ Cowboys (+3)

I think Dallas might be a little shook. Going for it early on fourth down, two bad drive-ending penalties showing a lack of discipline...not good.

Just like that, the Cowboys had such a promising drive, but a false start the goal line pushed them back far enough to the point where Dak attempted a pass to CeeDee Lamb in double coverage....only for that pass to be picked off. Terrible.

Kavontae Turpin is not suitable as a secondary running back to spell Davonte Williams. He's just not trained in that regard. He's an open-field runner.

Raise Nakobe Dean to blue-chip status.

Jalen Carter and Jalyx Hunt have made a number of impact plays, the former especially against the run. Philadelphia might have the best set of defensive tackles in Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis.

Jaguars @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The second week in a row that Trevor Lawrence is making magic with a set of second-string receivers and castaways - Tim Patrick, Jacoby Meyers, and Parker Washington shouldn't really be lighting things up for Jacksonville, but the Jaguars are making their passing offense work for them.

Devin Lloyd is a gamer for these Jaguars.

The secondary for the Jaguars have been running has been shutting down Arizona's receivers. None of Arizona's receivers can seem to shake themselves loose from the cornerbacks. On top of that, the way Jacksonville seems to be blitzing Arizona is working, as the Jaguars have been having some success sending extra defenders straight through the middle of the trench.

Arizona has cleanly picked Trevor Lawrence off three times. Three times! Whatever slants or post routes that the Jaguars are running, Arizona is getting a beat on them beforehand.

Parker Washington is far better than I took him for. As is Danny Stringow. and Devin Lloyd. Jacksonville has some talent across its roster.

Buccaneers @ Rams (-7)

This game will be very interesting. We will now see what happens when a highly complacent team meets a very injured team traveling all the way out west to play in a primetime spot. Essentially, what happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object?

The Buccaneers have yet to mount an iota of pressure on Stafford outside of one sack from Yaya Diaby that mattered little.

Davonte Adams is the definitive red zone weapon here for Los Angeles.

So far, early in the game, the Rams are doing some fine work exploiting Tampa's injuries. It also helps that the Buccaneers are playing slower than normal given that they're not playing at a optimal time here. But a fully healthy offensive line, Tampa's pass protection hasn't held up well against the Rams defensive front. And it's not like the Buccaneers are scheming their receivers wide open - so much of their success is predicated on sheer talent, which is something they lack.

Patriots @ Bengals (+7.5)

Seeing the way the Bengals defense is fighting is inspiring. This Al Golden defense is starting to take shape.

Geno Smith adds considerable value to the defense as a blitzer. On several occasions has he thrown off Drake Maye with the blitz. What really hasn't worked is the fake blitz - showing a whole bunch of defenders near the line of scrimmage only to back out late.

For eight straight plays in the third quarter, the Bengals prevented the Patriots from breaching the goal line. I think New England's injuries along their offensive front are finally starting to impact them - they're not able to power through against Cincinnati's defensive front. I know the defense was hyped, but that doesn't matter - at some point you have to be able to break through and chew off the few yards necessary to end the drive with a score.

These surprise cornerback blitzes have been troubling Drake Maye all day.

Mike Gesicki can be a real contributor for the Bengals.

Steelers @ Bears (-3)

These Steelers are executing well on their scripted misdirection plays. Those plays have been successful - outside of two plays, all of those plays have yielded significant yardage for Pittsburgh's offense.

Jalen Ramsey is really impressing me on multiple plays in this game. He may be worthy of blue-chip designation.

T.J. Watt (with some assistance from Caleb's ineptitude) singlehandedly led Pittsburgh to a defensive touchdown by forcing a hold on one play and then stripping the ball away from Caleb's hands on the next play.

The Bears actually have the makings of an elite offense here once all the pieces come together. Two solid receivers in DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, promising rookies in Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, a ground game anchored by D'Andre Swift, and a mobile quarterback too. The only thing is the offense can meld together once Caleb gets his act together. He's not doing quite enough to elevate this offense to a higher plane, though he is playing better than last year.

It's pretty clear that Caleb is fairly comfortable playing within this Ben Johnson system. Bootlegs, designed runs, quick passes predicated on pre-snap reads, seam routes, double tight-end sets...it's all coming together.

I truly respect the way Arthur Smith uses pre-snap motion to put more run blockers in position before the defense can react. It also helps to have somebody like Darnell Washington running as your lead blocker.

I have a feeling Caleb has issues with throws towards the numbers. He prefers throwing more towards the middle of the field. I also suspect Caleb struggles on plays that are more drawn out. Should he have to progress to his third or fourth read, things become concerning.

