Let's do this. I'm excited. My model enters another iteration this year and I think it'll be one of the final iterations when all is said and done. A couple more refinements are needed, particular when it comes to assessing the actual value of elements like tactical edges and game management. But I think it's almost ready to go and I hope it'll have a fantastic postseason!

Chargers @ Texans (+3)

This is a game that the model suspects will be painfully close. I'm in agreement here, even if I'm unsure of whether Danielle Hunter actually deserves to be called an elite pass rusher.

So far, the model is correct. This is a low-scoring defensive game defined by some broken plays and silly turnovers. Will Anderson Jr. , Denico Autry, and Danielle Hunter have all disrupted Justin Herbert on multiple occasions. Likewise on the other side, a number of defenders have harassed on C.J. Stroud thanks in large part to the shoddy Texans offensive line failing to hold up in pass protection. Teair Tart and Joey Bosa in particular are unusually productive. Then again, it doesn't help that Stroud has a habit of lounging in the pocket.

Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter have been impressive for the Texans defensive backfield. Likewise, Derwin James has been pretty damn good in his own right for the Chargers.

Stroud dropping the ball only to recover it deep in the offensive backfield and deliver a huge pass to a depth receiver sums up this game rather beautifully, doesn't it?

Joe Mixon's ability to generate yards even when the offensive line fails is pretty remarkable. I suppose there's good reason why Mixon was nominated to the Pro Bowl this year.

Steelers @ Ravens (-8.5)

Baltimore is committing hard to the running game here and Pittsburgh has failed to do much to stop them. T.J. Watt seems to have been coached to clamp down hard on Derrick Henry whenever Baltimore runs the read-option. Unfortunately, this takes T.J. Watt out of the equation completely as Lamar just ends up keeping the ball and running for some major yardage. Any linebacker or defensive back assigned to keep an eye on him just cannot get to him in time before he revs up and takes off.

Where is Pittsburgh's defensive line? Alex Highsmith and Cameron Heyward haven't really been seen much in the first half. And T.J. Watt hasn't done much, especially as he's effectively lost on read-option plays.

Lamar's prone to throw the ball short whenever opposing defenses blitz him. Pittsburgh knows this and has preyed upon this tendency on a few plays to keep Baltimore off schedule. It doesn't matter much anyway as the Ravens have been chewing off some big yards through the ground game.

Isiaiah Likely has had a few "big man" moments in the first half. I would have never thought he would have been the skill player to most benefit from Zay Flowers being out in this game.

Pittsburgh is leaning hard on misdirection to try and generate production offensively. It's not working - Baltimore has been really disciplined.

What happened to Pittsburgh towards the end of the season? Their losing mindset has not only extended into the postseason, but it's gotten worse. A part of me wonders if Pittsburgh is built to last a full football season. No team practices harder during training camp than the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's a philosophy that pays big dividends early in the season, but I wonder if it effectively exhausts them later in the season.

Then again, maybe tactical edges do not matter if you do not have any developed talent. Michael Lombardi would argue that strategic adjustments seem to matter little if the roster isn't good enough to adapt and execute upon those adjustments. And it can be credibly argued that the Steelers literally have no definitively elite talent in their ranks. That would mean T.J. Watt is not an elite pass rusher. And I'm not sure he is as he might be playing with injury. In fact, examining his raw numbers, I'm convinced something is off with him.

Watching the tape, the Steelers tried a "backfill" strategy to try and contain the Ravens and their read-option. A defensive lineman would chase after Henry, compelling Lamar to retain the ball and rush it himself. The goal here is that a linebacker would quickly fill into the hole left behind by that defensive lineman. Now Todd Monken would adjust by sending a blocker ahead of Lamar to take care of the backstop defender. So the Steelers adjusted by then sending a safety down to cover for the blocked linebacker. Except it didn't work. By the time the safety rolled down, Lamar has already accelerated. Of course, this all plays out only if Lamar keeps the ball. But if the defensive lineman ends up getting neutralized, then Henry can just take the ball and plow it forward.

Masks were rarely used. I could not remember a single time the Steelers sent a defensive back towards the quarterback or shifted coverage post-snap. It's worth noting the Ravens were making fun of the Steelers after the game for being way too predictable on offense.

Broncos @ Bills (-7.5)

My initial hunches were correct. Even though the Broncos were a well-developed team from a production standpoint, Bo Nix being a rookie quarterback held them back significantly. Young quarterbacks in general have issues decoding complex defenses and what happened today was no different.

I notice Denver is more than happy lobbing deep shots, mostly to Courtland Sutton. I suppose it makes sense. It's much easier heaving the ball deep than it is to read this complex Buffalo defense and try to thread the ball into open spaces between defenders. I respect the gutsiness. And I also respect the fake punt in the middle of the second quarter. Sean Payton is playing this game like a big underdog.

Packers @ Eagles (-5.5)

Pretty painful outing here considering that both teams are renowned as being among the better offenses of the league. Then again, Green Bay has really fallen off in weeks as of late. And Philadelphia has a quarterback returning from a concussion.

All of Green Bay's injuries may or may not cost them here. Losing Elgton Jenkins certainly hurts. But their three starting receivers? It's questionable whether any of them should be considered significant losses. If anything, Philly suffered the biggest loss in this game when they lost Nakobe Dean to a potentially season-ending knee injury.

Goedert coming through with two clutch catches here.

Slippery turf is something I will never comprehend. Especially given the way players continue to slip on them. Some of these players really hate longer cleats, don't they?

