Cowboys @ Panthers (-2.5)

This Marist Luifiu kid might be something special for the Cowboys as their new linebacker.

In fact, this Cowboys defense is actually emerging into something respectable. Kudos to Mike Zimmer for renewing life into a defensive line who couldn't do much initially without Micah Parsons. Osa Odigueza in particular has stood out in the pass rush.

I'm starting to thinking I may have overvalued the Panthers given that they've built a reputation for themselves playing against complacent opponents.

Commanders @ Saints (-7.5)

If Jayden Daniels isn't allowed to run free, this Washington offense loses several steps.

With Noah Brown out, it's become Terry McLaurin's game finally. That being said, Jayden still missed him on two critical throws in the fourth quarter that would have sealed this game away for the Commanders. Very disappointing.

Jayden has been sacked eight times today. Playing on the road against the Saints team is difficult unless you have a solid offensive line. The Commanders clearly do not have such a luxury. Especially when a holding call late in the fourth quarter cost them on a game-sealing pass.

Spencer Rattler playing in the second half has completely changed the tenor of this game. I wasn't expecting Rizzi to make that switch. Was the starter injured?

Chiefs @ Browns (-4.5)

I wonder if the Browns have lost a step on their rushing defense. Not that it matters much now.

Xavier Worthy still has yet to develop into a reliable weapon. His grasp on this offense and its timing isn't there. Credit the Chiefs though for trying their hardest to feature him into their game plan.

Bengals @ Titans (+5.5)

Will Levis is still just straight dooky. His throws are inaccurate, he's unable to throw away from coverage, and he's unable to read the defense consistently.

I'm still surprised the Bengals are playing this well. Cincinnati had multiple reasons to come out flaccid in this game. And they did play pretty poorly in the first 20 minutes or so. But now they're on the cusp of a blowout.

I suspect this is a defense that uses it complexity to prey on inexperienced/idiotic quarterbacks. I need to examine the Bengals defense against these quarterbacks going back the past couple seasons.

Dolphins @ Texans (-2.5)

I'm loving these Dolphins as potential dark horse contenders in the playoffs.

Never mind, they blew this game and choked away the season in uninspiring fashion yet again. There's something to be said about finishing this season tough.

Houston has some special team trick plays up its sleeves. That and a generous return from an interception gave Houston the points it needed to pull this win from the crevices of its ass.

Bills @ Lions (-2.5)

In one of the most surprising outcomes this game, the Bills are housing the Lions. How this is happening is still taking me a bit by surprise.

For one thing - I notice the Bills seem more than happy playing a sort of Tampa-3 coverage where three defensive backs drop deep and the linebackers station themselves further away from the line of scrimmage. It seems to be working, as Goff is unable to hit those crossing routes that the Lions have used to feast against so many other teams in the league.

Another surprising fact - the Bills defensive line is currently winning in the trenches against one of the best offensive lines in the league playing within the comfort of home field. Ed Oliver in particular has really stood out both against the pass and the run. Greg Rousseau pops up every now and then on tape as well.

Yet one more thing that may have played a big role here - the Lions are down some valuable pieces along that front seven. Most notably, their linebacking corps is incredibly thin. Any team that has to start David Long at linebacker should probably be seen as lacking in their second line of defense. And when you play more man coverage than the majority of teams in the NFL, linebackers are not a position that you can afford to miss here.

But it seems the biggest issue here was a simple one - the lack of talent along that defensive front. After Alim McNeill, nobody else presents themselves as a legitimate threat to blow up plays. The Bills demonstrated this in the first couple drives given how long Josh Allen was able to string out plays.

Packers @ Seahawks (+2.5)

These Seahawks love to run laterally, but lateral runs simply don't work all too well against Green Bay's younger, agile defense.

Green Bay's offensive line and Josh Jacobs are just beasts. Put Jacobs down as a certified vector on offense. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson also deserve consideration.

It's worth considering whether this Packers defense can be classified as a complex defense, especially given their blitzing habits. Often times, they'll drop linemen out into coverage, sending linebackers instead for the pass rush.

It's also dawning on me that this Seahawks pass protection units have major issues.

It's pretty clear Jordan Love seems to favor Christian Watson in the passing game. It might be enough to make him a definitive vector along with Tyler Kroft.

Buccaneers @ Chargers (-2.5)

Early on, it looks like it's safe to bet that Ladd McConkey is the best vector for the Chargers. Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer are under consideration, but neither look like they're on the same page as Justin Herbert nor do they produce consistently.

For the Buccaneers, the weaponry is more diverse. Not only do they have Mike Evans and potentially Jalen McMillan headlining their passing game, but they have a pretty stalwart ground game starring rookie Bucky Irving.

I don't know what it is, but the Chargers have developed some remarkable talent at defensive tackle from guys with no names.

Let's throw Lavonte David in there as an elite coverage player for this Tampa defense.

Poona Ford might be the closest thing the Chargers have to an elite defensive lineman.

LESSONS

Be wary of clubs coming off consecutive showings where they impress against complacent teams.

Do start noting which defenses tend to wreak havoc on inexperienced or moronic quarterbacks. The Bengals might be one such defense.

Darren Rizzi deserves some serious props for the way he's led this Saints team in the wake of Dennis Allen's firing. His special teams unit has been nothing but superb. On top of that, his willingness to bench underperforming players speaks volumes about his commitment to excellence.

When betting against rookie quarterbacks making their first ever start, do consider the possibility that these rookie quarterbacks may end up being benched later in the game.

It's hard to take season-wide statistics seriously when evaluating teams late in the season. Roster changes and even coaching adjustments can make those earlier statistics effectively pointless.