One thing I want to focus on is this theory I’m putting forth regarding teams facing each other again in the postseason shortly after having met sometime towards the tail end of the regular season. The thesis here is that those teams that perform worse than expected in those regular season affairs then tend to exceed expectations in playoff rematches. We’ve saw this happen with Baltimore against Cincinnati, New York against Minnesota, and Philadelphia against New York. It can be argued that Seattle belongs on this list as well, so long as you go by yardage instead of score.

We saw this before in the past, most notably with the Chargers stunning the Ravens in the wild card round back in 2018, the Rams rallying to a late victory against the 49ers last year in the conference round, and Baltimore upsetting the Broncos in 2012 en route to the Super Bowl. But we’ve also seen instances when this theory didn’t carry much water - for example, the Patriots were embarrassed by the Bills in the wild card round last year, even after losing to them in pretty decisive fashion just a few weeks prior. So more work is needed to tailor the theory into something far more predictive of future outcomes - we cannot just assume rematches always lead to better results from the loser. Some teams simply aren’t built to improve upon their past performances. So why is that?

The past couple years, we’ve seen the Patriots and the Steelers contradict this theory in their matches against the Bills and the Browns respectively. What’s especially bizarre is that both organizations are led by head coaches known for their steely demeanor and discipline. Is it possible Bill Belichick is showing his age and Mike Tomlin is burned out in Pittsburgh? Maybe. At least Tomlin has a credible excuse - he was trotting out the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger to helm his offense at the time. Cleveland was able to build a ridiculous lead by capitalizing on Ben’s mistakes early in the game. As for New England, it’s been alleged that their defense is way too old to keep up with the younger talent in the league. More specifically, their most critical players can no longer cover the breadth of the field as quickly as before. Buffalo simply took advantage of this major flaw through crossing routes and smartly crafted rushing plays incorporating the quarterback.

So not sure where to go here or what this may imply about the upcoming duel between Cincinnati and Kansas City this weekend. While this theory holds sway the majority of the teams, exceptions do exist, proving that further caveats need to be defined here before this rule can be properly leveraged in the future.

EDIT: Looking back at the set of matches between Pittsburgh and Cleveland, I don’t think that’s an exception after all. In the regular season match, the Steelers actually covered the spread and nearly won the game outright as double-digit underdogs. So if anything, Cleveland underwhelming in the regular season only to dominate in the postseason contest reinforces the theory.

SECOND EDIT: Remember the Giants back in 2011.

Philadelphia and San Francisco may have been a much closer game had Brock Purdy not been injured early and the referees not favor the Eagles as much. Once it became obvious that these referees weren’t giving San Francisco the leeway needed to be physical in coverage, the 49ers lost some teeth on defense. Combined with a nonexistent passing game, this contest was over in the second quarter.

Kansas seems to have adjusted well after losing to Cincinnati in the regular season. The defense has managed to rack up three sacks so far against Joe Burrow on his first six snaps. Pretty shocking to see this vaunted Bengals offense play so pathetically.

So Cincinnati finally shored up its holes in pass protection midway through the game, although things naturally fell apart in the fourth quarter where it matters most. Chris Jones was sensational. The Chiefs were much more comfortable blitzing Burrow too and sending defensive backs down closer to the line of scrimmage to take out any outlet throws. The fact that Burrow kept getting hit and sacked so much today was testament to their excellent game planning.

Would Cincinnati have won if injuries didn’t rob them of key trench players? Probably. Missing three starting offensive linemen really depressed their ground game - Mixon couldn’t chew off much yardage on his rushes. Furthermore, it’s clear to me Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are nowhere close to peak form coming off late season injuries. Hendrickson in particular had virtually no impact on this game. It would have been much better starting Joseph Ossai in his place. I noticed Hubbard a few times, but he failed to make a meaningful impact on any single play. Without either of their star pass rushers playing at full potential, Mahomes was far too comfortable operating from the pocket.

If there’s one thing that’s evident though, it’s that having played the Bengals just several weeks prior really helped the Chiefs. Kansas came out with a defensive game plan that prevented Burrow and company from gaining any sort of rhythm on offense. All their points came through painstaking effort that simply couldn’t be sustained once the contest went into the fourth quarter. So let this be definitive proof that recent rematches taking place in the postseason favor the loser from the first match, period.

