Vikings @ Rams (+3)

The Rams were fortunate to score on their second drive. Referees helped them with two drive-sustaining penalties.

The defensive linemen on both teams have worked hard to kill any sort of scoring in the second half.

Stafford is re-establishing connections with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Add a bit more Tutu Atwell into the mix along with Kyren Williams and the Rams might have an offense approaching elite status.

The Rams rushing defense has been phenomenal tonight. Kudos to Chris Shula for turning around a league-worst run defense at the beginning of the year.

The defensive lineman that really stood out tonight - Andrew Van Ginkel. I'm ready to consider him an elite talent given his history too.

The Rams have several interesting prospects along their defensive front, but I'm not ready to declare anybody elite just yet. Byron Young probably has the best shot of being considered elite, but I need to see more disruptions from him. It seemed like the disruptions that the Rams were able to generate tonight were evenly spread across their defensive front.

Ravens @ Browns (+9)

This Cleveland offense looks rejuvenated and productive with Jameis Winston at its helm.

Kyle Hamilton has been fantastic on the first drive alone. No doubt he's elite-level talent.

Mike Hall Jr. has done some good work today putting pressure on Lamar.

It seems like Jameis Winston can connect well with Cleveland's receiving corps, namely Cedric Tillman and David Njoku.

Eagles @ Bengals (-2.5)

Mike Gesicki has made multiple drive-sustaining plays in this game. He's making a case for himself as a vector.

The Eagles offense is clearly at its best when operating from its 2022 playbook, where Jalen Hurts was let loose on designed runs and AJ Brown was there making the big plays that really facilitate production.

The Bengals have schematic issues on both sides of the ball. The offense just isn't getting it done with its lack of creativity. Any magic that happens is because Joe Burrow improvising and finding receivers in moments of desperation. But the designed plays simply aren't effective enough, especially when so many of them are geared to force the ball into Ja'Marr Chase's hands.

Tee Higgins not being in this game ultimately shifted the odds heavily in favor of the Eagles. I feel a little silly putting money on Cincinnatti without consulting the injury report, but without Higgins, the Bengals literally have no other dependable vector in the passing game but Ja'Marr Chase.

Sam Hubbard is useless. To see Philadelphia stonewall him with a tight end is all I need to see from him.

Too many people on this Cincinnati team look soft come the fourth quarter.

Jets @ Patriots (+7)

Much more play action from the Jets. It's throwing the Patriots defense off considering all the times I've seen them biting hard on the play-action fakes.

Packers @ Jaguars (+5)

Solid work from Trevon Walker killing that first Packers drive.

Walker Little at left tackle for the Jaguars has been a liability so far. Packers edge rushers seem to have little issue working past him.

Definitely seems like Jacksonville plays quite a bit of man coverage with single-high safety.

Romeo Doubs is a vector on this Packer offense.

How are the Jaguars so bad? I don't understand? You have multiple vectors on offense (Bryan Thomas Jr, Tank Bigsby, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram) as well as two notable pass rushers on defense. And yet this team continues to underwhelm and choke away games.

Zone runs don't work very well against the Packers defense given that some of their ends tend to line up wide. Or maybe the Jaguars are just too slow along the interior of their offensive front?

What the fuck are these Jaguars doing playing nickel defense and two-high safety against Malik Willis?

Then again, the bigger question might be...why did Josh Jacobs pop off only when Malik Willis was inserted at quarterback? A part of me suspects the Jaguars phoned in the game once Love left. If their gap integrity, defensive discipline, and intensity suffered as a result of complacence, it would explain that one spectacular drive by Josh Jacobs in the third quarter where all five of his runs were successful, something that shouldn't really happen given his success rate up until then was hovering somewhere around 50%. On the other hand, if this theory was true, the Jaguars defense should have mentally corrected themselves after falling behind by 10 points in the fourth quarter. And they did....somewhat. Josh Jacobs still had a few more successful runs, but those only came after broken tackles and concerted efforts on short-yardage downs.

Josh Jacobs is a vector on this Packer offense, without a doubt.

Bills @ Seahawks (+3)

Ironic that Seattle is not comfortable playing in the rain. Twice they have shot themselves in the red zone because of rain. Instead of 14 points, they only have 3 points to show for all that work.

A completely unnecessary roughing the passer by Seattle that led to a Buffalo touchdown one play later. I'm starting to think this team is way too reckless for its own good. Perhaps an early indictment on Mike Macdonald and his style of coaching?

Seattle's inability to rush the passer is really biting them hard in the pass. Where's Boye Maye or Nwosu? Where's their first-round draft pick?

DK Metcalf was ruled out of the game?! Dammit. Why did I bet on this?

