Chiefs @ Steelers (+2.5)

All right, let's see if Russell Wilson can make hay with this receiving corps against the excellent Kansas defense.

So far, Pittsburgh has been having a hard time passing the ball to open the game. Meanwhile, Kansas has been cruising on offense. As if the return of Hollywood Brown didn't give them enough weapons, Justin Watson has been fantastic for them. Add in Noah Gray and the Chiefs might have the most complete offense in the NFL.

Russell Wilson enjoys throwing contested balls to the sideline and seam throws over the safeties. The problem is passing games need more tricks up its sleeve if it wants to remain steadily consistent.

Pittsburgh is adamant on running the ball even when it clearly doesn't work. So far, second half adjustments haven't borne any fruit. Defensively, it seems things have gotten worse for the Steelers. They haven't figured out a way to limit the quick passing game that's been paying dividends for these Chiefs. Their pass rush has been neutered as a result.

Going back to their game from last week, it's clear the Steelers are just undisciplined defensively when it comes to coverage. They're prone to reacting way too quickly to the quarterback's eyes. Competent quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes can slice them up when they fail to adjust. I'm going to bill Tomlin as a red-chip defensive coach.

Going back to last week, the Pittsburgh pass rush hasn't quite been there. I'm not sure if it's related to health or defensive strategy, but T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith have not been as effective as they should be. Old man Cameron Heyward has been the best lineman for this defense.

Ravens @ Texans (+6.5)

Ravens having a ball of a time just running the ball in the first quarter. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud seems a bit nervous and jittery opening the game. To be fair, it doesn't help when the Ravens are suffocating his pocket and penetrating through his line with stunts.

Once again, the Texans overaggression on defense is costing them here. The Ravens are getting away with every sort of stunt and misdirection ploy on offense. Defensive linemen and coverage personnel are biting way too quickly on initial reads. It's killing them on all these different rushing concepts that the Ravens employ.

Baltimore enjoys leveraging misdirection and gamesmanship on its rushing plays.

Going back to last week, Kyle Van Noy and Nmandi Madabuike are trying to declare themselves as elite pass rushers. A stronger case can be made for the former in my humble opinion.

Kyle Hamilton is an elite player without question. Roquan Smith deserves consideration as such.

Seahawks @ Bears (+4)

I'm still not sure what the hell is wrong with the Seahawks passing offense. Part of the impotence can be attributed to Ryan Grubb failing to find a way to spark this offense for most of the season. But so much of the blame can also be put on Geno Smith's shoulders. The man looks a little lost when trying to work in the structure of the offense. He's holding on to the ball and seems reluctant to throw unless the receiver finishes his route and signals that he's ready. It seems like timing throws and defensive reads just aren't facets of this offense - most of the offense is about Geno Smith playing backyard football and working off the cuff. It's a style of football that works best during the two-minute drills.

Seattle's defensive line has emerged as one of the best lines in the league, led by the likes of Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu, and a few other edge rushers.

Chargers @ Patriots (+4)

I hate these Patriots. How do you play the Bills tight last week only to start out the game against the Chargers flaccid?

Jerod Mayo is a green chip coach. Once again, I do think I need to start factoring in cultural issues more when evaluating complacency. Their level of play early in the game signifies to me that this team didn't really practice much leading up to this contest.

I'm also convinced Maye might be concussed, as he took a hard hit to the head early in the game.

Broncos @ Bengals (+3.5)

Aggravating to see this Broncos passing game be nerfed so badly by Cincinnati's defense. Once again more proof that rookie quarterbacks tend to fall apart against complex defenses. The only thing keeping Denver competitive in this game is their rushing game.

These Bengals are such a force on offense. Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Mike Gesicki, Chase Browns....they are so rich in weaponry, but why does it take so long for them to to recognize that?

Riley Moss is such a liability in coverage for these Broncos, it's aggravating.

Marvin Mims and Courtland Sutton are considered vectors, but not definitive ones. Bo Nix is limited in his ability to read complex defenses.

Cardinals @ Rams (-6.5)

The Cardinals know these Ram bootleg concepts better than the Rams themselves. Twice, Stafford has nearly been picked off on these bootlegs.

