Owl's Picks

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Baltimore Ravens
Passer Evaluation
Lamar Jackson
(Adequate)
Premiere Offensive Weapons
1 point for the first player
2 points for the second player
4 points for each successive player
Lamar Jackson (Mobile QB)
Derrick Henry
Zay Flowers
Mark Andrews
Elite Defensive Linemen
4 points per player
Kyle Van Noy
Nmandi Madubuike
Odafe Oweh
Elite Coverage Defenders
2 points per player
Kyle Hamilton
Marlon Humphrey
Number of Successful Comebacks
2 points if the team successfully staged exactly 2 comebacks
3 points if the team staged more than 2 comebacks
4
Number of Comebacks Surrendered
2 points if the team surrendered exactly 2 comebacks
3 points if the team surrendered fewer than 2 comebacks
2
Tactical Edges Lost
Only impacts a team's grade when that team is facing against another club listed here. The more teams listed here, the worse a team's odds of advancing
OffenseDefense
Steelers
Texans
Chargers
Broncos
Bills
Buccaneers
Steelers
Texans
Chargers
Broncos
Buccaneers
Tactical Edges Gained
Only impacts a team's grade when that team is facing against another club listed here. The more teams listed here, the better a team's odds of advancing
OffenseDefense
Eagles
Bills
GRADE14 - 32

The DVOA champion this year can be counted as a contender for the Super Bowl. But whereas DVOA focuses more on grading a team's overall success rate on a down-to-down basis, my model here places a great deal more weight on star players, mental toughness, and recent experience. The star players aspect is what's really interesting. What Baltimore really needs are skill players and pass rushers to break out in the passing game and defensive line, respectively. I see the former happening given that Mark Andrews has been steadily contributing more and more value to the offense these past couple weeks. As for the latter, it's hard to assess whether Nmandi Mdabukike or Odafe Oweh will be able to take over the game and exert their wills at any point during the postseason. Neither man has really jumped out on tape except in spot moments. I personally think Nmandi is on a bit of an upward swing compared to Odafe and has more potential given his absolutely fantastic season last year, so take that for what it's worth.

I suspect Baltimore might struggle a bit in the first round against the Steelers given their animosity against one another as well as the fact that Baltimore ceded the entire tactical edge against them just a few weeks prior. If they can survive Pittsburgh, dates with Buffalo and Kansas City lie ahead. It's hard to tell how far these Ravens will go.