Bills @ Dolphins (-2.5)

Need to watch the Bills defensive line here and assess what they're doing on defense under a new defensive coordinator. Same thing with the Dolphins.

So far, doesn't look like Miami is able to get much pressure on Josh Allen.

Ed Oliver is looking damn good this game. 3 separate disruptions in the first half alone.

The Bills are a skinny bunch on defense. Which serves them well when it comes to speed. But to compensate for their lack of size sometimes, they seem to rely heavily on gambles. Defensive linemen, linebackers, and backs will sometimes blitz and make decisions to try and preempt the offense. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't.

No team runs nickel coverage more than the Bills.

Zach Sieler seems to be picking up where he left off last year.

Buccaneers @ Lions (-7.5)

It'll be instructive to watch how things changes for the Buccaneers this time around now with Liam Coen at offensive coordinator.

I always despite defenses that let up huge gains on 3rd down. And Detroit did just that against Tampa Bay, putting the latter in prime position for a long-distance field goal.

Chris Godwin has been singlehandedly destroying this Detroit coverage and Aaron Glenn seems to have done precious little to adjust. Seems about right.

I think Tampa Bay is playing Tampa-2 coverage on defense. It seems to be working though, as it's limit the Lions offense at critical points.

I still wonder if teams coming off emotional games tend to underperform the next week should the public/media mark them as heavy favorites. This might need to be included as one such case. The sloppy execution at the end of the first half really exemplified this complacent mindset that really bogged their offense in the first half.

The Lions clearly came into this game with a pass-first mindset. The fourth quarter just started and Goff has already logged over 35 passes. Perhaps it made sense given the Buccaneers were a little short-handed in coverage, but Todd Bowles was able to adjust accordingly.

Saints @ Cowboys (-6.5)

You have to give the Saints credit for coming out strong. A touchdown bomb to Shaheed has put the Saints ahead of the Cowboys by double-digits.

Browns @ Jaguars (-3)

This Jaguars team seriously lacks discipline and operational efficiency on offense. It hasn't been an effort worthy of opening day, especially against a defense known to underperform on the road.

Jerry Jeudy may be a vector for this Cleveland offense.

Trevor Laurence's pocket presence is pretty poor, not going to lie. On multiple occasions, he failed to detect pressure.

Giants @ Commanders (-2.5)

So frustrating to watch this Giants defense flail against the Commanders ground game. Apparently, New York's defense needs considerably work, even when they're blitzing as much as they seem to be in this game.

Zach Ertz is looking like a vector for this offense.

The more I watch this Washington team, the brighter their future looks. Multiple weapons on offense, a promising young quarterback with potential, and a capable offensive coordinator leading the whole operation. Defensively, some work remains to be done.

On paper, Washington should be solid defending against the run. Two high-end defensive tackles and a respectable linebacking corps should give them a edge here.

Daniel Jones seems to really favor Malik Nabers.

Rams @ Cardinals (-1.5)

Kyler Murray's ability to run wild combined with Marvin Harrison's ability to catch big passes can really lead to some huge plays. The Rams were caught completely off-guard by this combination.

Arizona has a solid defensive plan. Blanket Cooper Kupp in double-coverage and attack the line of scrimmage hard to keep the Rams ground game from popping off.

I'm now convinced Week 1 performances need to be cautiously interpreted. This is a vastly different offense. It's clear Arizona needed a full game's week of experience to actually clean up some bad tendencies and learn how to better utilize their strengths.

On top of that, it's become evident to me that given the style of defense that the Rams run, losing Aaron Donald was a far bigger blow than I even imagined. Without Donald anchoring the middle of the line, their run defense and pass rush have fallen back a few steps. That loss in the run defense will hurt them bigly against teams that know how to rush the ball (Detroit, Arizona, etc).

Bears @ Texans (-6.5)

DeMeco has been more than happy bringing the blitz against Caleb. And it's been working, according to NextGenStats. It's an unusual change of style from DeMeco Ryans, who's normally prone to only rushing four players at a time.

The Bears have a problem handling blitzes. Their offensive line cannot handle exotic rushes, nor can they really mount much of a ground game.

CJ Stroud looks comfortable in the pocket. Very nice to see him continue his development as a capable quarterback in today's NFL.

Saints @ Cowboys (-6.5)

Not a bad effort by the Cowboys. But I think complacency hit them hard after a hot start last week. On top of that, the Saints are throwing concepts at them that explicitly prey on their tendency to be overly aggressive on defense.

New Orleans' protection schemes on offense might be the real deal. I'm quietly impressed. The Saints are handling Micah Parsons quite well.

Rasheed Shaheen is a vector on the Saints offense, without question.

The Cowboys are producing yardage on offense without Jake Ferguson. A bigger issue here is that Dak could do a better job working other receivers into the fold. It also doesn't help that the Cowboys don't seem to have much a ground game.

Falcons @ Eagles (-6.5)

Eagles have come out looking slow and fairly uncoordinated. It doesn't help that they're missing the services of their best weapon in the passing game. But this performance so far seems to lend credence to the theory of big favorites playing hungover coming off an emotional victory the week before. Then again, one can argue that Philadelphia's win against Green Bay last week wasn't all that glorious...

Surprisingly, the Falcons seem to be producing on offense by relying on concepts that Arthur Smith instilled in this team from last year.

Jalen Hurts is playing below his pay grade. It's clear he's no longer the same force he once was when the Eagles went to the Super Bowl under his leadership not too long ago.

Two early decisions by Nick Sirianni really underlines the way his team came into this contest not giving much of a damn. On a drive where Saquon was chewing off 9+ yards per rush, Sirianni decided to have Jalen pass the ball on a 3rd and 4 on the opponent's 9-yard line. Baffling. And as if that wasn't enough, Sirianni decided to go for it on 4th down as well. If you were always planning on playing the 4th down, why not just run the ball on 3rd down to try and get closer to the line of gain? That would also open up more plays to you (or give you an opportunity at a tush push). Just horrible mismanagement here. It's clear the Eagles didn't give much a shit about this game.

LESSONS

Be wary of offenses that cannot score touchdowns in the second half. The Giants and the Jaguars were unable to score touchdowns in the second during the first week of the season. They respectively followed up those bad performances with a pedestrian outing in the second week.

Be wary of defenses that give up significant gains on 3rd and forever. It takes a unique type of ineptitude to pull that off.

Major favorites are almost always guaranteed to underperform if they're coming off an emotional win the week before. That's the biggest lesson this week has shown me. Is this something unique to the early part of the season or will we see this hangover effect even as we progress further into the season?