Broncos @ Chargers (-2.5)
The Broncos have established their running game early.
Both defensive lines have been getting blown out so far heading into the second quarter. But the Broncos line was finally able to hold up in the red zone on one drive, forcing a field goal from the Chargers.
I'm ready to assign Poona Ford as an elite defensive lineman.
Bo Nix has serious issues remaining composed against the blitz.
The Broncos certainly love their receiver screens, don't they?
This Strnad guy is a liability at linebacker for the Broncos.
But on a positive note, they may have two burgeoning stars in Zach Allen and Dondrea Tillman.
The lack of discipline from the Broncos front seven has really cost them a pretty penny's worth of penalties.
Justin Herbert is sensational. Bo Nix is all right.
For these Broncos, Courtland Sutton has emerged as a vector. Other receivers remains uncertain when it comes to reliability. Marvin Mims definitely deserves consieration though.
Texans @ Chiefs (-3.5)
The Texans were actually cooking on offense after Tank Dell finally recovered mentally from his debilitating leg injury from last year. That's no longer the case after Dell dislocated his knee cap on a fantastic touchdown catch. Without Dell in the mix, the Texans don't seem to have the requisite abundance of talent on offense to make up for their poor scheming and the lack of developing players. It's an underperforming offense going into the postseason with only one definitive vector in Nico Collins.
Defensively, the Texans were being chopped up by this Kansas City offense. The Chiefs consistently found outlets in the passing game. Runners found daylight against this defense on a number of occasions as well. Danielle Hunter stood out in the defensive line, but nobody else really caught my eye. Very surprising to say the least. But history has shown us that Andy Reid has had DeMeco Ryans' number before when the latter was defensive coordinator for the 49ers. Knowing that defensive players under Ryans sometimes play way too aggressively, Reid called plays designed to exploit that (sweeps, screens, other elaborate misdirection plays). It worked spectacularly.
Chris Jones and George Karloftis are elite pass rushers.
Hollywood Brown returning back may be the juice Kansas needs to go far into the postseason. Combined with DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy, Kansas finally has something of a professional receiving corps.
Vikings @ Seahawks (+3)
I'm shocked to see the Vikings struggle to get any consistent pressure here against the Seahawks. The only two players catching my eye are Harrison Bryant and Andrew Van Ginkel. Anytime Seattle's offense had to end a drive prematurely, I was more inclined to blame Geno Smith instead of the Vikings defense. If Smith had more trigger instinct, Seattle could be running up the score.
Finally, the Seahawks (well, more Geno Smith) adjust in the fourth quarter by throwing quickly to flat receivers knowing that Minnesota was playing defenders deeper than normal. Pretty clear Vikings were looking to limit Seattle's deep ball throws, especially those thrown to Donkey Kong Metcalf.
Seattle winning the middle 8 is why kept them in serious contention here, though it's still possible the Hawks would have covered given the flaccid way the Vikings played defense in this game.
Jihad Ward with some timely pressures to close out the game.
I'm not sure T.J Hockenson or Aaron Jones qualify as definitive vectors, let alone possible ones. Hockenson had some nasty drops that nearly cost the Vikings the game. On top of that, Aaron Jones with his EPA numbers and lack of pass-catching ability has to be called into question. Hell, watching the Seattle tape convinced me that Minnesota doesn't really enjoy plugging the ball down the field with Aaron Jones. Most of their drive success comes from passing. I need to conduct a bit more drive analysis.
If anything, Sam Darnold might be a vector given the success he's had scrambling with the ball.
Steelers @ Ravens (-6.5)
Both teams have done stellar work running the ball. Pittsburgh has performed well executing upon its scripted plays, whereas Baltimore has seen mostly mixed results.
Baltimore's passing game is interesting to me. I still can't put my finger on it, but it's not as crisp as it should be. Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely have both made multiple impact plays early on though.
Cameron Heyward has made his presence known on some plays, particularly against Baltimore.
Pittsburgh is really missing weapons in the passing game. It needs receivers in the worst way possible.
Buccaneers @ Cowboys (+4.5)
Interesting loss for the Buccaneers here. Seems like the team wasn't adequately prepared for this game given their recent winning streak, their statement win over the Chargers the week before, and the natural complacency that comes with being a clear road favorite in primetime. Bad run fits, biting on misdirection plays, dropped passes on critical plays, etc.
Cooper Rush wilts pretty easily under a semblance of pressure. Worth keeping in mind for the future.
It seems like the Buccaneers defense woke up in the second half. No more getting fooled on bootlegs and leaving cornerbacks alone in man coverage against the likes of CeeDee Lamb.
It seems Todd Bowles base defense is primarily man coverage complimented occasionally with wild blitzes.