Bears @ Lions (+9.5)

The Lions literally did nothing but run the ball on one touchdown drive in the second half. Very impressive, although they were the beneficiary of one penalty generously called in their favor. Then again, that's to be expected playing at home in favorable conditions.

If Caleb's first read isn't there, the man panicks. A bit of a tool to be frank. This offensive line isn't helping things.

I think Alim McNeill is making a case for himself an elite player.

I wonder if Caleb is fundamentally broken. His first half stats are abysmal for a team that's supposed to be coming out strong against a supposedly complacent team. It's not until the second half that the man finally wakes up and looks somewhat competent, though his accuracy can still be incredibly shaky.

Eberflus' end-game management was ass-terrible, to say the least. And I'm not sure he fully owns up to it either. Give the Bears organizational management green-chip status for this.

Dolphins @ Packers (-3.5)

The Dolphins should be ashamed of this sad performance tonight. I expected more given their overall talent. But they were out-coached and physically outplayed. It wasn't pretty.

Miami's offensive line has serious issues - they can't play with any power. When you get called for holding on an inside run that only ends up gaining one yard, something is off here. But the silver lining here is that they did hold up a bit in pass protection.

Tua's initial reads were just not open enough for his liking. I wonder if Robert Saleh advising them provided the Packers with enough intel about Miami's tendencies on offense. Whatever it was, Green Bay successfully stripped Miami of their easy throws and forced Tua to hold the ball longer than necessary.

It was a bit weird to see Miami try to run the ball as much they did in the first half, but it does make sense if one accepts that Tua was uncomfortable throwing the ball around in cold weather and needed time to "warm up". Tua's accuracy simply wasn't there for much of the game.

After the game, multiple players on both teams have come out stating that the Dolphins had a hard time coping with the cold weather. This Miami team is soft.

On top of that, Green Bay's field makes tackling tough in general. Their field is far more slippery than others.

Raiders @ Chiefs (-12.5)

The Chiefs tackles have once again re-emerged as problems for this overall offense, be it penalties or failing to hold up consistently in pass protection.

Travis Kelce is a vector. Nobody else seems to be stepping up as a complimentary weapon on this Chiefs offense yet. That'll likely change as Isaiah Pacheco gets healthier, Xavier Worthy continues developing, and DeAndre Hopkins continues familiarizing himself with the nuances of the offense. Furthermore, a case can be made that Noah Gray can round into vector form by the time the postseason begins. It's clear Gray gives Mahomes that younger more athletic presence at tight end that Travis Kelce can no longer provide.

So far, I've only seen Chris Jones and George Karlaftis disrupt the Raiders twice and once each respectively in the first half.

Give my boy Aidan O'Connell credit, the man has some balls on him, throwing into tight coverage as much as he has tonight. But his throws have been mostly successful.

Give credit to Patrick Graham here - his blitz timing has been fantastic. Against a quarterback like Mahomes, blitzing is a very risky proposition, but Patrick Graham is able to make it work.

Chargers @ Falcons (-1.5)

The Falcons were trying to be cute with a jet sweep on 3rd and 1. But the Chargers had men stacked on the line and quickly blew that up. Dumb call by their offensive coordinator.

In the first half alone, 8 of Justin Herbert's 11 completions were received by Ladd McConkey. Worrying.

Atlanta's decision-making is horrendous. Going for a deep ball on a 3rd and 5 only to return to a very predictable passing play on 4th down....I'm disgusted.

Then again, maybe Kirk Cousins is just atrocious against this Charger brand of zone defense, especially when playing for an organization as undisciplined as Atlanta. The only plays where he has been money has been out-breaking routes. Routes towards the middle have not led to lovely results for the Falcons. Then again, it's something the Falcons should have been made well aware given the way the Chargers like to play three safeties deep. But I suspect Atlanta's offensive coaching staff did very little preparation over the bye week.

Steelers @ Bengals (-2.5)

This Steelers coverage defense is truly awful. If it wasn't for the strength of their defensive front, teams would run up the score on them.