Actually, things evened out somewhat. Losing Josh Jacobs on that crucial drive in the fourth quarter really killed the Packers, as they failed to convert a first down from 3rd/4th and short.

Green Bay has been sensational defending against Saquon here. Outside of Pittsburgh (bizarrely enough), no team has limited Barkley more this season than Green Bay. It helped that Jalen Hurts only ran/scrambled only about half as much as usual. I need to watch the tape on this game in more detail to find out what Green Bay did correct. It could be something as simple as having the requisite talent to limit opposing rushers.

Watching the tape, Philadelphia's running game was stymied for multiple reasons. Sometimes, a lineman or tight end chose the wrong person to block. Sometimes, the Eagles would be running into a defense with more defenders in the box than blockers. The greatly reduced use of read-option plays helped simplify things for the Packers in that they only had to worry about one man and one man only in the ground game.

But the biggest reason to me is that the Packers defensive line and linebackers simply beat their blockers. And it's consistent with the fact that the Packers pass rushers and blitzers were winning most of their battles, regardless of whether the Eagles were running or passing. I'm not sure if that first game in the season gave the Packers an edge here or if Green Bay simply prepared for this game a couple weeks in advance. It's also possible Philadelphia came into this game not giving much of a damn given the Packers recent struggles.

Commanders @ Buccaneers (-3)

I love being on point with my analysis. And my assessment of both teams has been spectacularly accurate so far.

Lots of quick passes and easy throws for Jayden Daniels in their second drive. Interesting strategy given rookie quarterbacks are more likely to struggle against complex defenses. Maybe Kliff also recognizes this and adjusted appropriately? Now let's see if Tampa Bay adjusts in response.

No need to adjust as it seems Jayden Daniels is finally comfortable operating in the pocket against this defense. He's set to clear the passing yardage oddsmakers have set out for him through three quarters alone.

Washington has adjusted defensively in the second half by taking Marshon Lattimore away from Mike Evans and instead opting to bracket him in coverage.

Vikings vs. Rams (+3)

Surprisingly, I was very wrong here. I thought the Vikings were a legitimate dark horse contender. Never mind.

Yet another game where tactical edges do not matter much. The Rams are eating Sam Darnold alive. Chris Shula is coaching a master class of a game here, having his defense play in a way they're not necessarily accustomed to. Was I wrong about tactical edges here? Or do tactical edges matter only in certain circumstances? Maybe tactical edges only come into play when both teams are closely matched with one another? It's going to be an interesting experiment going forward.

I'm reminded of the time the Cardinals played the Vikings. Despite their utter lack of talent, Arizona's defense was giving Sam Darnold hell with delayed blitzes and carefully designed pass rushes.

I think I missed the boat on giving Tyler Higbee consideration as a potentially elite vector. He returned from injury late in the season and his arrow was trending up. On the first drive, he was responsible for a beautiful deep catch that would set the Rams up for a touchdown. But it doesn't matter much now, as he's coughing up blood from a chest injury at the hospital.

One statement to mark on for these Rams - few teams know better how to handle the blitz than Sean McVay. His hot read and screen concepts are some of the best in the league, especially when he has an elite quarterback like Stafford executing them.

It took until the second quarter, but the Vikings finally switched from zone coverage to man coverage and it's a shift that's paying dividends. Why didn't Minnesota open with this? I don't understand. Either way, tactical edges need to be redefined here as the clubs that should be enjoying them in the first place aren't showing it. Whatever initial coverage plan Brian Flores had here had to be scrapped. I'm guessing his thought process was something like bracket Puca Nacua in zone coverage and force Stafford to proceed to Option B and C. Which would work on a non-elite quarterback.

On the other side, Chris Shula has been amazing. It's almost like the Rams have these Vikings read like a book. I wonder if Kevin O'Connell working with Sean McVay in years past is coming back to bite him hard in the ass here. Take a 2nd and 3 here. The Vikings decide that it's a perfect opportunity to throw a deep pass off play action. Except the Rams didn't care about the run fake one bit. They blitzed a slot cornerback and completely caught Darnold by surprise. A couple other examples are there of the Vikings trying to utilize misdirection only to fail as the Rams didn't chase the bait.

A second well-timed slot blitz killed the Vikings on what would be the pivotal drive of the game, as Darnold fumbled the ball.

An important contrast needs to be drawn here - whereas Stafford can cycle through reads, it seems like Darnold cannot. I think he precommits to his initial read, maybe as more of an effort to try and operate within the structure of the offense. Or maybe as a way to simplify the information he needs to process as he negotiates through pressure. Even then, he's a bit slow at pulling the trigger, something Troy Aikman noted multiple times during the live broadcast. Darnold's internal clock needs to be reset.

EXPLORE THE FOLLOWING

Perhaps it should be notated within the grading rubric whether the team is starting a rookie quarterback. If so, penalize them significantly as rookie quarterbacks have significant issues negotiating through complex defenses.

Why did the Steelers collapse so badly despite having faced the Ravens just a few weeks ago? Is this a Steelers-specific thing? After the game, a couple of the Ravens players were laughing at the Steelers for the way their defense couldn't mask intent or employ tricks effectively. If that's the case, then Tomlin's entire defensive philosophy is built around sheer simplicity and succeeding solely by talent....which just doesn't work when you're missing talent. I need to look more into this.

Tactical edges did not matter one bit for the Vikings against the Rams. Los Angeles destroyed poor Sam Darnold in the first half. This whole concept of "tactical edges" needs to be revisited.

One thing here worth noting - the smarter football minds favored the Rams and the Commanders. They were right to do so.