Ravens @ Steelers (+3)

Two playoff teams here duking it out. Love it.

Nick Herbig having a great fourth quarter.

Browns @ Saints (+1)

Something worth noting here - Joe Woods is the defensive coordinator for the Saints. As a former defensive coordinator under Kevin Stefansky, the man should understand the Browns tendencies on offense better than most. It would explain why I see Jameis hold the ball as long as he did on that one crucial third down.

Derek Carr has looked fantastic in the first half against this Cleveland defense.

Never forget that Cleveland's defense will almost always underwhelm on the road.

Dustin Hopkins has cost this Browns team 7 points with his missed kicks. Sickening.

Taysom Hill has had a season-best game tonight against this Cleveland road defense.

Jaguars @ Lions (-13.5)

You have to admire the Lions. They have every reason to underperform and yet they don't. The cover was in hand by the time the first quarter ended. Then again, the coaching discrepancy alone would be enough to cover this spread assuming no complacency.

The Lions have posted up 600 yards of offense by the time the fourth quarter began. Think about that.

Packers @ Bears (+5.5)

Caleb Williams rushing the ball has been a game-changer. Thomas Brown becoming the new playcaller has really changed things for the better so far.

Never underestimate the motivating effects of humilation. The Bears have been wonderful so far in pass protection, a far cry from last week. It probably helps having both tackles back.

The Bears had every reason to overperform this year - major changes on the coaching staff, a humiliating loss last week, a big spread, a sustained losing streak. My confidence in the Packers was predicated on the fact that LaFleur and Jordan Love knows how to dissect this Eberflus defense. And they've been doing that with some success, but poor decision-making and arrogance seems to be their undoing here.

Raiders @ Dolphins (-7.5)

Dolphins are making some serious hay on offense using DeVon Achane in the ground game and Tyreek Hill on critical passing plays to keep drives alive.

Raiders are productive on offense early largely through running/short-yardage plays outside the C-gap. Later in the game, the Raiders seem to be relying mostly on passes towards the middle of the flat to matriculate the ball downfield.

It amazes me how so much of the failed misdirection plays I see happen because not everybody on offense has bought into making the misdirection look plausible. Offensive line should be selling out a bit more, tailbacks and quarterbacks should be working together more closely to make fake handoffs look real, fake jet sweep handoffs need to look like the ball is actually being handed off...

Las Vegas might have the worst set of linebackers in the league.

Then again, maybe the humidity is just wearing down these Raiders. Las Vegas isn't used to humidity at all given the dry air around Las Vegas. An uncomfortably humid day would be enough to leave them fatigued and uncoordinated by the fourth quarter.

Quinton Bell is having a fantastic game for the Dolphins. Then again, the right tackle for the Raiders is such a liability. His name is DJ Glaze.

Brock Bowers will now be the focal point of this offense under Scott Turner. That much is evident. What worries me is that the Raiders were all too quick to abandon the running game. I know they were behind for much of the day, but the run/pass ratio was something like 1 to 5, which is untenable unless you have a varied passing attack with a capable quarterback at the helm. Looking at their rushing success rate, it stands at a low 20%. Just pathetic.

It's worth noting that teams tend to play Miami more honestly with Tua under center than any other quarterback. That's because to Tua's credit, he can throw the ball around the field. Putting too many people in the box may be a dangerous proposition considering all Tyreek Hill really needs is a head-start and a lane on any one play in order to post up points for the Dolphins.

Falcons @ Broncos (-1.5)

Denver's defensive line confuses me. Their numbers are solid, but it's the eye test they fail, especially at critical moments. Atlanta went for a fourth down from their own side of the field and Kirk Cousins had all the time in the world to wait for one of his receivers to eventually wiggle free from coverage.

I do love it when my handicap is spot on. And Atlanta being so wounded in their defensive backfield was all I needed to know that Bo Nix would have a banner day passing against them.

Chiefs @ Bills (-1.5)

One thing to look out for is whether the Bills try incorporating more six-man lines against the Chiefs, similar to what they tried last year in the playoffs.

Seahawks @ 49ers (+6.5)

Kudos to the Seahawks for covering, but this isn't a performance to be proud of. Too often I saw Geno Smith playing desperate trying to stitch together enough plays to sustain a drive. This team isn't running the ball as often as it should be.

Then again, looking at the gamebook, you can see their core ground game isn't as productive as one would expect from somebody like Kenneth Walker. In fact, Seattle's one of the worst teams when it comes to rushing by my grading metrics. Is this a failure of coaching?

Jauan Jennings and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are gamers for the 49ers and the Seahawks, respectively. Both of them can be safely considered vectors for their respective teams.

Charles Cross is a bit of a liability for the Seahawks at left tackle.

Without Nick Bosa, the 49ers lack teeth on their defensive front. That and the defense's inability to contain Geno Smith in the pocket cost them dearly. The talent and coaching share the blame here for letting Seattle march down the field to effectively close out the game with a go-ahead touchdown.

49ers don't blitz often. Unfortunately, that puts way too much pressure on the front four considering the burden of rushing the passer rests almost entirely on their shoulders.

Looking at their blitz rates throughout the season, it seems like the 49ers are only willing to blitz hard against quarterbacks they don't respect (namely Jacoby Brissett and Kyler Murray). I'm guessing San Francisco believes these quarterbacks can be easily rattled when five or more defenders are trying to suffocate them in the pocket.

Bengals @ Chargers (-1.0)

The Chargers might have a few burgeoning stars on their defensive roster. Namely linebacker Daiyan Henley and defensive tackle Tuli Tuipulotu. Out of the two of them, a better case can be made for Tuipulotu being recognized as elite.

The Chargers were bracketing Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase in coverage. Cincinnati seemed to have adjusted in the second half with their route running. Either that or the Chargers just became complacent in the second half.

Burrow's ability to manage pressure is truly remarkable.

The Bengals are truly depleted emotionally. This loss was killer.

Rams @ Patriots (+5.0)

Going back to their Super Bowl year, it seems McVay's system loves to leverage the services of its best receiver to produce yardage. Even when that receiver isn't directly generating yards, his presence on the field is still the catalyst for quite a few other passing plays.

The Patriots are truly sloppy when it comes to defense. Their coverage schemes are either pathetically executed or shoddy in nature. Furthermore, their rushing defense is consistently poor, largely because the two main defensive tackles anchoring that line can be easily pushed around. It was all too easy for Stafford and company to move up and down the field. Demerit to Jerod Mayo and his defensive coaching staff.

On the other hand, their offense continues to show significant signs of improvement under Alex Van Pelt. Drake Maye is looking more and more like a professional quarterback, so much so that I'd rank him better than a dozen or so other quarterbacks starting in the league today. Kudos to Van Pelt for the work he's done polishing what was supposed to be an incredibly rough diamond that was supposed to take years to cut and grind.

LESSONS

On short spreads, if one team is significantly "tougher" and better organized compared to the other, take that team.

Factor humidity for Florida teams at this point in the season.