Eagles @ Saints (-2.5)

Much will be made of the boneheaded mistakes the Saints to hand the win over to the Eagles, but the real winner is Vic Fangio and his defense. To limit Derek Carr and the offense to 12 points is impressive. I'll need to watch the tape. On top of that, the Eagles ability to run the ball effectively carried them well today.

Looks like my initial hunches were on the money here regarding whether Klint Kubiak's system would endure against the penny/bear fronts Vic Fangio likes to incorporate in his playbook. Turns out Kubiak's offensive philosophy doesn't deviate all that much from the McVay-Shanahan school of offense where he cut his teeth as a coach. Unfortunately for the Saints, Vic Fangio knows how to neutralize such an offense with his defensive fronts. And that's exactly what happened here - the Saints were really unable to do much over ground given the Eagles held their own in the trenches. Without a reliable rushing game, the burden of production was on Derek Carr's shoulders. But as history has shown us time and time again, Carr tends to wither under pressure, especially with opposing pass rushers breathing down his neck. Which is exactly what happened as Jalen Carter finally popped off on what ended up being a career day for him.

Texans @ Vikings (+2.5)

Credit where credit is due - Brian Flores is one of the best defensive coaches in the league. His stint as a head coach may have been disastrous, but the man knows how to field a competent defense. His haze blitzing frustrated Houston all day long. Not only that, but his defense has demonstrated an ability to change up the pace of their blitzing midway through the game, which should serve them well going forward. Versatility in play style is the mark of a great defense.

Interestingly enough, no defense operates from dime personnel more than the Vikings. And yet, that still doesn't stop Minnesota from stationing quite a few resources close to the line of scrimmage. It makes sense though - the pass coverage needs to hold up just long enough for their blitzes to hit home. Minnesota's exotic blitzes will be mostly fruitless If opposing quarterbacks are too comfortable throwing to their hot reads, so Flores needs to ensure coverage is tight enough in the short and intermediate areas of the field so that his pass rushers have time to wreak havoc on the pocket.

Speaking of which, it's time to certify Houston's offensive line as woefully bad. And remember what we always say about bad offensive lines - they don't travel.

Broncos @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

Yet more proof that heavy favorites coming off noteworthy wins are inclined to severely underperform.

Ravens @ Cowboys (+1)

Ravens are looking like they've shaken off their bad loss to the Raiders last week.

Jaguars @ Bills (-5.5)

My notes from last year were SPOT FUCKING ON. Last year, these same Bills lost to the Jaguars in London even though they were 5-6 point favorites. This year, these same Bills are smashing the Jaguars as 5-6 point favorites. The difference? Traveling to London really threw Buffalo off-kilter. Ken Dorsey's uninspiring play-calling didn't help much either, but the difference in defensive performance alone seems to suggest London was a much greater factor than people originally thought. Credit to the Bills subreddit for highlighting how disruptive the journey to London ended up being for the Bills.

Also, let this game be further proof that Ken Dorsey is nothing more than a green-chip coordinator. It only took three quarters for the Bills to rack up 40 points whereas this same unit struggled significantly last year.

Buffalo

Commanders @ Bengals (-8.5)

Kliff Kingsbury once again showing why he's one of the better offensive minds in the league. I think Washington's offense will be fine so long as they can keep Jayden Daniels healthy over the course of the season.

More importantly, I WAS RIGHT. The Bengals were destined to disappoint, coming off an emotional loss to a team they were favored to beat by a wide margin. Still, I'm shocked at how badly they're playing. Maybe Dan Quinn deserves more kudos for preparing his team well this week...

Giants @ Browns (-6.5)

Giants prepared well offensively. Knowing that the Browns defenders love being to aggressively attack the pocket, Daboll called several screens and jet sweeps designed to prey on such defensive aggression.

Speaking of which....Brian Daboll is the playcaller now?

Shane Bowen calling blitzes early. Very unexpected.

Daniel Jones is still an ugly mess when he's pressured.

The first half has been a masterclass from the Giants from a strategy standpoint. It's also great to see Wan-Dale Robinson and Jalen Hyatt be more involved on the field.

Lions @ Cardinals (+3)

Brian Branch and Aidan Hutchinson are elite players on this defense. Carlton Davis and Alim McNeill deserve consideration as well for being complimentary players on defense.

These Lions play hard and fast, clearly in the image of their head coach.

It's clear the Cardinals are making a concerted effort to have Kyler Murray run less, smartly so given his fragility. Kudos to Drew Petzing for recognizing that Kyler's durability is an issue.