Buccaneers @ Falcons (-1.5)

Baker Mayfield is far more dependent on Chris Godwin than Mike Evans, interestingly enough. Maybe more of a natural connection?

Atlanta's defense is problematic. The Buccaneers are running roughshod all over them.

All of Tampa Bay's pass rushers have shown up on tape in one form or another. It's been a pretty good night for Todd Bowles' defense, despite having let up 27 points. Yaya Diaby has perhaps been the most consistent on tape.

Baker Mayfield's running ability is underrated.

Kudos to Tampa Bay for being able to run in the fourth quarter when Atlanta is well aware they want to run the ball.

Yaya Diaby might be considered an elite talent if he can demonstrate more great performances like the one tonight.

Atlanta was a little lucky to win tonight. It took literally every second and a missed penalty to bail them out into overtime. But this is the third time this season Atlanta has won late in the fourth quarter. They've demonstrated that mental fortitude to mount comebacks.

Browns @ Commanders (-3)

Shelby Harris is somebody who's making an impact so far for these Browns.

I think Frankie Luvu can be considered an elite defensive player for Washington.

Cleveland has lost its ability to rush the passer. Teams are now making a concerted effort to take Myles Garrett out of the game. It also helps that he's clearly playing injured. Without Garrett, nobody else on this Browns team can carry the burden of the pass rush.

This surprisingly productive Washington offense will be throwing teams off for the better part of the season, especially given that Jayden Daniels can sit back in the pocket and function as a dropback passer if needed.

Bills @ Texans (-1)

Buffalo has serious issues defending against rushing plays and short-yardage plays. I am not fully sure why. But when the Texans are running roughshod all over you early in the game, you know you have issues.

Texans are blitzing Josh Allen and it's been working out so far. Allen still has a tendency to hold on to the ball.

Taylor Rapp's safety presence was sorely missed on when Stroud unloaded a deep bomb for a touchdown to Nico Collins.

Is DaQuan Jones even a force anymore in the defensive trenches?

Josh Allen is once again returning to bad habits. Not throwing the ball short with any sort of discipline, trying to play hero ball to his team's detriment, etc...

Credit to the Texans for keeping Josh Allen's rushes in check through the way they're blitzing and utilizing their linebackers as spies.

Buffalo's defense honestly seems unusually slow. I wonder why considering they trade size for speed. Either way, CJ Stroud should not be throwing a nearly perfect game in the first half against a McDermott defense.

When Duwuane Smoot has been your best pass rusher for the day, you know you have serious problems in the trench.

Houston's defense is incredibly well-coached. Mark DeMeco Ryans as a blue-chip coach.

Oddly enough, the Texans managed to control the penalties today. I think at home against serious competition, Houston will make a concerted effort to temper the penalties. But on the road or against lesser competition, the Texans don't carry themselves with the same discipline.

Both of these teams have issue at receiver depth. Without Khalil Shakir, Josh Allen's passes are toothless - he only completed 9 passes out of 30 attempts. Likewise, Nico Collins is the heart and soul of Houston's passing offense. Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Stefon Diggs cannot compensate for his production at all.

Giants @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I think Seahawks were caught sleeping on the Giants, at least on their first drive.

I think this may be a case of complacency. The Seahawks coming off an emotionally draining defeat matching up at home against a heavy underdog missing some of its key players...all these factors may have have the Seattle feeling way too content during the week. How they come out in the second half will be telling...

Nothing sums up offensive line ineptitude better than failing to push the ball forward a few inches on 2 successive downs for a touchdown. The Giants are absolutely pathetic at run-blocking.

That being said, the Giants are actually having a good day running the ball. Part of that is their willingness to run the ball laterally. Part of it is Tyrone Tracy having a spectacular day against an unprepared Seahawks defense. Honestly, Tracy has better vision and movement than Devin Singletary.

Finally, the investments the Giants have made along their defensive front are paying off handsomely. Dexter Lawrence, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Brian Burns have all made impact plays.

Raiders @ Broncos (-3)

Not going to lie, the Broncos are pretty effective on their short-yardage plays. It's clear they've practiced these plays over and over, likely as a way to compensate for Bo Nix's inability to matriculate the ball downfield with respectable passes.

I think complacency hit the Broncos in the first half following their stunning upset of the Jets last week. Their second half performance has been miles better comparatively. Credit to Denver's coaching staff too for making the necessary adjustments in the second half to turn this game into a one-way rout.

Cowboys @ Steelers (-2)

The Steelers have some serious issues with the integrity of their pass coverage. It's an issue that can be quickly exposed if the front is unable to get any pressure on the opposing quarterback.

Nick Herbig is a gamer for this Steeler defense. He might be that complimentary piece opposite T.J. Watt.

Mike McCarthy is very much all about game management. His key to victory lies in not having his team work out of a scoring deficit. There's a reason he opts to possess the ball in the opening quarter and doesn't look to take too many risks from negative game script.

This is a painful game. The turnover differential is +3 in favor of the Steelers and the Cowboys are still down only by 4 points. Outside of scripted drives to open up each half, Justin Fields and company have produced precious little. The ground game has worked in spurts, but the passing game hasn't taken off yet. George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth should have more of a presence in this game, but Fields is having trouble working against the Cowboys coverage.

To think....if Dallas doesn't have all those turnovers, they'd likely be up by a comfortable margin. But the Cowboys can't seem to help themselves.

Bishop is a liability in coverage for the Steelers.

Turpin can develop into a weapon for the Cowboys if they use him properly.

I think the Cowboys have keyed in on a weakness of Justin Fields - he can't air the ball out or arc it properly. His passes tend to be direct and low. The problem is that cornerbacks can adequately defend against this style of passing by positioning themselves in between the receiver and the quarterback.

You know, I can see why quarterbacks have such outsized influence on the spread. I have no doubt Arthur Smith has some good play calls in his book, but Justin Fields is so limited that some of those plays simply will not work. And quarterback runs can only generate so much yardage. New rule of thumb - be wary of favorites coming in to a match with the worse quarterback.