So let's get an early jump on conference championship analysis, in part because I'm making a major revision to my analysis of the Lions - I think Jared Goff actually qualifies as an elite quarterback now. I've actually been impressed by him over the last few weeks. I think my bias got the best of me when I designated him as an adequate quarterback and nothing more than that.
Goff's flown under the radar this season, maybe because of the lack of highlight reel throws this season or because of his mediocre branding, I'm not sure. But given the way receivers often find themselves open and the speed at which Goff operates, it's pretty clear the Lions run a system of offense perfectly catering to the strengths of their signal caller. Out-of-structure plays aren't all too common here, which is probably for the best given Goff's immobility. But even when things break down and pressure mounts, Jared is still able to operate successfully more often than not.
Also, I'm starting to wonder whether Brock Purdy should have been designated a liability instead of an adequate quarterback. Watching him in that game against Green Bay, the man left me unimpressed. For reasons that I have difficulty articulating, I can just see that his dropback game isn't there. So much of the time in true dropback situations, he's just dumping the ball off to the running back. Other times, he's feeding receivers running dagger routes or dancing way too much in the pocket before throwing balls powered partly by prayer. I realize now there haven't been too many opportunities this season where Brock Purdy's meddle has been tested in tough moments given that they've only fallen behind their opponent a handful of times. But even in those few moments, I've been unimpressed far too often.
If Goff is indeed elite and Purdy is closer to being a liability than a competent quarterback, we have the recipe for at least one conference championship upset this weekend. Combine that with the fact that the Ravens are likely to win the AFC title this weekend and that Detroit carries a significant tactical edge against them and a path is there for Detroit to win it all this year. So let this post serve as proof of my faith in Detroit's championship potential. For the sake of Lions fans everywhere as well as my bank account, I do hope Detroit wins the Super Bowl. It'd make my initial pick of the Rams as the Super Bowl champions somewhat forgivable considering the Rams lost an incredible close match against them in the postseason.
Chiefs @ Ravens (-4.5)
Once again, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs get it done - they're back in the conference championship.
It came courtesy of a career-worst showing from presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson. As I said a few weeks ago, I'm starting to think elite quarterbacks shouldn't be factored into the analysis any more. Quarterbacks are only as good as the weaponry at their disposal. It's clear Mark Andrews coming back into the game was what cost them here. If he took snaps away from Isaiah Likely as I suspect he did, that's one less passing weapon out there running routes. With Zay Flowers being the only other top-quality receiver out there catching passes, Lamar was spending way too much time in the pocket looking hopelessly down the field waiting for an open outlet. It's possible the outlets were there, but they weren't the ones Lamar wanted. Over the past several weeks, it's clear Jackson values Flowers and Likely over every one of his other skill players. Without one of them out there, it would have been all too easy for Kansas to limit them through the air.
Funny enough, we saw something similar just two years ago, when the Cincinnati Bengals surprised everyone with by upsetting the top-seeded Titans. How did they pull that off? One major reason why is because the Titans tried to force Derrick Henry back into action as the workhorse at tailback despite the man not having seen any real action in months. Henry was terrible. His back-up (D'Onta Foreman) was so much more productive on his touches, but he was only allowed to rush with the ball four times.
This will likely be something nobody talks about, but Mark Andrews taking snaps away from Isiah Likely is probably the main reason Baltimore lost.
The Ravens melted down in the second half despite producing way more yards on offense. Two critical turnovers and several missed opportunities killed them. Credit to my data that showed that Baltimore has been absolutely awful this year mounting comebacks and retaining leads. That inability to close out games in their favor really bit them hard in the second half.
I also need to rewatch the Ravens plays against the Texans last week. How did Lamar go off in the second half last week when he struggled so much this week?
Lions @ 49ers (-7.5)
Little bizarre. Jared Goff was the better quarterback and Detroit had a 17-point lead entering the second half. It didn't matter. One quarter later, all the momentum was favoring San Francisco as they were manically staging one of the best comebacks of the entire season.
Yet more proof that an elite quarterback might not matter so much if the weapons are limited. Detroit has some wonderful skill players on their offense, yes...but San Francisco has more of them, period. And that made all the difference in the world here once Brock Purdy rallied the offense back from such a huge deficit.
It's a shame though - Jared Goff threw some beautiful passes all game long, but his receivers disappointed him at the worst possible moments.
Brock Purdy's ability to run may have been the difference maker here.
If I'm going to take away elite quarterbacks from my analysis, will that change how I rate vectors, let alone what I define to be a vector? I'm not sure. Two things need to be noted here though.
First, I need to start taking into account are significant plays - how many significant plays do players make? A significant play should be defined as a play that moves the chains or results in a touchdown. The more times a receiver makes a play to keep the drive alive or give the team even more points, the more important that receiver becomes to the offense. Care should be especially given to those receivers who make those catches at clutch moments, when the game is still fairly tight.
Second, it should be noted when quarterbacks are mobile, even if that mobility never really emerges as a definite vector on offense at any point during the regular season.