As expected, the Rams come out extremely flaccid against an underwhelming but diligent Cardinal club.

Jared Verse has had a few moments of acknowledgement, but otherwise, this Rams pass rush has been asleep.

I suspect the Rams are only seeking out the sticks on third and shorts, in keeping with its identity as a possession-oriented offense.

Kyler Murray is a bit of a mess, especially later int he season. He has a propensity to get lost in the play. And his rushing ability seems somewhat limited in the second half of the season, especially in the red zone.

Trey McBride and James Conner are definitive vectors for the Cardinals. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a considered vector.

You really have to love how stoic Jonathan Gannon remains on the sideline.

Packers @ Vikings (-1)

The Vikings love their dime personnel on passing third downs. It seems like Brian Flores likes to add muscle to his secondary to ensure they hold up in two-deep safety man coverage while his defensive line works to generate pressure on the opposing quarterback. So far, it's working somewhat in this game - Jordan Love looks flummoxed quite a bit.

Jalen Nailor has been the star of the game so far in his complimentary role as the third receiver of the team. T.J. Hockenson has had a few moments as well.

Defensive line performances have been tough to evaluate. Nobody has really stood out much. Harrison Philips has made some lovely stops in the running game for the Vikings. Likewise, Devonte Wyatt has made a few stops of his own for the Packers. Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Kenny Clark, Arron Mosby, Lukas Van Ness, and Karl Brooks have flashed on tape, though not nearly enough for my liking.

Edgerrin Cooper has been sensational as the middle linebacker for the Packers. Mark him as an elite defender in his role as the team's main linebacker as well as an occasional blitzer.

I'm thinking the Vikings knew that the Packers would try and bracket Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as much as possible, which would explain the increase in targets for Jalen Nailor. It's otherwise pretty odd that a receiver who's been absolutely inconsequential since October is playing such a big role in this game for reasons not related to injury.

Green Bay seems to have embraced this whole concept of "pass rush by committee" as not a single one of their line defenders has individually excelled so far in this game. It's a bold strategy, but a losing one in the postseason.

The Packers desperately miss Christian Watson and his contributions to the passing game. It's clear he's the alpha receiver on their roster. Neither Romeo Doubs nor Dontayvion Wicks proved themselves capable of carrying the burden of the receiving games on their shoulders. Tucker Kraft is more a complimentary piece than an actual dog who could play in any condition.

I like the Packers and the culture they developed, but it's clear the talent isn't on pace to develop into form by the postseason. They're missing elite skill players on offense and first-class pass rushers.

Falcons @ Commanders (-4.5)

Seems like the Commanders are trying to pick the Falcons apart using quick slant routes down the seams. Maybe they've picked up on an Atlanta tendency through film study?

Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler (to an extent) have had fantastic games so far. The same cannot be said about the back seven of the defense, as Bijan Robinson and Tyler Algier has been gashing the Commanders for significant chunks of yardage in the ground game.

This Atlanta team really struggles against mobile quarterbacks. Make this a statement for Jimmy Lake.

Jayden Daniels and his ability to run has killed the Falcons all game. Otherwise, the passing game didn't produce much ROI other than Olamides Zaccharias converting some first downs on some critical drives and Zach Ertz coming up big in the red zone with two touchdown catches. The fact that Washington doesn't have much of a passing game despite Jayden's ability to maneuever around the pocket and Terry McLaurin's innate talent as a receiver does concern me.

What makes this sad is that the Falcons do have some fine talent along the front of their defensive line, but they were not enough.

These Commanders love stunting along their defensive front. I wonder if this is a conscious part of their identity or simply a tactical adjustment given all the injuries along Atlanta's offensive front.

LESSONS

I think watching the Texans and Steelers play on Christmas confirmed to me one thing - complacency should only be considered when at least five complacency criteria are met. Houston and Pittsburgh had multiple reasons to play harder this week and yet the both of them collapsed against far better competition.

Once again, be cautious of rookie quarterbacks contesting against complex defenses.

I do think Kellen Moore is one of the best coaches out there when it comes to whipping second-string quarterbacks into shape quickly. Credit him as a master at preparing quarterbacks who are thrust into emergency duty with only a week's notice.