Steelers @ Browns (+3.5)

Jameis Winston was horrendous early in cold weather, but he seems to have adjusted.

Cleveland is having serious trouble keeping Pittsburgh from matriculating the ball downfield.

Nick Herbig has been making plays these past few weeks, most notably a key play in the fourth quarter forcing the fumble.

Calvin Austin has stood out tonight with his seam routes against Cleveland's two-safety looks.

Buccaneers @ Giants (+5.5)

I love being right. New quarterbacks that start NFL games after some time off always tend to play poorly. Today is even more proof of that.

Patriots @ Dolphins (-7.5)

Patriots defense may well be the worst in the league. Which is saying something given some of the other lousy defenses in the league today.

Three false starts from their tackles in their first six offensive plays. Sloppy work from the Patriots.

Seeing Christian Gonzelez tail Odell Beckham in man coverage is wild. What kind of inept coaching is this?

Bad offensive lines do not travel well. The Patriots are a perfect example of that type of ineptitude.

Let it be known - Tua playing instead of Tyler Huntley negated the natural advantage the Patriots would carry from losing to these same Dolphins just several weeks earlier. Any adjustments the defense makes would be rendered irrelevant. On the other hand, the switch from Jacoby Brissett to Drake Maye didn't give New England that same advantage on offense, in part given the woeful nature of their offensive line.

Cowboys @ Commanders (-10.5)

The Cowboys have been shut out in the first half, but the Commanders haven't been able to get going themselves in the first half either. Their offense seems broken, perhaps because Jayden Daniels is still hurt and can no longer run the ball with the same gusto as before.

Jayden actually has less passing yards than Cooper Rush in the first half. Woof.

Kliff Kingsbury smartly changes things up in the second half by having Washington run the ball so much more on their first drive. It pays off handsomely, as few teams are worse against the run than these sad Cowboys.

I overestimated the Commander offense. Seriously overestimated the Commander offense.

Sam Cosmi is a massive liability along that offensive front of Washington.

This Commanders offense is not all that elaborate. So many screens and short passes that the Cowboys seem ready to stop. The deep sideline passes aren't working either for reasons not well known. I wonder if Jayden's health is affecting the crispness of his passing.

Washington doesn't have much in terms of pass rush. When Dorance Armstrong is yourr team's primary pass rusher, something is deeply wrong. Making matters worse, C-gap seem to work quite well against them.

Washington might have some of the worst corners in the league. Benjamin St. Juste and Noah Icantrememberhisname have been bleeding yardage to opposing offenses.

I can't stress this enough - these zone runs away from Micah Parsons are simply not working. Washington's guards cannot gain any ground against the Cowboys defensive tackles, meaning tailbacks are almost always going to be forced to cut back towards Micah Parsons anyway.

Stick routes to Noah Brown seem to be a staple in this Washington offense.

I'm noticing Jayden isn't really reading the field much in this game. Is he a one-read-and-go type of quarterback? If he's actually failing to cycle through multiple reads on the field, it would explain why Washington's offense has gotten so stagnant heading into the second half of the season.

Washington loves leveraging dime personnel on third downs.

Frankie Luvu is just special.

Kudos to Mike McCarthy for the way some of these misdirection plays have been drawn up. A bootleg pass to a receiver lined up in the backfield in the wing position was a stroke of genius.

I think Tyler Guyton is a point of weakness on this Cowboy offensive line. On the flip side, I think Eric Kendricks may be a point of strength for the defense, especially given his familiarity with the Zimmer style of defense.

Washington really doesn't have a running game without Brian Robinson and a fully healthy Jayden.

Lions @ Colts (+7.5)

Despite how predictable the Colts have been allegedly on defense, they haven't let up that many points so far. These Colts have some serious hustle, at least along their defensive front.

Chiefs @ Panthers (+10.5)

These Panthers have been playing sensationally this game. Even if the Chiefs cover, I think I'm lucky to make this cover. Carolina has surpassed expectations on both sides of the ball. In fact, Kansas was the major beneficiary of some penalty luck on one drive that ended in a touchdown. Two big penalties helped to keep the drive going, although neither one of them were critical third down plays.

I think Dave Canales and Bryce Young deserve some real credit here for stepping up and playing much better than expected coming out of the bye.

In the battle of Jawaan Taylor and Jadaveon Clowney, Clowney has won. In fact, I suspect Carolina knew Taylor would be the weak link on the line and preyed upon that, particularly in the second half. DJ Wonnum has flashed on tape as well.

I underestimated the Panther offense. Seriously underestimated the Panther offense. Either that or I seriously failed at assessing Kansas City's drive this week to play beyond expectations.

