Broncos @ Saints (+3)

The Saints are in far worse shape than I originally thought. That defense is sloppy. Javonte Williams was able to rush into the end zone untouched on his touchdown. On top of that, it seems like the Broncos are breaking tackles every other down. If New Orleans would wrap up and tackle seriously, this game would be so much closer.

Dennis Allen with some bizarre game management. He was all set to punt on one drive up until the crowd viciously boo'ed him. He gave in and decided to go for the fourth down, a gamble that ultimately panned out. On top of that, calling a timeout near the end of the half only to have the quarterback kneel was such a confusing move. I'm sensing a head coach that's very much out of his depth. And it's showing up here as well in the way his defense is performing.

Bo Nix has some serious issues with confidence, at least early in the game. The kid has happy feet and is prone to bad decisions. Those jitters tend to alleviate over the course of the game, but early in games, it's fair to label Bo as a major liability. Sean Payton needs to be simplify things for the boy early in the game, if only to settle his nerves and work him into a rhythm.

Texans @ Packers (-2.5)

This Tucker Kraft kid may be something special.

Joe Mixon is a premiere tailback. If it wasn't for him, Houston's offense is completely gutless. Simply look at the raw stats.

Pretty sad effort from Green Bay's rushing defense in the first half. Even in a goal-line style of defense, Joe Mixon had little issue pushing the ball into the endzone from five yards out. That being said, kudos to Green Bay adjusted in the second half given the way they're completely neutered the ground game.

Eagles @ Giants (+3.5)

Once again, the Giants are not hitting any deep balls. The big pass is something that's sorely missing from their offensive repertoire. And I feel the blame for that mostly lies at the feet of Daniel Jones. Seeing him rather roll out and scramble forward on 3rd and long is proof to me that his vision is severely limited.

New York's offensive line has issues, especially without Andrew Thomas at left tackle.

Jalen Hurts is not comfortable throwing the ball over the middle. That EPA chart on Reddit illustrated this very fact quite aptly.

The interior of the Giants line is being exposed by this Philadelphia defensive front. Let me say that Vic Fangio schemes well against weak limited offenses. He's done it earlier in the season against the Saints and he's doing it again this week.

Lions @ Vikings (-1.5)

This Detroit offensive front is impressive.

Titans @ Bills (-8.5)

Mason Rudolph sucks. Honestly, now that Cleveland will no longer be saddled with Deshaun Watson for the rest of the season, Tennessee may now have the worst quarterback situation in the league. Rudolph, Trevor Siemian, and Will Levis are all white-chip quarterbacks.

Keep in mind that Titans had a number of complacency factors going for them here. Not only are they underdogs by more than a touchdown, but Buffalo is coming off an emotional victory. If one or two more factors were trending in their direction, it's possible the Titans could have covered here, as Tennessee had the game in hand for an entire half before Buffalo woke up in the third quarter and blasted them to win the game and cover the nasty spread.

An incredibly ill-advised fourth-down decision from Brian Callahan was made worse with what ended up being a very dull run play that was telegraphed before the snap. This is problematic. Tennessee has a ways to go before it can even be considered mediocre.

Buffalo might have two deep threats in Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid.

I swear, these Bills love to beat up on bad teams. Even Greg Rousseau is getting in on the fun.

Seahawks @ Falcons (-3)

Seattle's run defense has been pretty good. I think the return of Byron Murphy and the acquisition of Roy Robertson-Harris might have something to do with that.

I wonder if Atlanta came into this game ready for Seattle. Few people besides Raheem Morris should better understand Seattle's tendencies on offense. And yet, the end result is a blowout.

Nope, Raheem isn't apparently blanketing DK Metcalf in double coverage. Geno Smith's first major passing completion came courtesy of Geno Smith finding Metcalf wide open down the field.

Three false starts by the Atlanta Falcons in the first drive. On their home field.

What's up with these ass blitzes from Atlanta? Though I do suspect Seattle has finally adjusted on offense this season by utilizing max protect schemes on third down.

Seahawks have so much controlling the edge of the line of scrimmage against opposing rushers.

I have to be honest - this Falcon defense is pretty horrible. The efficiency numbers bear this out as well. Going by plays alone, this defense ranks among the worst. To give up a touchdown at the end of the first half on a 3rd and 15 takes a special degree of ineptitude. Kudos to Geno Smith for not rushing the throw knowing that the Falcons were only rushing three people at him.

Atlanta never really took this game seriously, did they? Just an all-around failure today, from coaching to passing and overall defense. The one positive that this team demonstrated today was that its ground game can remain productive even when the rest of the club is lagging. Atlanta has two fantastic tailbacks headlining their ground game. Outside of those two though, nothing else positive can be said with absolute and complete confidence.

