Panthers @ Packers (-3.5)

Carolina is desperate trying to overcompensate for their lack of pass rush with the blitz. The problem is that Jordan Love has been masterful in navigating around the blitz with quick/leading throws. Missing Jaelon Phillips and Bobby Brown has left this defensive line bereft of serious pass rushing talent.

Meanwhile, Carolina's offensive line has been lousy at pass protection. The left tackle Rasheed Walker has once again emerged as a serious point of weakness.

And for some reason, Bryce Young isn't trusting himself enough to throw into tight coverage and small windows. He's double-cocking the ball and second guessing himself. His mentality is to be questioned here.

When this pocket crushes down quickly on Bryce Young, it compromises his vision. His best throws have arguably come outside the pocket.

This Carolina offense has been predictable. First downs are almost always running plays. Where are the short routes and the quick throws? Where are the hot reads outside of Chuba Hubbard? What is Dave Canales and Brad Idzik doing here to make life easier for Bryce Young? Especially when they should be aware of how mentally fragile he is.

Cardinals @ Cowboys (-7)

These Cardinals have no ground game. Jeremiyah Love is on the verge of being a bust because Arizona's ground game has been depressingly pathetic.

Both of Arizona's tackles have been liabilities. Too much pressure has been bearing down on Jacoby Brissett from what has otherwise been an average defensive line.

I think it's fair to say Arizona has reached a point where they no longer start believing in themselves. They had every reason to overperform today and they just could not take advantage.

The same success the Cardinals experienced defensively against this Cowboys offense last year has not been seen today. As if I needed any more proof, there's no doubt that Nick Rallis is a green-chip coordinator. And Mike LaFleur's supervision of this team needs to be called into question as well, given that he retained Rallis from last year's regime.

Jacoby Brissett has overstayed his welcome. The minute Arizona finally (smartly) benched Jacoby Brissett, this offense has become remarkably productive. Something about Brissett held this offense back. We've seen something like this happen before with the likes of Easton Stick in Los Angeles.

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Penix once again has demonstrated softness here in a rough start to the Buccaneers. This is concerning. His mentality needs to be questioned going forward.

The Buccaneers offense is playing things very safe, running on 3rd and 8. Their strategy involves leaning on their defense to carry the day.

Tampa's running game has found renewed life over the past couple week. It's been entirely their ground game carrying their offense today.

Kevin Stefansky attempting a power run against this stout Buccaneer defense on 4th and 2 is the height of foolishness. Then again, if he can't rely on Penix to matriculate the ball, his hands are somewhat tied behind his back.

I think just like last week, Todd Bowles has keyed in on some of the Falcons' offensive tendencies, notably their in-breaking routes.

I'm convinced bad weather turns Penix soft. Hard rain and a little inclement weather is too much for the boy to handle. He has a reputation for taking care of the ball, but four interceptions in 16 attempts is way too concerning for me to ignore.

Baker Mayfield has been absolutely useless today outside of a nice scramble or two.

Atlanta cannot contain runs that pull to the left. It's a weak point that Tampa has repeatedly exposed time and time again today. Just one weakness is all these Buccaneers need to to mow down their opponents in the ground game.

Credit to Tampa's special teams for showing up big in today's game and constantly pinning Atlanta deep on their own end of the field. A blue-chip designation may need to be awarded here to the coach.

Browns @ Steelers (-3.5)

Steelers defense is committing harder to the blitz on defense. And it's working spectacularly. I'm also quite certain the Steelers are now adequately covering the likes of KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston.

Vikings @ Lions (-3.5)

The Lions were able to roast the Vikings in the second half with their ground game. Minnesota's lighter defensive personnel were no match for the high-powered Detroit ground game.

Chargers vs. Rams (-6.5)

Tuli Tulipalotu showing up early on multiple snaps.

The Chargers are introducing some new trickery concepts into their offense finally.

Without any skill players, the Chargers are legitimately dead men walking on offense. Ladd McConkey cannot stay healthy and the sorry state of the offensive line effectively kills any hope of a sustainable ground game. I'm not sure any amount of complacency can fix this too. Complacency can be a great equalizing force, but you need the requisite talent to make use of it.

So Mike McDaniel needs to be shot for trying to change Herbert's mechanics. The last thing you want to do is try to change the way a quarterback has been moving his entire life. Comfort is paramount, especially when his mechanics have been working favorably for him anyway.

Herbert might be psychologically done for the season. He hasn't thrown down the field much. It'll be worth seeing what his air yards per attempt total out to after this game ends. I worry that he hasn't fully recovered from the way he mentally collapsed last year in the postseason.

Chiefs @ Broncos (+1.5)

Xavier Worthy should be designated a green-chip player. The Chiefs are doing everything to make him viable, but he's been worthless.

Rookie tailback Emmett Johnson has been sensational in this game. Do I smell another breakout player emerging on this team?

Bo Nix's passes have been getting batted downward way too much. He doesn't put enough air under his passes, it seems.

The Chiefs short-yardage option has been infuriating to watch. Everything is about yards after the catch. Nothing is opening up down the field. No wonder they're so desperate to try and engineer a deep threat in Xavier Worthy. If it wasn't for Emmett Johnson unexpectedly breaking out, this Chiefs offense would be dead in the water. Vector optionality is a very real concern for the Chiefs.

Andy Reid is playing things way too conservatively. Punting the ball away on fourth-and-inches in the third quarter was depressing.

Eagles @ Commanders (-5.5)

Is Treylon Burks really emerging as a first-line receiver? Only the numbers will tell the story. Antonio Williams is another receiver too worth keeping an eye on.

Washington has the bones there for an elite box defense. Frankie Luvu, Sonny Styles, Dorance Armstrong, K'Lavon Chaisson, and Daron Payne are solid players that one can build an elite defense around.

Colts @ Jaguars (-9.5)

I think even in a horrific losing effort, Jaylahn Tuimoloau still stood out. Put him on blue-chip watch. He's been sensational lately.

LESSONS LEARNED

Complacency only helps when the team has enough requisite talent on both sides of the ball. When they lack that talent and/or have failed before in other similar situations where complacency favored them….be wary. That team may be snakebitten. In this case, the Chargers are most certainly snakebitten.

Weather matters, especially against quarterbacks used to operating inside domes and/or temperate climates. Be more mindful of this going forward.

Start tracking skill players on an EPA basis week in and week out.