Darnell Washington might be critical to this Steelers offense given his run-blocking skills as a heavy tight-end.

Russell Wilson has been so underrated this year by league prognosticators. Dare I say he's been playing almost at an elite level.

Cardinals @ Vikings (-3.5)

I do suspect this Cardinals defense takes sleeping offenses by surprise. The intensity with which they fight is truly remarkable and the Vikings were likely caught by surprise.

Eagles @ Ravens (-3)

Let me tell you - these Ravens are a bit strange. Lamar's passes befuddle me sometimes. I think his quarterbacking prowess is more a product of his scrambling ability than accuracy.

Jalen Carter is an elite pass rushing talent. Likewise, Zack Baum and Cooper Dejean may need to be recognized as elite defensive coverage players.

Justin Tucker has been a disaster. He's singlehandedly cost this team 7 points.

Let there be no doubt that the Eagles are a championship-caliber team. I do need to see a bit more from them when it comes to end-game management, but it's possible they'll be my pick to at least represent the NFC in the playoffs.

I do think there's something to be said about Vic Fangio's ability to bring the best out of his interior defensive linemen. It's a gift that makes sense too, given his style of defense predominantly relies on the defensive tackles holding up much better than usual in run support. Mark this as a statement for Fangio.

Also do give credit to Fangio for the work he's done developing the two linebackers in Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean. Both players have done yeoman's work in anchoring the middle of the field while marshaling forth the rest of the defense.

Rams @ Saints (PK)

Brian Bresee is a name worth watching on this Saints defense. New Orleans seems well aware of his pass rushing potential given the way they use him on late-down stunts.

I enjoy seeing the Saints adjust quickly to the bootlegs that the Rams have been having so much success running in the second half.

Chase Young has found renewed life with the Saints.

Unless Saint receivers have been dropping the ball left and right, Derek Carr's stat line indicates that he played pretty poorly against a Ram team that knows how to rush the passer.

Buccaneers @ Panthers (+6)

Carolina needs to be recognized as a better team at this point. They're not great, but they've climbed out of the dregs and find themselves in the same league as other middling clubs. To see them moving the ball fairly well on offense while giving Tampa Bay hell on defense...it's honestly impressive and indicative that this organization made some serious strides forward over the past couple weeks. And let's not forget that outstanding performance against Kansas City last week.

49ers @ Bills (-6)

Buffalo's experience playing in snowy weather is paying off handsomely here. San Francisco looks way out of their element running around in the snow. But it stands to be seen whether they will course correct now that the first quarter is over.

It seems like Buffalo is going to cover here simply because they're so much more comfortable playing in the intense snow. Really makes me wonder how the Dolphins were able to play so well against them a couple years ago in similar weather. I don't know.

Shit, going back to that Dolphins game, it didn't start snowing until the fourth quarter. No wonder the Dolphins were able to keep pace and actually lead going into the fourth quarter.

Very disappointed that Kyle Shanahan didn't convince his team to wear bigger spikes for this game. Though it's harder to convince fully grown men to actively make decisions they may loathe. Not impossible though. But with his players moving out there much slower than usual, the Bills playing complacently doesn't matter one damn bit.

Browns @ Broncos (-6.5)

Watching Denver's coverage personnel stick to Cleveland's receivers has impressed me.

LESSONS

Always be wary of green chips going up against blue chips, especially if complacency has little impact on the game.

Start taking note of injuries/liabilities at the kicker position. They matter in these close games. Koo being healthy would have likely given Atlanta a close win over the Chargers. Tucker not being a train wreck likely would have made all the difference in the Ravens-Eagles match.

Complacency doesn't matter much if the underdog is playing in elements it cannot stand or is starting a quarterback who hasn't played any real football in more than a year. To generalize, it seems like any time a team may be playing under conditions detrimental to approximately half their roster, than it behooves me to no longer consider complacency as a factor that could determine the game's outcome.