Cowboys @ Falcons (-3)

Easy going for the Falcons on their first drive. Cowboys were playing mostly safe coverage.

Kaden Ellis has been impressive this season as the leader of the defense for Atlanta.

On designed blitzes, results for these Falcons have been mixed. Generally, it seems like the Falcons do hurry Dak, but it doesn't matter much, as Dak has had arguably his best plays against the Falcons defense on these blitzes. Once again, Atlanta's inability to rush the passer with just four players is biting them hard in the ass here.

Kirk Cousins has been way too comfortable in the pocket today, as expected.

Chargers @ Browns (+1.5)

Credit to the Chargers on their first touchdown. The Browns defense clearly weren't ready to play so quickly after celebrating sacking Justin Herbert. Because the Chargers were so quick to snap the ball, the secondary couldn't communicate coverage quickly enough, leaving Joshua Palmer completely uncovered in the end zone.

Watching more of this game, it's dawning on me that two key injuries were almost entirely responsible for the way the Browns defense imploded. Not having Jeremiah Owusu-Keromoah manning the center of the defense means life is much easier now for opposing rushers. Cleveland was supposed to be one of the league's best rushing defenses, but that reputation is now at jeopardy now that JOK is no longer there to backstop loose gaps. The other major injury is at cornerback - Denzel Ward. Even though Ward played in this game, it's clear the man isn't mentally healthy. On three key occasions did he let up huge completions. Two of those completed passes led directly to touchdowns while the remaining completion came on a third down in a drive that ultimately ended in a touchdown. He was always out of position on those throws too. Either symptoms from that concussion still lingered or he was out of sorts after missing nearly an entire week of practice. Either way, he should not have been out there playing.

So here's a new lesson - be wary of teams starting cornerbacks coming fresh off concussions without much practice time.

Broncos @ Ravens (-9.5)

Denver allegedly has one of the league's best pass rushes. We shall see.

Denver's pass rushers are failing to get the job done. Browning, Cooper, and Benitto haven't flashed much in live play.

Raiders @ Bengals (-7.5)

Pierce once again inexplicably benches Minshew in the 3rd quarter. Is he honestly expecting better from Desmond Ridder? What ridiculously poor coaching. The organization needs to be marked as green along with the offense. And possibly the defense as well, judging by the way Burrow is lighting them up this week.

Jaguars @ Eagles (-7.5)

Walker Little is still a liability in pass protection.

This Jacksonville offense is absolutely dogshit on the road. I know they're down Christian Kirk, but these drops are sickening. Tag them green on offense for not correcting this one issue on offense after 9 weeks.

Meanwhile, I was right about the Eagles playing complacent. The fact that they could not punch in the ball from the 1 on a tush push is all I needed to see. Add in some sloppy throwing from Hurts for further confirmation.

Cooper DeJean is an elite defensive back. Halen Carter and Josh Sweat can be considered notable pass rushers.

It's dawned on me - the Jaguars are a timing-based offense. Because of that, it's incredibly difficult to work new receivers into the fold of the offense without having them go through some growing pains.

Dolphins @ Bills (-6)

De'Von Achane is a vector for the Dolphins. Maybe Jonnu Smith too?

The Bills run defense is really suspect. Which makes sense given their preference for smaller bodies all across their defense.

So are the Dolphins. Can they not wrap up and tackle?

Rams @ Seahawks (+1.5)

Seattle's offensive line is atrocious. All of the Rams pass rushers have had field days today - Michael Hoight, Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, and even Braden Fisk. Really speaks well about the Rams that they can muster this much pressure in a road environment. Either that or Seattle's pass protection may rank among the worst in the league.

Lions @ Packers (+2.5)

The Lions have built an offensive identity based on their ground game. Their offensive line and backfield were built to emphasize running the ball first and foremost. I always thought drafting Jahmyrr Gibbs so high in the draft was a bit of a silly move, but it makes sense now. The Lions insist on pounding the ball first and foremost. Even the passing plays are almost always designed with some form of play-action incorporated.

This Lions defense continues to impress me. Alim McNeill is making a case for himself as an elite pass rusher. On top of that, Brian Branch, Carlton Davis, and Alex Anzalone have stood out on defense as spectacular players.

Colts @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Colts defense has been criticized for being simple, but it's effective. It's a defense built mostly on front-end talent. Their defensive front has some fantastic tackles in DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart as well as some solid edge rushers in Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo. Behind them is one of the best middle linebackers in the league in Zaire Franklin. Gus Bradley is relying on these guys to generate negative plays and set offenses behind schedule.

Another interesting facet of Bradley's defense - the defenders are very disciplined when it comes to defending their zone. Misdirection plays aren't all that effective against them because defenders rarely move out of position.

One benfit to Brian Flores' blitz-happy defense is that they can blow up short-yardage plays depending on which defenders blitz and which ones end up dropping into coverage.

Commanders @ Giants (+5)

Tyler Nubin is a liability in coverage and as a box defender against running plays.

Micah McFadden is a star on this Giants defense.

This Giants offense is a horse-and-buggy offense. It's just ridiculous. And yet, I'm not sure I can blame the coaches here. Then again, I wish I'd see a bit more creativity from them when it comes to finding ways to incorporate different skill players from the backfield. I'd rather not see Daniel Jones be forced to drop back repeatedly, especially given his slow processing power.

Then again, the Giants tried a bold strategy in the first half - do nothing but run the ball. To be fair, it's a strategy that wasn't so bad either - not only were they productive, but it helped them maintain some control over time of possession. That being said, no team can ever just succeed off the ground game alone. And this was further proof.

Buccaneers @ Chiefs (-9.5)

The Chiefs really have the best coaching staff, the best quarterback, and arguably the best defensive line in the league. Just stacked.

Buccaneers are trying to find new ways to utilize some of their depth receivers. It'll be interesting to watch them work Sterling Shepard and other skill players into the fold of the offense.

The Chiefs have finally declared their ground game in the second half. Tampa Bay did well enough keeping Kareem Hunt checked in the first half, but the interior of the offensive line finally started winning their battles in the trenches on a consistent basis.

That being said, what really killed the Buccaneers tonight was their third-down defense. It seemed like they were all too happy letting tight ends and receivers run free in the middle of the field. Tampa's zone coverage was just way too soft against the Chief receivers. I understand you're sending blitzers towards Patrick and hoping he releases the ball quick so you can run up and make the tackle, but Bowles should know better than anybody that nobody dissects the blitz faster than Mahomes.

Then again, even when Tampa only threw four rushers against Patrick, Mahomes was able to pull off just enough magic to keep the drive going.

Lessons

Is it possible that losing a game last week helps a team refocus? If that were the case, it should be a factor that counts against complacency.

Maybe it's not so much organizational toxicity as it is organizational ineptitude that should count in terms of complacency. Because these Raiders are hopeless inept on all fronts.

Be wary of defensive backs returning from concussion protocol, especially if they haven't logged much practice at all during the week.