Bengals @ Ravens (-6.5)

The jury remains out on whether this Bengal defense has truly improved. Signs are positive so far. I'm seeing a bit more of a pass rush from the likes of Joseph Ossai and B.J. Hill. Nothing that really impresses me though. And Cam Taylor-Britt is still a disgusting liability in coverage, letting up two touchdowns.

Finally, I'm seeing Mdakubike make some impact plays.

Not having Kyle Hamilton hurts this Ravens defense. Chase just scored on a 67 yard catch-and-run.

If you're willing to go for fourth-down, why not just run on 3rd and 2? Or at least bust out your best plays on fourth down instead of lobbing the ball deep? Twice, the Bengals attempted to throw deep on fourth down and twice have they failed.

Panthers @ Giants (-6.5)

Half of the Panthers' yards and points came in the first quarter. The rest of the way, they were kept to roughly to 50 yards a quarter. How are the Giants of all team complacent?

Vikings @ Jaguars (+6.5)

It's clear the Jaguars are making a much greater effort to run the ball now that Trevor Lawrence is no longer under center. I should have factored this in my handicapping.

Sam Darnold has thrown three interceptions, all on balls targeted towards Justin Jefferson. Do the Vikings have nobody else capable of stepping up now that Justin Jefferson has been essentially taken out of the game?

Then again, I think the Jaguars defense might be playing its best game of the season. The way the cornerbacks are staying disciplined and keeping glued to their receivers is remarkable. Either that or Jacksonville is making a concerted effort not to allow anything deep, forcing Darnold to march the ball down the field piecemeal.

Late into the fourth quarter, the Vikings have run 36 plays in Jaguars territory while the Jaguars have run 34 plays total. That says it all, doesn't it? It seems to me the Vikings were caught sleeping in enemy territory.

Aaron Jones leaving the game in the third quarter hurts. Akers isn't the same caliber runner.

Mac Jones is truly terrible. Then again, this Jacksonville offense isn't doing him many favors.

I wonder if the humidity is affecting things here. Might make Sam Darnold a little less likely to scan the field for open receivers and instead force balls over to Justin Jefferson.

Falcons @ Saints (+3.5)

Kirk Cousins isn't quite crisp in the opening quarter. His timing was off on two critical third-down throws.

Finally, Kirk's timing in the second quarter has been on point. I can't lie - some of the touch on his passes has been pretty exquisite.

The Saints seem to be preying on Atlanta's tendency to blitz on long downs through smart use of screen plays.

Without question, Cousins favors Darnell Mooney more than anybody else in the passing game.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has emerged to become the primary receiver for the Saints. He's done fantastic work on New Orleans' two touchdown drives.

Always baffles me why more teams don't try to pass from the 1 or 2-yard line on early downs. Defenses are almost always inclined to attack the offensive backfield in order to stuff a run. Take advantage of that tendency to connect with a receiver on a quick pattern.

It was a comedy of errors for Atlanta in the third quarter. An unnecessary low block outside the tackle box drew an expensive flag that drew the Falcons out of the red zone. They fought their way back only for Kirk Cousins to be sloppy with his footwork, resulting in a third-down pass that never made its way to its intended receiver.

Bills @ Colts (+3.5)

I think the Bills might have an elite pass rusher in Greg Rousseau. Now if Daquon Jones can finally step up and regain elite form, the Bills are a scary championship contender.

49ers @ Buccaneers (+6.5)

Buccaneers seem to be having trouble moving the ball against the 49ers, but they do have a strong ground game as well as some clever scheming on offense keeping them in this contest.

Bucky Irving is a star in the backfield. It's rare to see somebody outplay and and juke the likes of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.

Two missed field goals and a shanked punt leads to an opportunity cost of 13 points for these 49ers. Their special teams is questionable, especially in games where they're supposed to be major favorites. Then again, this might just be an off game for Jake Moody as he returns from an injury that kept him sidelined for several weeks. Either way, I feel the correct play here was to not gamble on this match. A few movements of the football here or there was all that was needed to determine who would cover the spread in this affair.

Broncos @ Chiefs (-7.5)

How did the Broncos play so poorly last week only to play so beautifully this week and beat the undefeated Chiefs?

Titans @ Chargers (-7.5)

Complacency is real - not having any safety help on Ridley on what ended up being a touchdown is malpractice. Thankfully, it didn't take long for the Chargers to wake up.

Bud Dupree has been having a bit of a resurgence as a pass rusher for the Chargers.

LeRoy Watson is such a liability at right tackle for the Titans. Singlehandedly cost them three points on a good drive.

Let's be honest - Jeffery Simmons might be the only potentially elite defensive lineman on the team.

This Charger defense is greater than the sum of its parts. No one person really stands out on this defense, but all of them seem to have impacted the game in one way or another.

