Commanders @ Packers (-3.5) [Thursday]

This Kliff Kingsbury offense is lost on me. I'm not sure if there's a real plan of attack here to leverage the strengths of Washington's skill players. Two straight unsuccessful runs by Austin Ekeler followed by two uninspiring short passes is just not going to get it done.

Key Next-Gen stat - when the Commanders have NOT gotten any pressure on Love, Jordan Love has been virtually perfect. It's only under duress that he's been incompetent.

Even without Jayden Reed and working with mostly depth receivers, Jordan Love is still adamant on throwing the ball deep. I must note this later in the system.

Washington's secondary has been brutally bad. Penalties, blown coverages, slow reactions...

Jayden Daniels seems a bit scared. He's terminating his runs early. On top of that, his passes have been thrown suspiciously short.

Late in the second, the Packers seem to have picked up on Washington's tendency to lob the ball short. Credit to Jeff Hatley.

When up in the second half, Green Bay tends to shift hard to the ground game in order to close out the game. Matt LaFleur has done this now two games in a row.

Rashan Gary still singlehandedly disrupted the play despite being chipped and blocked.

Josh Jacobs is quite adept at shedding initial contact.

Green Bay's secondary has held up remarkably well, even against complete spread formations where depth would be tested.

Giants @ Cowboys (-6)

Russell Wilson cannot really even pass deep. On the first drive, his passes have largely been short. And even then, the accuracy on those passes have been suspect.

James Hudson still being in the game after three straight penalties is really coaching malpractice on Brian Daboll's part.

Good defensive gameplan by the Cowboys, bracketing Nabers in double-coverage. It'll be interesting to see if Daboll adjusts.

Russell Wilson has finally broken out. Four deep passes to the likes of Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson. This offense is actually working today, despite not having much of a running game.

Eberflus runs mostly a zone defense.

Dak Prescott has been rather remarkable throwing the Giants pass rushers off with false cadences.

Once again, Trevon Diggs has been an absolute liability.

Giants are too exhausted for overtime. It says quite a bit about their conditioning (or lack thereof).

Bills @ Jets (+6.5)

I need to check this, but it seems like the Jets are being slammed with defensive holding and pass interference penalties. I know New York tends to play aggressive man coverage here and it seems the referees are punishing them hard for it.

The crossing routes have been absolute money for the Bills.

I guess I was wrong here. The Bills had multiple reasons to play this game complacently. Meanwhile, the Jets are failing to get anything going on offense. What happened to the fire and poise I saw from Justin Fields last week? And Breece Hall isn't finding any creases for some reason...I suspect the Bills are selling out with secondary blitzes to stop the run, forcing New York to otherwise rely on the dropback passing game to matriculate the ball.

Eagles @ Chiefs (+1.5)

Mahomes is adding a physical dimension to his running plays that won't serve him well later in the season.

Broncos @ Colts (+2.5)

Denver's play-action fakes are remarkably well-executed.

Daniel Jones and his read options are pretty bad on the other hand. Twice, the Colts surrendered a drive on bad read-option plays.

This Lou Anuramo secondary is just too recklessly physical for its own good.

Indianapolis is way too committed to its runs, even when the box is loaded.

Daniel Jones has adequately demonstrated a willingness to throw the ball deep to the likes of

Seahawks @ Steelers (-3)

Falcons @ Vikings (-3)

It just dawned on me that the Vikings run quite light on defense. Which makes them susceptible to teams capable of running the ball, as Atlanta is demonstrating early.

Given Zac Robinson's background as a Sean McVay understudy, not too surprising to see the Falcons offense embrace zone runs and bootlegs.

Buccaneers @ Texans (-2.5)

Looks like Houston employs quite a bit of dime personnel on third downs.

Houston's defense seems like it runs a bit light in terms of personnel.

Tampa incorporates the screen game quite a bit on offense.

Tampa was a major beneficiary of some officiating luck on one touchdown drive.

Bucky Irving is a star. I respect the yardage he collects after contact. It's probably the biggest reason why the Buccaneers have more yards rushing than passing.

Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are names worth watching. Not sure if they can truly be considered blue-chip elite players, but both players are the dominant pieces along the defensive front. Against Tampa's second-string tackles,

Haason Reddick has yet to make a strong impression. It's been the blitzes that have compromised Houston's offense more often than not. That and the rushing defense.

Baker Mayfield is too reckless sometimes. The way he jeopardizes his own health to try and win the game is admirable, but it doesn't win you games later in the season.

Chargers @ Raiders (+3)

Seeing the Raiders botch plays here and there is testament yet again to this idea of volatility.

I still contend Geno Smith is barely above replacement-level.

DaQuan Jones is on the Chargers? Really?!

Daiyon Henley is definitely a blue-chip player.

Interesting decision by the Chargers to commit to a tush push play in order to escape the shadow of their own end zone after a major turnover.

It's worth noting that these Chargers seem to be jumping in front of the out breaking routes. It's led to three pass break-ups and one interception.

Every yard gained by the Raiders is a painful yard. Kudos to this Chargers defense for wrecking the Vegas game plan on offense.

BURNING QUESTIONS

Why were the Jets horrible on offense this week considering they lit up Pittsburgh last week?

Watching the game last week, I noticed the Jets offense leans heavily into read-option runs and out routes to generate production. These concepts are probably leveraged as they best maximize Justin Fields' talents. Combine that with the threat of Fields running and New York was able to generate enough success on offense to rack up points.

But New York isn't having that same level of success this week because their early down plays are getting blown up early prematurely. Once Buffalo sees Justin Fields under center, they're more than happy blitzing cornerbacks into the backfield, even if it means leaving receivers completely uncovered. The sad thing though is it works. If Fields hands it off to a running back, that back is met immediately by a corner. And even if Fields were to keep the ball, the defense would likely pressure him before he even realizes that Buffalo's left one of his skill players completely open.

One thing worth noting - I think Pittsburgh runs something close to what Buffalo fundamentally runs on defense. It's mostly a nickel defense with Jalen Ramsey hovering down in the box from time to time in a star defender role. One key difference though - Pittsburgh really prefers organizing members of its secondary into cover-three alignment. Buffalo is usually a cover-two team (unless Sean McDermott finally changed things up this year).

One more thing worth noting - Buffalo was able to sustain multiple drives on offense, primarily by exposing all the man coverage the Jets tend to employ on key downs. Why are the Jets so horrifically awful at times covering receivers man-to-man? Well, for one thing...it's an entirely new philosophy for this unit. We need to keep in mind that Robert Saleh primarily installed zone coverage principles into the defense during his three years with the Jets - at this point, the back lines of the defense are habituated mentally to zone coverage schemes. Reconditioning players to a new style of coverage is going to take weeks, if not months.

How the Lions offense dominated despite facing down somebody who knows that unit quite well...

How the Broncos almost won despite being outdone across most stats

How was Russell Wilson so much better this week compared to last week

MISCELLANEOUS NOTES

The Go Long blog had an excellent write-up regarding Ryan Pols and the futility of his drafts. His drafts have been particularly horrendous considering many of the players he selected over the past three years are so bad that they're no longer in the league. We also can't forget the way he squandered draft picks to sign Chase Claypool and Montez Sweat. Claypool is no longer with the Bears and Sweat's services could have been bought anyway had Pols been patient enough to wait until the offseason to sign him.