Packers @ Lions (-2.5)

Amon-Ra St. Brown being out early in this game will be instructive. It'll be good to see if the Lions have a functional offense without their biggest contributor.

Jameson Williams has stepped up brilliantly in Amon-Ra's absence.

Green Bay's defensive line has been disappointing me. Outside of Micah Parsons, nobody on that defensive front is stepping up.

Isaiah McDuffie has made his presence known on multiple plays. He's a promising linebacker to watch on Green Bay.

The Packers receiver corps have been notably productive from bunch sets. Romeo Doubs and Dontavyion Wicks in particular has been producing quite a few yards from that concept.

Green Bay's blitz looks have been working against them. Whenever Goff sees a whole bunch of defenders at the line of scrimmage, he's almost always going to audible out to a quick pass. And Green Bay cannot win against these short passes, at least not against Detroit's speed. But I understand the mentality - just keep up the pressure as much as possible on Jared Goff and the returns will eventually come.

Chiefs @ Cowboys (+3.5)

Osa Odigueza and Jadaveon Clowney seem to be the best pass rushers on this Dallas defensive front. Now if Quinnen Williams can round back into top form, Dallas could finally be cooking with gas up front.

The Chiefs are having a hard time finding open receivers in the passing game at the end of the second quarter, even though the Cowboys are likely running a prevent defense.

This Cowboys defense is better than I thought. Jadaveon Clowney has finally rounded into form. Osa Odigueza, Quinnen Williams, and Kenny Clark are all contributing value too, particularly in run defense. Logan Wilson is serviceable too in this Eberflus defense.

The Chiefs losing their right tackle, the left tackle playing with a fractured wrist, and their all-pro starting guard being sidelined is really hurting them - it seems Dallas is able to muster pressure on Mahomes on a regular basis.

Dak moves up into the pocket a bit too much for my liking. A great defensive tackle should be able to exploit that.

These slants were killing Kansas City. I suppose when you blitz heavy, you leave yourself open to the quick pass. And when you have high-caliber receivers like Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, those quick passes can turn into something dangerous.

Penalty luck has been ridiculously in favor of the Cowboys in this game - fraudulent pass interference calls going against the Chiefs, not calling a hold on an important two-point conversion in the fourth quarter that would have helped Kansas retain some momentum...

Bengals @ Ravens (-7)

Joe Burrow looks fine returning from injury. I think it can be safely said that a quarterback returning into action after being sidelined for several weeks probably don't lose much of a step. I do also think a quarterback's determination plays a role in how quickly he returns to form.

Burrow is throwing to receivers being covered tightly. The scheming and pass concepts aren't doing enough to free up space for any of his skill players. Yet another knock on this Zac Taylor offense.

The Bengals defense is starting to step up. We're seeing box defenders other than Joseph Ossai impacting plays - Demetrius Knight, Miles Murphy, Shemar Stuart, etc.

Joe Burrow getting emotional in the post-game really underscored the emotional meaning of this one contest for him.

Bears @ Eagles (-7)

These Eagles are getting gashed by the Bears on the ground early. Their defensive tackles are unable to keep a lid on the ground game.

Working within structure, Caleb is fantastic. Out of structure though, Caleb is frustratingly incompetent.

Goedert is Jalen's security blanket.

Jalen Johnson making his presence known early despite spending multiple weeks on IR just recently.

I don't think DJ Moore and Caleb are on the same page. Moore is either giving up on routes or running them wrongly.

Jaelan Phillips has been Philadelphia's best pass rusher so far.

Caleb has a habit of throwing the ball too low sometimes.

This Fangio defense is supposed to be good against the run, especially considering the high-level defensive tackles anchoring that bear front. And yet the Bears are still chewing off huge yardage against them. What a bizarre game.

Chicago literally missing all their starter linebackers in this game has not mattered much. Yet another reminder that injuries only really matter when they effect players above replacement level.

Sirianni baffles me sometimes with his decision-making. It's clear he's not a good coach. Philadelphia's success last year (just like in 2017) was predicated off the meticulousness of their front office and the genius of their coordinators. This year, Kellen Moore's absence has been sorely felt.

I think certain teams have luck going in their favor in any given season. Generally, this can be determined by team records in what are close games. If a team is winning most of its games that are competitive in the fourth quarter, then it might be indicative of positive vibes. These positive vibes do manifest in the game.