My complacency analysis so far isn't looking promising.

Early analysis indicates that dominant teams sustaining long winning streaks and playing in matches where they are heavily favored are not as complacent as I originally thought. Not only do they win the vast majority of the time, but they outright cover 50% of the time (going back to 2022). I need to tweak my complacency formula a bit to see if variations in the formulation yields a statistically significant trend, but I am resigning myself to the fact that complacency doesn't play as a big a role in NBA basketball as it does in NFL football.

It makes sense too. A season of NFL football is a physically grueling sprint with comparatively longer breaks between games. The NBA is more of an endurance marathon in which individual games carry far less importance in the grand scheme of things. I think this dynamic completely neutralizes the complacency advantage we see quite a bit in the NFL.