All these factors played a role in helping Kansas City overcome their limitations on offense and take home the AFC championship.

One of the biggest questions about my grades this year was whether Mahomes was deserving of elite status. So far on the first drive of the game coming out off the bye weekend, Mahomes has made me look pretty stupid considering he’s been nothing short of sensational through the first quarter.

Unfortunately though….an untimely injury will prevent me from promoting Mahomes to elite level. After a Jaguars defender tackled him awkwardly by landing on his shin, Mahomes was only able to finish the game on one leg. It’s almost certain he sustained a high-ankle sprain, an injury that takes at least a few weeks to fully heal. Without a leg at full strength, expect his passes to lack some punch. Not only that, but his improvisational ability takes a serious hit now that’s he’s unable to dance gracefully in the pocket to avoid pressure.

The real question becomes just how much the Chiefs offense will be set back by this. I assume this won’t really hurt the connection between Mahomes and Travis Kelce much given their special connection and the latter’s penchant for reading gaps in coverage. But I suspect the other receivers will see a diminished role going forward now that their quarterback is really unable to work the deeper parts of the field much. If that presumption holds true, that the Chiefs only have two vectors on offense - Kelce and Isaiah Pacheco / Jerick McKinnon.

Jacksonville has played too ugly in this game against the Chiefs. Maybe it’s reflective of their head coach’s free-wheeling management style or perhaps it’s a symptom of their youth. Either way, the Jaguars have made way too many critical mistakes - Jamal Agnew letting the ball slip out of his hands just a few yards away from the end zone, Trevor Lawrence throwing some ugly balls under duress, offensive linemen failing to communicate protection responsibilities to one another, defensive linemen constantly finding themselves out of position to make any impact, etc.

In light of all the young teams that have been succeeding in the postseason recently ( the Bengals of last year being one of them)…I’m inclined to think this is a lack of discipline set in part by the way Pederson coaches this team. Pederson seems like the type of guy who approaches team-building and culture a little too lazily - as a result, not enough attention is paid to detail and technique. So not only is this club inadequately prepared to handle various game scenarios, but the club’s also more prone to mistakes, especially during moments of high tension. Of course, if this were true, that would make his 2017 Super Bowl run all the more remarkable. But that 2017 Philadelphia team had a few positive traits differentiating themselves from this 2022 Jacksonville organization, namely excellent coordinators as well as a more complete roster on both sides of the ball. Specifically speaking, Philadelphia was stacked at the skill player position as well as their defensive front, something that these Jaguars were missing in the worst way possible today in their game against the Chiefs.

Cincinnati has come into this game well-prepared and with a few tricks up its sleeve. Kudos to Zac Taylor.

More importantly, the Bengals have seen a resurgence in their rushing game as well as their pass rush, both of which were obviously missing last week against the Ravens. Cincinnati’s defensive line has gotten the better of Buffalo’s offensive line consistently. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon is chewing off yardage at six yards a clip.

I’ll be tracking Cincinnati’s defensive pressures here.

Joseph Ossai: I
Trey Hendrickson: ||
Sam Hubbard: ||
Cam Sample:
D.J Reader: I
B.J Hill: II

Buffalo’s game plan is disapointing. It’s obvious Cincinnati has real issues defending the six-back attack as evident by the game last week against the Ravens. A winning game plan would call for Josh Allen to run the ball more than usual. But it seems like Buffalo never received that memo.

Also, these Bills are clearly not comfortable in the snow. So strange considering Buffalo should be very comfortable playing in winter conditions. This says something about the way Sean McDermott manages this club.

San Francisco and Dallas was a competitive game until the fourth quarter. I think the Cowboys ran out of juice. I question their conditioning considering the 49ers were doing nothing but running the ball on the second to last drive. Yet, that was enough to chew off most of the game clock in the fourth quarter and give them a field goal to insure the win.

On top of that, Dak Prescott was absolutely horrendous. My original instinct to label him a liability may have been more accurate than ever. His wild card game would then stand as a freaky outlier.

