Bengals @ Steelers (+1)
This game is proof that division rematches do give the loser in the first go-around an edge that should be accounted for. Probably as a complacency metric. Pittsburgh has plenty of reasons to excel today and yet their passing game has been completely nerfed. Russell Wilson has less than 100 yards of passing on only 5 completions entering the fourth quarter. Lou Anarumo and his defense clearly learned some lessons of their own after the last time these two clubs danced.
Cordarelle Patterson seems like a waste of a gadget player. He's not as effective on this Steeler team.
The only reason this game is so close is because Chase Brown and Tee Higgins are both out. The former was ruled out before the game began and the latter made his exit sometime in the first half after aggravating an ankle injury.
Pat Freiermuth has been sensational, especially given how pathetic George Pickens has been.
Vikings @ Lions (-2.5)
Very nice to see Jonathan Greenard and Josh Metellus make such a big impact in this game. It makes me want to rethink their grading. I have the former graded as a potentially elite defensive pass rusher while the latter is not even notated.
NBC seems to be making a big deal of this match-up between Justin Jefferson and the rookie cornerback shadowing him, but they've so far failed to note that a good number of balls thrown in his direction were off-target because the Lions are mounting pressure on Sam Darnold quicker than expected via the blitz. On one particular blitz, Brian Branch threw off Darnold's rhythm, leading him to lob up a wild pass outside Jefferson's range.
That being said, the rookie cornerback Amik Robertson did make one great play on the ball, undercutting Jefferson on an end zone and nearly intercepting the pass. It's something the Vikings will make sure never to repeat again should these two teams meet again in the postseason.
I'm actually quietly surprised at the amount of pressure Detroit is able to muster against Darnold here. Being without their two best pass rushers doesn't seem to be really effecting them much here - this Levi kid, Paschal, and Za'Darius Smith are doing just fine on their own.
Darnold's propensity to hold on to the ball has been his worst enemy this game, especially given the way Detroit seems committed to this strategy of compressing the pocket with power instead of wild stunts. Then again, Minnesota's offense has never been predicated on quick passes and timing throws.
Alex Anzalone is looking decent in his return back from injury.
Once again, Minnesota's tendency to station their book-end pass rushers wide out on the edges has been giving this Detroit lateral running game fits. The Lions are trying to adjust by running directly up the middle, but results have been mixed.
The Vikings obnoxious tendency to blitz linebackers and flat defenders has really left some holes in coverage that Goff has been exploiting in the second half.
LESSONS
Add yet another complacency criteria in to the mix here - in division rematches, the loser from the first game gains motivation.