Nahshon Wright has shown up on film a few times in a number of critical moments, most notably in an early game interception. He later busted up a wide receiver screen on one play that ultimately led to Pittsburgh turning the ball over on downs.

One thing I've noticed in the second half - the Bears are no longer biting on the hard fakes that the Steelers are trying to sell them. I see defenders in general staying in position even when it may appear (falsely) that the play is moving away from them. Kudos to Dennis Allen if I continue seeing this on film.

The Steelers' insistence on the cover-three defense on early downs....it frustrates me. It's too easily exploited, especially when you lack the refined talent needed to run it ably.

Kyle Monangai seems to have taken over as the Bears' lead horse in the ground game.

Pittsburgh gambles too much in pass protection on plays where they try to get crafty. Yet another problem I have with the team.

The Bears lack an elite pass rusher. Montez Sweat is the team's best pass rusher, but I consider him to be a red-chip rusher. Grady Jarrett shows promise, but he didn't flash much at all this game.

Panthers @ 49ers (-7)

Christian McCaffrey is a definite blue-chipper for the value he adds to this offense in running and passing.

As a significant underdog, Canales has a history of going for it on fourth down.

Fantastic play by Jaycee Horn for the interception. It's a shame Bryce Young squandered the opportunity by throwing the ball into heavy traffic. Then again, Brock Purdy has been pretty careless with the ball himself, gambling on the deep ball twice only to get picked off.

Jaycee Horn with another great interception. These Panthers mixing up their coverage between man and zone is really messing with Purdy's pre-snap reads.

Bryce Huff is showing up more consistently on a down-to-down basis, even if he's not directly disrupting anything, he's hitting the quarterback or breathing down his neck. He's been the only 49er to make multiple impact plays. Then again, he was going up against a left tackle who let up a sack against Clelin Farrell, of all people. Farrell is so far down the depth chart, he was actually deactivated last week.

Panthers are now down an offensive guard and a linebacker going into the second half. They're relying on third-string linebackers now. And in the third quarter, they're down two cornerbacks, including Jaycee Horn. These injuries should be the death knell for Carolina's hopes of victory in this game.

It's worth noting Brock Purdy is no longer throwing the ball deep in the third quarter after Carolina managed to pick him off three times on those types of throws.

Sicscore was heavily in favor of Carolina in this match on account of San Francisco's injuries on defense, but that didn't seem to matter much. Carolina was only on the cusp of covering because of all the mistakes Brock Purdy kept throwing to their secondary.

Giants @ Lions (-10.5)

The only receiver I see adding great value to Detroit's offense is Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The Giants have some major issues defending against the run, especially when runners traverse outside the tackles. I surmise that finesse runners do better against them than power rushers.

Loving this new Giants offense that seems to be placing more emphasis on creative plays and less designed quarterback runs.

Jameis seems to have a strong preference for slot receivers running towards the boundary. It's been working tremendously for him in this game.

The Giants should have won this game. Even with Darius Slayton not at full strength and Isaiah Hodgins having just joined the team a few weeks prior, New York's offense looked like the better unit in that game.

Detroit's defense has issues, notably along its defensive front. I'm not sure the team has anybody worthy of note outside of Aidan Hutchinson. I saw Al-Quadin Muhammad make his presence known towards the end of the game...but for much of the affair, he was just a ghost.

Detroit's offense also has issues as well. Without Jamison Williams healthy, the only real playmaker among that receivers corp is Amon-Ra St. Brown. I know I sound like a broken record stating this again, but it's true. Thankfully, Jahmyrr Gibbs is there to give this team some juice that the passing game cannot offer.

It's also worth noting that once November arrives, spreads are almost always smartly set. As there's far less uncertainty, the spreads far better reflect the actual handicap between the two teams in any contest.

Quarterbacks that absorb at least six hits a game need to be watched carefully. They might not be right.

Another thing - I need to start keeping track of player health over the course of a season. All these injuries add up over the course of a season, even if formally those players are billed as fully healthy.

I also think I should be more respectful of underdogs who win big. Last couple weeks, I assumed Miami and Jacksonville logged some big wins against solid teams that were considered a tier above them at least. I didn't entirely give either of those wins the full measure of respect they deserved as I thought complacency played a major role in those wins. While I still think complacency played a factor in those wins, there's a difference between being competitive and outright winning against your opponent in domineering fashion. And the Dolphins and the Jaguars were able to do that against the Bills and the Chargers respectively. I think whenever we have these type of games (which aren't all that often), we should note that the winning team may actually be undervalued despite being the beneficiary of complacency.