Chiefs @ 49ers (-1.5)

Given that the 49ers are so banged up with Deebo Samuel exiting the game early, it makes sense to see Spagnuolo playing so many men in the box. Purdy has made some hay on some deep balls, but it's been a largely effective strategy.

Once again, Purdy throwing multiple interceptions in another embarrassing outing against a quality defense. Much of that can be owed to pressure in the pocket, namely George Karlaftis.

Jets @ Steelers (+2.5)

As noted by Chris Collinsworth, the Jets are making a concerted effort to keep T.J. Watt from wreaking havoc in the backfield.

To the Jets credit, they might be one of the few teams in the league with two elite defensive linemen - one in Will MacDonald IV and Quinnen Williams.

George Pickens' stock is going way up with Russell Wilson throwing him contested balls.

I think the difference in this game is that the Steelers are tougher, period. The Jets are a little soft, and nowhere does this softness manifest more than the offensive line and the way their receivers fail to come through on clutch moments.

And to be fair, the other difference is that with Russell Wilson leading this offense, it has a passing element that simply wasn't there before with Justin Fields. Touch passes, contested balls, pocket control....this Steeler team could be something special.

Let it be known that the Jets are an absolute mess because of the way Rodgers interacts with this team. I'm convinced he takes very little ownership of this offense, which is problematic given that everything has to ultimately run through him. His checks, audibles, and play calls dictate this offense, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rodgers actually puts in very little work to ensure that his teammates understand the finer nuances of his approach to offense. Something tells me he leaves that duty up to Hackett. And that type of delegation simply doesn't work with a quarterback that absolutely demands that his players be on the same page as him mentally.

Ravens @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

Good for Baker Mayfield for starting to slide on his scrambles.

What fantastic work from the Ravens offense. A well-designed quarterback run was called back fraudulently for holding, so what does Baltimore do? Anticipate Tampa will throw the blitz at them on the next down and set up a screen to exploit that for a touchdown.

Chargers @ Cardinals (+1.5)

Looks like Justin Herbert has had mixed results this game. I'll need to watch in more detail.

This Chargers offense is flaccid when it cannot run on early downs. It's sad. And without a fully healthy Ladd McConkey, the Chargers have no reliable weaponry in the receiving game.

It also seems like the Cardinals made a dedicated effort to limit the Charger ground game, something that likely caught them by surprise given Los Angeles' body language.

How can the Los Angeles defense be so sloppy as to give Kyler Murray a lane to escape the pocket and run 40+ yards for a touchdown?

I'm sensing Los Angeles wasn't as prepared for this game as the Cardinals. Arizona went out of their way to limit the Charger ground game, mostly by lining five people along the line of scrimmage and stationing defenders closer to the line of scrimmage.

LESSONS

Maybe I just don't get football? All four of my picks in the early afternoon window went to hell. Was it partly luck? Or am I just misreading things terribly here?

I need to watch the Titans and Dolphins games some more. In both of these games, the underdog should have received some complacency benefit. And it seemed like they did, at least in the first half. But in the second half, these teams ended up getting blown out, which makes me wonder just how much of an effect complacency should have on the spread. My original assumption was that if at least two factors encouraging complacency ended up being true, the underdog receives a massive benefit. But the more I think about this, the more I think the underdog requires at least three (maybe four?) factors here.

Then the question becomes what are those factors exactly? Here's a preliminary list...

• The favorite is favored by at least 3 points.
• The favorite is favored by at least 7 points.
• The favorite is favored by at least 10 points.
• The favorite is returning from a game where they've made a statement or suffered an emotional defeat. The game must have been played on a Sunday or Monday.
• The favorite has an important game scheduled the coming Thursday.
• The underdog is riddled with injuries.
• The favorite is obviously plagued by organizational toxicity
• The underdog is not obviously suffering from any significant organizational toxicity.
• The favorite won convincingly in its most recent game whereas the underdog lost significantly in its most recent match. It's not yet known if byes influence this dynamic.
• The favorite is on a 3+ game winning streak.
• The underdog is on a 3+ game losing streak.
• The underdog is playing in a primetime contest.

Worth watching is the Falcons game against Seattle. To me, I think Atlanta was caught being complacent as well.

I also suspect going forward that teams that play poorly in the beginning of the season will take even more time to correct themselves given the shortened practice schedule. Bad news for teams like the Jets and the Panthers.

Another thing worth noting when it comes to decoding how well-coached a defense might be - watch how defenders react when getting stiff-armed. The proper thing to do is to grab the arm, move it aside, and then make the tackle.

NEW STATEMENTS

This club cannot be trusted as a favorite against any semi-competent team.