Justin Herbert running the ball might be the third vector this offense desperately needs.

That being said, the Chargers didn't actually impress me on this game. Will Levis and the Titans were able to move the ball on them every now and then. But the Chargers were able to wreak enough havoc against this offensive line to not only win the game, but cover the spread.

Patriots @ Bears (-6.5)

Once again, bad teams do not deserve to be big favorites and this illustrates why.

Losing not one, but both tackles to injury was the death knell for these Bears. Chicago had a hard enough time fielding a middling offensive line with their starters, but to be reduced to second-stringers at their two most valuable positions on their offensive line? It would doom them.

A jarring contrast between these two organizations - the Patriots seem much more prepared and sophisticated on offense. Rarely do I see them commit unforced errors or mismanage things before the snap. That's not the case with these Bears. Pre-snap penalties, mismanagement of the play clock, even a lack of coordination on the snap count...these Bears are dysfunctional on offense.

On top of that, why does Caleb Williams insist on holding on to the ball and throwing deep even though his offensive line is in absolute shambles and he's wildly inaccurate?

Few things signify Chicago's passing ineptitude better than the differential between Caleb's intended air yards and his completed air yards. Caleb on average attempts to throw the ball 8.3 yards down the field, but only tends to complete passes that travel an average of 4.7 yards down the field. It's a piss-poor differential of 3.6, second worst in the league only behind the benched Anthony Richardson.

Seeing Caleb still be wildly off on some basic throws is concerning. It's even more worrying when he's not under any obvious pressure. I'm not seeing any real significant progress. No one receiver really stands out on tape either.

For the Patriots, Drake Maye looks to be developing a connection with Kayshon Boutte and Demario Douglas. I'll need to see more on tape.

Kudos to Alex Van Pelt on some of these play calls I'm seeing from him. Drake Maye was supposed to be a project, but to see him executing on some of these sophisticated play concepts is encouraging.

Eagles @ Cowboys (+7.5)

Why is Zimmer playing single high safety against Jalen Hurts? Don't do that. It caters to his affinity for throwing the ball to the sidelines.

I expected better from McCarthy and Cooper Rush coming out of the gate. One quarter in and Rush has only posted something like 12 yards along with an embarrassing fumble. McCarthy is straight trash. Either that or Cooper Rush has a severe case of linguine legs.

Zack Baun has looked pretty impressive as an inside linebacker for these Eagles. As has Overshown for the Cowboys.

It does seem like Philadelphia read the Cowboys before the game even started. Mike McCarthy admitted his plan was to keep the offense going down on the field on long, sustained drives predicated on short passes and runs. The Eagles knew that and played things short. Dallas could never adjust.

I think I'm ready to call Vic Fangio a blue-chip defensive mind.

Let me tell you, the Eagles have some fantastic players in their defensive backfield. Zack Baun, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, and Reed Blankenship...all potentially elite coverage players.

Lions @ Texans (+3.5)

Texans are fighting hard. And their revamped offensive line has made strides forward, though it probably helps to play at home.

Jalen Pitre has been sensational so far as a strong safety.

The Texans have clearly studied up on all the different tricks the Lions like to put into practice. Once again, DeMeco Ryans has been given blue-chip designation for good reason.

Fotukasi being out for the Texans in the second half has cost them a bit in terms of run defense. The Lions have been given renewed life after seeing their ground game was able to generate some serious yardage.

But the real story here is the way the Texans were shut down in the second half. I think the Lions woke back up after taking a shellacking in the first half. The reality is they have no teeth in the passing game so long as Nico Collins remains off the field.

Penai Sewell is a key player on Detroit's offense. Losing him would be a vicious blow to the team.

Dolphins @ Rams (-1.5)

Chop Robinson is starting to generate some return on investment. With him, Zach Sieler, and Calais Campbell, Miami might have a great defensive line.

Jared Verse has become the best defensive trench player for the Rams.

Zach Sieler has returned to all-pro form.

Los Angeles seemed unprepared for Miami's defense, especially the offensive line. The offensive line wasn't ready for all the stunts that defensive tackles Zach Sieler and Calaid Campbell would run on them. On top of that, Matthew Stafford actively throwing to Puka Nacua when he's being covered by Jalen Ramsey seemed like a questionable decision, especially when a throw underneath was readily available for him.

I think my initial assessment of this game was spot on - too many factors worked together to lull the Rams into complacency.

Now I'm seeing the Rams offensive linemen blowing assignments.

Lessons

Post-snap penalties from the defense can actually be a good indicator of a team's physicality. Just look at Detroit.

New rule - Never bet on bad teams as big favorites, period. Always opt for the underdog, no matter how putrid. Chicago and New York proved that today.

Being humiliated the week before may serve as extra motivation the week after.