One thing that this weekend has made abundantly clear is that teams with two weeks to prepare against a postseason opponent can play far above their pay grade. The Giants had two weeks to strategize against the Vikings and that preparation resulted in a fantastic win in Minnesota. Likewise, it’s somewhat obvious Dallas spent the last week of the regular season devising a game plan for the Buccaneers - it’s the only way I can explain why the Cowboys offense against Tampa Bay was damn near unstoppable and how Prescott had no issue reading the blitzes that Todd Bowles was throwing at him. For somebody to demonstrate such an ability just now at this point in the year would be absolutely bizarre.

This is a dynamic that needs to be kept in mind going forward in the future.

Jalen Hurts doesn’t quite have the same pop in his designed runs compared to earlier in the season. It’s pretty telling Philadelphia opted not to run him right away once the game started, instead waiting until late in the first drive to finally give him the option to go.

Meanwhile, all of the Eagles other tailbacks have no problem gashing this Giants defense for big yardage.

Philadelphia and their blitzing has been fairly sensational. Haasan Riddick is indisputably that team’s best pass rusher.

Samson Ebukam is a name I may have missed when evaluating San Francisco’s pass rushers.

Now that wild card weekend is over, let’s revise the grading for some of the teams. Also, let’s pare down that grading rubric now that playoff experience is immaterial for the remaining teams.

Notice that the Bengals had their grading adjusted. Given all their injuries along the offensive line as well as the general lack of creativity behind their offense, I’m worried Cincinnati may have lost some of their power on that side of the ball. Unlike their defense, the Bengals are way too reliant on talent alone carrying the day offensively. So when key personnel on that unit are injured, expect production to seriously decline, as Zac Taylor isn’t smart enough to work around setbacks.

Purdy started out a bit shaky (perhaps due to playoff jitters), but was able to play better ball in the second half. Once Purdy settled down and the 49ers were able to build a comfortable lead, the game was effectively. Seattle really doesn’t have a history this year of mounting comebacks, so it’s hard to imagine them doing just that against one of the best defenses in the league.The game went (more or less) as predicted. Seattle did surprise me with some creative plays in the first half, but only so many of those plays can be drawn up in a week. Once those new tactics were exhausted, Seattle didn’t really have much else at their disposal to confuse San Francisco’s defense.

The Chargers blowing out the Jaguars in the first half was a little shocking. If there’s any doubt otherwise, let this be yet further proof that coaching really does matter. Both of these teams are similar in construction too, making this result all the more unexpected. But Brandon Staley instructed his defensive backs to play closer to the line of scrimmage and that seems to have made all the more difference - Trevor Lawrence has been unable to connect on those short throws that have been critical in helping this Jaguars offense build some rhythm. Without those routes in the flat, Jacksonville’s offense has been effectively neutered.

Yet, in the second half….all that didn’t matter. Jacksonville was able to stage the third largest comeback in postseason history. The Chargers only managed to post up three points while the Jaguars did just enough to steal away the win at the very end. I’m still not entirely certain what happened in the second half either. The inside routes were there as well as the occasional deep shots. It’s not like the Jaguars suddenly changed tune from the third quarter onward and committed to a style of football different from one that prioritizes short and efficient passing.

It’s possible Los Angeles simply decided to run out the clock after halftime, absolutely oblivious to Jacksonville’s recent history of near-miraculous comebacks. Or it’s possible that the Jaguars were collectively stricken by anxiety given this was the first foray into the postseason for so many people across that roster. I need to rewatch this game just to see what exactly changed between the two halves. Either way, kudos to the Jaguars or winning their first playoff game in the Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence era.

UPDATE: It looks to me that Jacksonville was racked by nerves. Trevor Lawrence in particular had a Jekyll-and-Hyde style transformation between the two halves. The quarterback who threw four interceptions in the early two quarters was not the same man who came out in the second half and rallied his offense back from a four-score deficit.

Doug Pederson should have simplified the playbook entering the game, knowing full well so many of his boys would be experiencing a playoff game for the first time in their lives. We saw this before too back when he won it all with Philadelphia with Nick Foles as the field marshal on offense. Even though the Eagles would stun the world by keeping the offense productive through the postseason despite the loss of their starting passer, their first playoff game was a rough one to watch. It was a low-scoring affair and one that had to be settled by a late field goal.

