Bills @ Texans (+5) [Thursday]

Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have been feasting, along with a number of other defenders for the Texans. Houston has been absolutely owning Buffalo in the trenches. It also helps that Spencer Brown is playing somewhat injured.

Cole Bishop is a special player for the Buffalo Bills. Quite possible a blue-chip defensive back for a Buffalo defense that normally prides itself on its strict coverage. His blitzing has been on point.

Buffalo's best plays in the second half came courtesy of James Cook sidestepping defenders on a big run and Josh Allen throwing the ball short to Khalil Shakir against a Houston blitz, leaving the receiver with plenty of space to create yards after the catch.

Without Dalton Kincaid, nobody but Shakir has consistently shown up in the passing game. Buffalo seems to be embracing an identity built around a committee of receivers loosely working together under Josh Allen's watchful eye.

Josh Allen audibly commented "what are we doing" after Buffalo turned the ball on downs after four straight runs. Should be interesting.

Seahawks @ Titans (+13.5)

Is Jeffery Simmons returning going to be that massive bump that the Tennessee defense desperately needs?

I think the Seahawks were too comfortable letting the Titans cruise to some easy points in the second half. Tape review will confirm this.

Vikings @ Packers (-6.5)

Inches away from keeping the chains moving, Kevin O'Connell opted to run the ball up the middle on both plays. It was odd.

JJ McCarthy with roughly 40 passing yards in the first half. This might be a red flag. Without an actionable passing game, Green Bay's defense is free to play everything close to the line of scrimmage.

There's elements of coaching malpractice evident here. The poor special teams discipline, the lack of finesse on the fourth down attempt....something is off with this Minnesota team this year. I find this especially surprising considering the Vikings were killing it just last year thanks in large part to the way the team was being coached up.

Green Bay seems more than comfortable throwing to Christian Watson any time the Vikings follow through on their pre-snap blitz threats.

All right, new rule - when a team is starting a liability at quarterback, the entire offense can be nullified. It doesn't matter how many talented skill players that offense may field....a bad quarterback essentially outweighs all that.

Jets @ Ravens (-13.5)

Lamar just cannot run this year. Something is wrong with him.

Steelers @ Bears (-3)

Jalen Ramsey is really impressing me on multiple plays in this game. He may be worthy of blue-chip designation.

Colts @ Chiefs (-3.5)

I need to analyze what Kansas City did to limit the Colts rushing attack. I surmise they were able to limit Taylor by clogging up the middle of the offensive line. With the interior of the offensive line unable to get going, Indianapolis' ground game lost potency.

Rashee Rice evolved into a beastly form today. He was largely the reason the Chiefs won.

Eagles @ Cowboys (+3)

I think Dallas might be a little shook. Going for it early on fourth down, two bad drive-ending penalties showing a lack of discipline...not good.

Just like that, the Cowboys had such a promising drive, but a false start the goal line pushed them back far enough to the point where Dak attempted a pass to CeeDee Lamb in double coverage....only for that pass to be picked off. Terrible.

Kavontae Turpin is not suitable as a secondary running back to spell Davonte Williams. He's just not trained in that regard. He's an open-field runner.

Raise Nakobe Dean to blue-chip status.

Jalen Carter and Jalyx Hunt have made a number of impact plays, the former especially against the run. Philadelphia might have the best set of defensive tackles in Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis.

Jaguars @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The second week in a row that Trevor Lawrence is making magic with a set of second-string receivers and castaways - Tim Patrick, Jacoby Meyers, and Parker Washington shouldn't really be lighting things up for Jacksonville, but the Jaguars are making their passing offense work for them.

Devin Lloyd is a gamer for these Jaguars.

The secondary for the Jaguars have been running has been shutting down Arizona's receivers. None of Arizona's receivers can seem to shake themselves loose from the cornerbacks. On top of that, the way Jacksonville seems to be blitzing Arizona is working, as the Jaguars have been having some success sending extra defenders straight through the middle of the trench.

Arizona has cleanly picked Trevor Lawrence off three times. Three times! Whatever slants or post routes that the Jaguars are running, Arizona is getting a beat on them beforehand.

Parker Washington is far better than I took him for. As is Danny Stringow. and Devin Lloyd. Jacksonville has some talent across its roster.

Buccaneers @ Rams (-7)

This game will be very interesting. We will now see what happens when a highly complacent team meets a very injured team traveling all the way out west to play in a primetime spot. Essentially, what happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object?

The Buccaneers have yet to mount an iota of pressure on Stafford outside of one sack from Yaya Diaby that mattered little.

Davonte Adams is the definitive red zone weapon here for Los Angeles.

So far, early in the game, the Rams are doing some fine work exploiting Tampa's injuries. It also helps that the Buccaneers are playing slower than normal given that they're not playing at a optimal time here. But a fully healthy offensive line, Tampa's pass protection hasn't held up well against the Rams defensive front. And it's not like the Buccaneers are scheming their receivers wide open - so much of their success is predicated on sheer talent, which is something they lack.

It's also worth noting that once November arrives, spreads are almost always smartly set. As there's far less uncertainty, the spreads far better reflect the actual handicap between the two teams in any contest.

Quarterbacks that absorb at least six hits a game need to be watched carefully. They might not be right.

Another thing - I need to start keeping track of player health over the course of a season. All these injuries add up over the course of a season, even if formally those players are billed as fully healthy.

I also think I should be more respectful of underdogs who win big. Last couple weeks, I assumed Miami and Jacksonville logged some big wins against solid teams that were considered a tier above them at least. I didn't entirely give either of those wins the full measure of respect they deserved as I thought complacency played a major role in those wins. While I still think complacency played a factor in those wins, there's a difference between being competitive and outright winning against your opponent in domineering fashion. And the Dolphins and the Jaguars were able to do that against the Bills and the Chargers respectively. I think whenever we have these type of games (which aren't all that often), we should note that the winning team may actually be undervalued despite being the beneficiary of complacency.