Watching the tape, Carolina made some serious hay on offense through outbreaking routes towards the sidelines. It sort of lines up with the tape from their last game. And these routes tend to work well against man coverage so long as the receiver gains leverage. More importantly, it shows that Carolina's coaches is actively scheming against teams that blitz heavily. Even better, Bryce Young is actually executing on the strategy Dave Canales and his offensive staff are trying to install here. I think it's time to upgrade Carolina from a bottom-feeder to a team trending towards the middle.

Broncos @ Raiders (+6.0)

Maxx Crosby (with some help from Tyree Wilson) singlehandedly killed a drive. Impressive.

I'm shocked to see Patrick Graham bring some heavy blitzes against Bo Nix even though they're down two starters in the defensive backfield. That being said, it's not the worst strategy - Nix being forced out of the pocket hasn't done this Denver offense too many favors.

On blitzes, Nix absolutely loves throwing the ball to Sutton. On first reads, Vele seems to be finding himself open against this undermanned Raider secondary.

Broncos love to incorporate quite a few receiver screens in their base offense, don't they? Then again, maybe this is Denver's main adjustment in the second half? I suspect the Raiders are stationing defensive backs deeper than normal given their injury situation. If so, it makes sense why Payton is calling so many short throws and screens in the second half. It's working out too - Denver was finally able to score touchdowns in the second half.

Just a heads up...the Raiders would have covered this if they were healthier. But losing two of their starting cornerbacks and then losing Minshew's services in the fourth quarter really doomed them. But to think...Desmond Ridder was literally one yard away from covering this spread. Crazy.

Cardinals @ Seahawks (+1.0)

Pretty clear Seattle put in some practice this week on keeping Kyler contained.

Leonard Williams has seen a bit of a resurgence under Mike Macdonald.

Ravens @ Chargers (+3.0)

Surprisingly, it was not all the zone coverage schemes that the Chargers utilize that doomed them tonight - it was the generally smaller nature of their defense. Few teams run more dime and three-safety personnel more than the Chargers. It makes them stronger against the passing game, but their rushing defense can be exposed by a team that knows how to run the ball.

Eagles @ Rams (+2.5)

Rob Havenstein being out the past couple weeks may be a bigger deal than I initially thought. Brandon Graham has been feasting all game. Unless Graham is having another breakout year this late in his career, it's suspicious.

Interestingly enough, forcing Matthew Stafford to hold the ball longer while his right tackle struggles may be the formula here to the Eagles winning the game.

Actually, the entire offensive line has been struggling to maintain integrity against the Eagles front. While Jalen Carter has been successfully negated by double-teams, that has opened up opportunities for Milton Williams, the other defensive tackle that usually lines up alongside him. And then you have the edges succeeding individually against the tackles, usually by lining up wide and forcing these Ram tackles to move laterally in order to hold up in protection. That's hard to do when you're operating from a silent count.

Titans @ Texans (-8.5)

The Titans have a solid pair of vectors in Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley. Maybe add Will Levis' mobility to that and Tennessee would have something resembling a complete offense.

On top of that, the Titans have a promising set of linebackers in Kenneth Murray and Jerome Baker. Kenneth Murray in particular is a serious gamer.

For the Texans, seeing Joe Mixon struggle to generate yardage here has me convinced their only vector on offense is sadly Nico Collins. Take Nico out and you have a team bereft of weaponry.

Tennessee really does have one of the better-coached defenses in the league. I feel like the coach deserves consideration for blue-chip status.

JC Latham is a pretty bad left tackle. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have scored sacks going through him.

Then again, Houston's offensive line is arguably worse, especially towards the end of the game where they let up two critical sacks to essentially help the Titans seal the game away.

LESSONS

Let it be known that snow doesn't really effect productivity on the football field. Both the Cleveland offense and the Pittsburgh offense were outstanding in the second half even with lake-effect snow showering the field to the point where the numbers have been whited out. It seems like to me you need more than just constant snow to really suffocate offenses - you probably also need either heavy winds or really cold temperatures.

Try not to trust questionable offenses as big favorites.

The Eagles, Lions, Packers, Bears, Steelers, and Cowboys have fanbases that travel well. DIsappointed that the Giants are not on this list. Patriots remain a question mark given their current status as bottom-feeders.

I'm thinking that underdogs returning from byes should be recognized as a motivational factor. After all, that's one additional week spent studying your next opponent while correcting some of your operational deficiencies at the same time. It might also be worth taking into account a team's record as well when determining complacency.

Another thing worth noting that might contribute to complacency - inter-conference match-ups. Wins and losses in inter-conference games matter the least when determining playoff seeding. On top of that, neither of the teams are all too familiar with one another given they only contest one another once every four years (outside of past Super Bowl matches).

Division games don't impact complacency. But division rematches might be the exception. Then again, didn't Miami blow out New England today?