One more thing worth noting is that Travon Walker seems to have caught his groove in the second half as well, given the way he was always invading Herbert’s personal space.

What a hilarious comedy of errors this Bills game against the Dolphins has become. Josh Allen’s mistakes have been single-handedly responsible for Miami taking the lead in the third quarter. Skylar Thompson hasn’t done much predictably.

That being said, Miami has a very good foundation here with a defensive loaded with stars along its defensive front. To nail Josh Allen for seven sacks isn’t easy for any defense, period. If the Dolphins can sew up some loose threads along that offense, expect a team that should be competitive in the foreseeable future.

One of the reasons I thought the Vikings would have the upper hand in their contest against the Giants would be their experience in elimination game scenarios. Other than one mistake from Daniel Bellinger, New York hasn’t shown me anything indicating that this playoff atmosphere is too much for them to handle. I might need to rethink the value of playoff experience. Even if the team’s saddled with the yips, how long is it really expected to last?

I think I might need to shift more attention to special teams and field goal kickers instead. Maybe assess field goal kickers making their first postseason start and see how well they tend to perform versus league average.

UPDATE: Rewatched the tape of the Giants on defense. It was a very impressive showing from Dexter Lawrence. I recorded about five quarterback hits from him alone. He was harassing Kirk all day. It goes without saying that without Dexter, I’m not sure if the Giants would have won this game.

No one else from that defensive front really showed up consistently. Kayvon has a high motor though, as evidenced by him chasing down ball carriers every now and then.

The Bengals worry me. Even if they win against the Ravens, this game revealed some serious deficiencies, namely that defensive front. I picked the Bengals to win the Super Bowl this year based on the contingency that some of their top defensive linemen will round into elite form in the playoffs. It’s not happening. Trey Hendricksen, Sam Hubbard, and even D.J. Reader have whiffed a number of times tonight on critical plays.

On top of that, Tee Higgins may be overrated. And if that’s the case and their ground game is unable to get going against Baltimore’s front, then they only have one viable weapon on offense - Ja’Marr Chase.

A team missing any teeth on both offense and defense isn’t cut for the championship. Did I really misread this club that badly or is there another dynamic involved here that I’m missing? Nobody tends to play Cincinnati tougher than the Ravens, in part because John Harbaugh and his coaching staff have a keen understanding of Cincinnati’s tendencies on offense.

It’s similar to what I saw two years ago when the Buccaneers played the Saints in the divisional round. Tampa played well, but fortune was on their side as well that day - untimely injuries and Brees trying to play through injury were major factors that contributed to Tampa winning the game and going on to win the Super Bowl. Otherwise, it’s possible their feelings of inferiority against the New Orleans would have been too much to overcome.

Last year was another similar story too, except the other way around - the Rams were able to go to Tampa Bay and comfortably win because the latter has a serious inferiority complex against the former. Even though Brady and company tried to make things interesting toward the end, it didn’t matter much - the Rams had too big a lead for Tampa to surmount.

I can’t wait for this lame-ass team to be bounced from the playoffs. No offense to these Ravens, but this team is limping into the playoffs. This team has suffered three losses in their past five contests. To add insult to injury, a third-string rookie quarterback who wasn’t even talked about much coming out of college is now expected to start for them in their play-off match against Cincinnati. Even if Tyler Huntley starts,. his health has been called into question - his throwing shoulder has been on the mend now for the past couple weeks.

Expect this team to be nothing more than a stepping stone for the Bengals as they journey to the Super Bowl.

I’m not sure if Dallas is any better now than they were last year entering the postseason. Dak Prescott seems to have regressed a bit. Not only does he seem a little disconnected from his skill players, but his interception numbers have been plain ugly - Dak leads the league in interceptions this season despite having only played 12 games. Eight of those interceptions have come in the past five weeks alone. When you combine that statistic with the lack of charisma in his quarterbacking, it’s hard to grade him as anything but a liability as a passer. Maybe I’m wrong here, but I need to see something on tape showing me that Dak can assume the mantle of production when the team faces adversity.

