All right, so I spent the past week studying why I so badly handicapped a couple of the Wild Card games. I think I've uncovered yet another rule that needs to be incorporated into my grading rubric. I'll discuss this finding in another post. For now, let's analyze the division round games. My grading model should hold up fairly well this week.

Texans @ Chiefs (-8.5)

So far, the model is on point. Kansas City is struggling on offense largely thanks to the combination of Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson, and Denico Autry constantly wreaking havoc in the backfield The Cheifs seem to be returning the favor though on the other side, as Chris Jones, George Karloftis, and Charles Omenihu have had some big plays of their own against C.J. Stroud.

The weather doesn't seem to be impacting the Texans all too much, although it can Ka'imi Fairbairn did whiff pretty badly on a field goal attempt thanks in part to the weather. Then again, it's more likely the kicker was just distracted by the gunner who timed the snap perfectly.

The Texans are making a living throwing directly over the centerline of the field on third downs. Maybe Slowik keyed in on a hole in the Chiefs' coverage schemes? And yet, Spagnuolo has not adjusted in the second half. The Texans were literally without Nico Collins for half the drive and Stroud was still able to make some hay by throwing to receivers across the middle of the field.

Finally in the fourth quarter, this Kansas defense is impressing its will on the Texans, largely through A-gap blitzes.

I'm telling you - the tactical edges theory is holding up here so far. Houston is putting up one hell of a fight. Mahomes passing numbers have been pretty atrocious by his own standards. With Kelce, Xavier Worthy, and a number of other weapons on offense, the Chiefs should be putting up better numbers than this. It's not even that the Texans are suffocating him with their pass rush either - sometimes Mahomes is just sitting in the pocket holding the ball and looking lost.

But just like that, the Chiefs finally popped off in the fourth quarter once all their adjustments were cemented. I need to trust my instinct more and not cash out my big bets.

Commanders @ Lions (-8.5)

It only took one drive for Detroit to shake off the cobwebs and get into a groove. Fantastic decision by Ben Johnson to utilize the no-huddle.

Kerby Joseph has been fantastic so far in both coverage and run support.

That being said, the Lions are now letting up big yardage in the run game. This triple option that Washington is running is frustrating them to no end - when Jayden has the option to hand off to the tailback, run the ball himself, or flip the ball over to a wide receiver running a screen, it's difficult for a defense as aggressive as the Lions to compose themselves and stay disciplined.

Aaron Glenn and his commitment to blitzing and overload pressures will be the death of him - Jayden Daniels has been eating him alive on these blitzes. Then again, maybe Glenn is "subtly" telling us that the Lions have no pass rushers worth a damn. Which is probably the truth - Za'Darius Smith and Levi haven't done much worth noting.

Another thing worth noting here - trick plays fell short on multiple occasions. A designed throw to Dan Skipper in the red zone had to be aborted as the Commanders stayed disciplined and bracketed him in double coverage. Likewise, a trick pass from Jameson Williams just didn't work as his target was covered tightly. Washington's discipline in this game was genuinely commendable.

Rams @ Eagles (-6.5)

It'll be interesting to see if Oren Burks can make up for Nakobe Dean's absence in the middle of the field.

Multiple times have failed runs killed Ram drives. Not being able to run the ball might well be their death sentence here. Maybe this is how cold weather effects things - it compels certain coaches to commit more snaps to the ground game, even if that ground game is pretty impotent.

And as it gets colder, it's getting evident the Rams are not comfortable. Slipping and sliding all over the place, failing to catch line drive throws, some throws are missing velocity, botched hand-offs....I know the Eagles aren't comfortable also, but I haven't seen the same type of unforced errors from their side. The snow and the freezing weather may be the crucial difference here in helping the Eagles advance to the conference championships. We'll see how the fourth quarter goes.

And the fourth quarter begins Jalen Carter knocking a slippery ball out of Kyren Williams hand. It's not good.

Once again, this cold weather is brutalizing the Rams. Cold snowy weather is not their friend. Even Puca Nacua is having a poor game by his usual standards. I need to start factoring rough weather into my analysis, as warm weather teams cannot deal well in such circumstances. Few coaches are better equipped at game preparation than Sean McVay and even this weather has him flustered. It didn't help that the weather notably worsened in the second half compared to the first half, where they managed some successful drives.

Thes Ram had their best drive in the second half very late when they ran the no-huddle. If only they invoked such an offense sooner...sometimes, I'm confused whether McVay is truly a blue-chip coordinator. His insistence on running the ball for sad yardage, his unwillingness to incorporate non-traditional ways of matriculating the ball...it's not a brand of football that can carry them through difficult moments. Their game management score makes a good deal more sense in this light.

Ravens @ Bills (+1.5)

Two early turnovers have been crucial for the Bills here. Those turnovers seem unforced, but Buffalo deserves some credit here for messing a little bit with Lamar's internal clock. Some smartly crafted blitzes on passing downs has limited his productivity. It's good to see them learn something from their last contest against Baltimore.

That being said, it's so disappointing to see the Bills unable to contain Lamar. His scrambling has been an absolute phenomenal given it seems like Buffalo had the pocket adequately contained. And Buffalo is supposed to be among the fastest defenses in the league given that they've consciously traded size for speed on defense.

Yet another turnover in the fourth quarter changed the momentum completely. Terrel Bernard punched the ball out of Mark Andrews' hands. It's interesting that it's the Ravens passing game that will probably end up losing the game for them. On their single best drive in the game, almost every single play ended up being a zone run or trap run. Why are they really trying to establish the passing game without their number one weapon?

LESSONS

Never mind, rookie quarterbacks can do just all right in the postseason after all.

These Washington Commanders need to be studied. I had them losing in a somewhat close affair in the wild card round. While one upset wasn't such a ridiculous notion, two straight upsets in a row is pretty crazy. I need to assess how the Commanders were able to stun so many people.