49ers @ Seahawks (+3.5)

Geno Smith is still a flawed quarterback. And his dependence on D.K. Metcalf seems like something defenses understand given the way Metcalf has been blanketed in coverage throughout much of the game.

It's remarkable how similar this game ended up being to last year's game in Seattle. When it comes to teams playing one another again from last year, nothing seems to matter more than quarterbacks.

Seattle's offensive linemen have been caught multiple times tonight reacting too slow after the snap. It's almost as if this line is not in sync, either due to injury or lack of practice.

Commanders @ Ravens (-6.5)

As expected, both defenses have demonstrated themselves to be sieves. Why? Is it the coverage? Is it the lack of pass rush? We'll see.

The Ravens are excellent running laterally on tight formation plays that tend to draw defenses towards the middle of the field.

Mark Andrews has been making an impact in this game.

Benjamin St. Juste is a liability in coverage for the Commanders.

Washington has issues defending against the run even when they load the box.

I think Kyle Van Noy is making a case for himself as an elite pass rusher. Now if Mdakubike can consistently emerge as a force in the trenches, the Ravens have enough players to justify elite designation. On multiple occasions has he been important in controlling Jayden in the pocket. On another occasion, he was able to disrupt a gadget player the Commanders would have likely executed for big yardage.

One thing worth noting - the Ravens came into this game prepared despite coming off an emotional road victory as big favorites. Perhaps the hype around Washington was enough to help them focus this week?

Browns @ Eagles (-8.5)

One thing about the Eagles - a lack of discipline on offense. False starts are hurting them.

The Browns are still a mess along that offensive front. Once again, losing Bill Callahan has been costly.

Cardinals @ Packers (-5.5)

Kudos to the Packers for not taking this game lightly. Green Bay is taking care of business at home.

Lions @ Cowboys (+3)

Cowboys are having trouble rushing the passer against Detroit's elite offensive front. Makes me wonder how they were able to succeed against Pittsburgh's so much decent front. Maybe it's easier to tactically organize a pass rush against a lesser quarterback. But against Jared Goff and this elite Detroit offensive front, it's just not the same without Micah Parsons.

Mike McCarthy really trying to get the ground game going to try and keep the defense off the field. Even he knows he's in trouble.

Dak's interception woes continue. Really says something about the creative flow of this offense that defenses have been able to read them at key moments two weeks in a row. Oddly enough, yet another interception in the red zone too.

Detroit's running game is just fantastic. As are their trick plays. Their trick plays work because defenses have to respect the breadth of their weaponry.

The minute Dallas loses the lead, things usually go from bad to worse. Speaks quite a bit to the lack of quality coaching.

Alim McNeill making a case for himself as an elite pass rusher. I do need to see more consistency from him given his unremarkable history and his low numbers before today's game.

Falcons @ Panthers (+6.5)

So much sloppiness from the Panthers on their first offensive drive. Do they even practice hard at all during the week?

I love seeing the Falcons come out so slow on offense. Validates my theory of complacence.

After watching this game, I respect the Falcons offense much more just for all the motion it integrates. It was this motion that fooled Carolina's coverage defense time after time.

Speaking of Carolina, I can't trust them. They might have the league's worst coverage unit with the way they're blowing coverages against Atlanta's pedestrian receiving corps. Combine that with a lack of notable pass rushers and a linebacking corps ravaged by injury and you have the league's worst defense by a mile. I feel silly trusting them with a pick here.

Carolina's offense is spectacularly boring. Very little use of motion, very little variation in personnel grouping...it's just more or less an offense that relies upon Andy Dalton to go out there and play backyard football.

Chargers @ Broncos (+3)

A part of me wonders if the Broncos blitzes on defense are finally being exposed now that they're matching up against a smart quarterback in Justin Herbert.

Once again, this Charger offense is just boring. In true Jim Harbaugh fashion, it's all predicated on short-yardage plays and yards after the catch. Herbert looks a little neutered operating within the structure of this offense.