On a positive note, the club has plenty of weaponry on offense. Defensively though, the unit’s been showing warts. Up front, nobody but Micah Parsons has shown an ability to dominate in the trenches. DeMarcus Lawrence was expected to be the yin to Parsons' yang, but age seems to have finally whittled him down.

Honestly, expect a tough match against Tampa. Even though the Cowboys are favored, a home team upset is very possible. I’m not sure if Kellen Moore has enough tricks up his sleeve to confuse Tampa’s defense on multiple drives here. If Bowles can find ways to suffocate Prescott in the pocket, the Cowboys will end another season on a depressing note.

I feel comfortable enough pinning the Eagles as the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. It’s hard to find anything not to like about this team.

Sure, they’ve stumbled into the postseason on a bit of a cold note after finishing their last three regular season games with two losses, but their recent downturn can be attributed to Jalen Hurts seriously injuring his shoulder. Without Hurts, not only do they lose one of their more explosive weapons on offense, but they lose the field marshal operating their offense. Gardner Minshew did well enough in relief duty, but he can only give the team so much given his limitations. Minshew’s not necessarily good enough to orchestrate comebacks or weather rough tides. Other people raising the alarm on this club point to the last game of the season, where they had to gut out a win against a Giants team that didn’t even bother starting any players with a modicum of value. Once again, Jalen Hurts' injury was limiting his production - just look at his rushing numbers.

It’s clear Hurts' shoulder will be dragging him down a bit over the postseason. But that being said, Philadelphia has enough areas of strength to carry them through two postseason contests as Hurts recovers from his injury. Unless Jalen aggravates his shoulder or trips into another injury, Philadelphia stands as a championship favorite in my book.

One more thing worth noting here before I close out this post - their pass rusher situation. On paper, their defensive front is an embarrassment of riches - Haason Reddick, Javon Hargrove, Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, Ndamukong Suh, etc. On tape though, I’ve only been impressed by one player, Haason Reddick. The rest haven’t been consistent enough to merit designation as an elite pass rusher. In all fairness, the Eagles love swapping players in and out to keep them fresh, so their impact opportunities are limited. Watching the tape in their games against the Giants as well as the second game against the Cowboys, Fletcher Cox seems to have flashed a handful of times, so I’m willing to consider him as a potentially elite player, but I suspect his better days are way behind him. I know Javon Hargrove and Josh Sweat have racked up solid numbers this season, but the former seems to have run up his numbers against easy competition while the latter has struggled to close out the season on a positive note. It doesn’t help that Sweat’s now dealing with a neck injury that’s kept him sidelined for multiple weeks. With all that in mind though, I still think Philadelphia’s defensive front will feast throughout the postseason - they have too many good players not to. Even if only one player along that line deserves to be labelled as great, the other players will all find ways to contribute.

The Chargers are such a promising team. An elite quarterback, three certified premiere weapons on offense, experience in elimination games, and an aptitude for staging comebacks lends this club some serious championship credence. Dare I say this team could be the wild card that surprises everybody in the playoffs this year.

The only downside here is their lack of top-shelf pass rushers. Having broken out the past several weeks once the defensive coaches shifted their philosophy on blitzing, Kyle Van Noy has now earned his billing as an elite pass rusher. But the other edge rushers along that defensive front have fallen short. Khalil Mack has lost a step since his younger days in Chicago. Joey Bosa will likely not return to form in the playoffs after a groin tear left him sidelined for most of the season. Without at least two truly dominant defensive ends, it’ll be near impossible for the Chargers to survive three straight road contests in the postseason. I know Los Angeles has leaned harder into the blitz to compensate for their lack of pass rush production up front, but good offensive minds will eventually exploit any gaps in coverage left behind by blitzing players. Kyle Van Noy is only good for so many impact plays, so expect this new love of the blitz to cost the Chargers eventually.

It’s possible Los Angeles can navigate their way to the conference championship. We shall see.

EDIT: Mike Williams is pretty much lost for the rest of the playoffs. And with that loss, the Chargers no longer have enough horses to field a complete offense. On a positive note, Brandon Staley may be fired when everything is said and done. Allowing his best players to record snaps last week when the game was completely meaningless was coaching malpractice, plain and simple.