Titans @ Lions (-11.5)

First, I do believe that being able to run the ball affords a team more leeway in terms of complacency. It requires much less preparation to run the ball than it does to pass. So I do think Detroit is saved here in part by their ability to pound the ball over ground.

Mason Rudolph is just terrible. Despite posting some good completion and yardage numbers, those interceptions were just unforgivable, though I don't want to give Brian Callahan a pass for the way his team has been executing poorly on some of these bootlegs. If bootlegs figure so prominently in your offense, spend some time making sure the offense understands the timing, the rhythm, and the blocking assignments.

Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard are vectors on this Titan offense.

Twice, this Tennessee special teams unit has coughed up significant yardage against Detroit's returners.

The Steelers held on to Mason Rudolph for six years. And yet could not stomach Kenny Pickett for more than two years. I wonder why?

Cardinals @ Dolphins (-3.5)

David Long is a liability in pass coverage as a linebacker for the Dolphins. In fact, Miami's linebacking corps is a major vulnerability in pass coverage.

Miami's pass rush has no teeth. Kyler Murray is way too comfortable in the pocket, as he's actually cycling through his reads. Where's Zach Sieler?

All right, never mind, Sieler apparently missed this game with an eye injury. Explains their poor performance on defense, actually.

Interesting to see Kyler Murray actually turn down running the ball. It's clearly a conscious decision at this point.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is an elite vector for this team. Seeing Kyler heave the ball to him in desperation moments only for him to reel in the catch affirms this.

One thing to be said about the Cardinals - they're well coached. They fight hard down to the wire. It explains how they came out of this game and last week's game with a victory.

Chiefs @ Raiders (+8.5)

Why do pass rushers run past mobile quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes? To see Maxx Crosby playing so idiotically is disappointing.

The Raiders are trying to run the ball with power against this Chief front and it's simply not working. When will Las Vegas finally learn its lesson and adjust? Or at least try a little bit of misdirection? Every single power run seems telegraphed. This is just poor scheming from Luke Getsy.

Some of these Raider runs seem ill-advised too. Running into loaded fronts, rushing towards the strong side of their defense into defenders like Chris Jones....just so much ignorance on that side of the ball.

Four downs to plug the ball into the end zone from three yards out. The first three downs were all failed runs. The last down was a desperation play that never had a shot. Just pathetic all around. Luke Getsy is a green chip coach.

Bears @ Commanders (+1.5)

Just poor hail mary defense at the end of the game. But the bigger sin was that Bears pass rushers gave Jayden way too much time to wait patiently for his receivers to trek down the field.

Watching this game, I'm quietly impressed by Jayden's ability to command and lead this offense. His ability to mislead receivers with his eyes is already putting him at a veteran level when it comes to quarterbacking intelligence.

Montez Sweat is pretty special given his ability to track down mobile quarterbacks despite being a defensive linemen.

Dorance Armstrong might tragically be Washington's best pass rusher. Thankfully, the Commanders compensate somewhat by having a pair of solid linebackers (Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu) capable of rushing opposing passers effectively in spot moments.

I wonder if the Commanders can handle outside sweeps/runs given their tendency to station defenders closer to the center of the field.

I love the way Washington's pre-snap motions avail them with a multitude of ways to distribute the ball. Fantastic work by Kliff Kingsbury integrating that type of versatility into the offensive playbook.

Cowboys @ 49ers (-5.5)

Bit of a weird game. Cowboys seem to be producing on offense largely through yards after the catch, even on long third downs. Maybe Dallas has keyed in on a deficiency in San Francisco's defensive coverage?

Purdy's passing has been inaccurate at times.

The switch was flipped in the second half for the 49ers. Not sure why. It might have been Isaac Guerendo having to assume the role of bellcow tailback once Jordan Mason became injured. It might have been that they shook off some complacency - the 49ers being such big favorites in primetime against a team that was recently humiliated had to have fostered a little bit of complacency. Or it might have been a few tweaks were made to the offensive strategy after the Cowboys showed their hand in the first half. Whatever it was, this game is now going as expected.

Giants @ Steelers (-6)

Pittsburgh's passing game needs work. The chemistry isn't quite there between the passer and the receivers. It seems like the Steelers do not work much on where to finish dynamic routes.

Alex Highsmith has established himself as a notable pass rusher.

Daniel Jones is not an intelligent passer. Pretty clear he has a hard time reading coverages. The throwing windows need to open up first before he can sail the ball through them. But in the NFL, a half of a second's delay is all it takes for defenses to close those windows shut.

Is it possible the Giants defense is playing so poorly in the first half because this new Steeler offense is still mostly a black box given that there's only one game worth of tape with Russell under center? I guess we'll see in the second half.