That being said, I'm very impressed at this Charger offensive line. They're holding up remarkably well against a top-flight Denver defensive front.

Bengals @ Giants (-3.5)

B.J. Hill with some major pressures to kill two Giant drives. So has Sheldon Rankins. The Bengals needed their defensive tackles more than I anticipated.

Giants have one of the best defenses in the league, hands down. Azeez Ojulari, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Brian Burns, and Dexter Lawrence are all coming alive. I think I owe Shane Bowen an apology.

This Giants offense is boring. Too many slants mixed with short yardage plays and the occasional deep ball into contested coverage that usually goes nowhere. It's uninspiring and unsustainable unless New York develops a competent ground game or a zone offense similar to what the Shanahans popularized. But that's not going to happen, especially with Daniel Jones under center.

Bills @ Jets (+2.5)

I suspect the Jets have a tell. Every time you see significant motion pre-snap, you're looking at a run play. And I think Buffalo might have picked up on this tell too.

Jets can win this, but it required so much luck. A successful hail mary bomb, a fortunate penalty to negate a sack leading to a field goal...

Honestly, the Jets seem like a team missing practice and touch. Missed opportunities, silly pre-snap penalties, offensive line issues....

The Bills are still unable to finish games with much grace.

Steelers @ Raiders (+3)

It's sad that the scoring differential became as ridiculous as it ended up being. The reality was that the Steelers and the Raiders were not all that different in terms of performance. The key differences here ended up being discipline and strategy. Discipline-wise, Pittsburgh stayed composed for much of the game and stayed true to character while the Raiders ruined several opportunities through penalties or poor execution. Strategically, the Raiders alarmingly dialed Aidan O'Connell back and essentially waved the white flag on drives upon hitting negative game script.

It was all too easy to render this Raider offense impotent - all the Steelers had to do was sit on short routes and enforce their will against the power run game. Once Pittsburgh's defense adjusted, Vegas never really adapted or tried anything new. The difference here wasn't talent - it was coaching and culture.

Maxx Crosby singlehandedly ended some drives on his own. T.J. Watt showed up too in some integral moments, specifically on a turnover that ended up changing momentum in Pittsburgh's favor.

Such a conservative offense I'm seeing from the Raiders. Not the first time I've seen something like this from Luke Getsy too - he pulled a similar stunt in Chicago when he was coaching Justin Fields. I'm rethinking whether Getsy actually offers any serious value as an offensive mind.

One thing worth noting from the commentators on this game - Antonio Pierce and Luke Getsy have been emphasizing ball security the entire week leading up to this game. In fact, it was the lack of ball security from Gardner Minshew last week that led Pierce to make the switch at quarterback.

Jaguars vs. Bears (-1.5)

It wasn't until the 2nd quarter that the Bears finally loosened up and starting invoking the more creative plays out of their playbook. Once they started running Caleb Williams and incorporating more misdirection, that's when they started posting up points.

Caleb still has issues. Not only was he late throwing the ball to DJ Moore, it was wildly underthrown as well, resulting in an interception on what was a very promising drive to close out the first half.

The blitzes from the Bears have been ruining these Jaguar drives. In particular, Kyler Gordon has been damn near sensational on his blitzes as well as his tackling. The Bears seem to have two spectacular defensive backs in Gordon and Jaylon Johnson. It's apparently been a big part of their success.

Worth mentioning is the lack of execution from the Jaguars. Dropped passes and silly penalties.

NOTES

Rookie quarterbacks starting their first game ever tend not to do well. This week was further proof of that, as New Orleans and New England both lost in horrible fashion against opponents who had reason to play complacent.

Is it possible that organizations run by toxic/incompetent owners should count negatively towards complacency? If so, it would explain why Dallas played so flaccid today and why Carolina isn't quite impressing against an Atlanta team I suspect is playing somewhat lackadaisically.