So here we are. Super Bowl 59. Let this post serve as a depository for all my thoughts on this game, pre-game and post-game.
PRE-GAME THOUGHTS
My initial hunch and my analysis shows that the Chiefs should win this game, albeit in an extremely close affair. The reality is that the Eagles have the better team on a pound-for-pound basis, but the Chiefs have the better quarterback, the better defensive front (arguably), and a more proven record at rallying back from scoring deficits.
That being said, this Eagle team is far better than the 2022 version that lost the Super Bowl against these very same Chiefs - not only do they feature the league's best rusher in Saquon Barkley, but the coaches managing the team this year are just more seasoned and apt at game preparation. Frankly, Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio are just flat out better at coaching than Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon. So the Eagles do come into this game with more edges, but is it enough? I'm saying no, but I can't say that with any real conviction.
So I'm saying the Chiefs are going to win, but it's not a prediction I'm willing to back with good money. If anything, my biggest bet on the game will be predicated on neither team winning this contest by more than seven points.
CHIEFS @ EAGLES
As expected by quite a few analytically-inclined minds, the Chiefs have started out notably slow. But even more concerning is that I'm seeing Eagle players slipping and sliding just like the last time these two teams danced in the championship. Has Nick Sirianni not learned his lesson from two years ago?
Both of these teams are struggling offensively early. The Eagles were able to drive early for a touchdown thanks to a deep ball to Jahan Dotson, but outside of that one play, neither club has done much to impress on offense. Saquon has been kept bottled up so far.
And yet, the Eagles are up 24 points by the half. How? Well, two turnovers literally awarded them something like 12 points from an expected points perspective. And those two turnovers came largely as a result of the intense pressure Philadelphia's front four has been able to mount on Patrick throughout the first half. In many ways, this game is less like the the past two Super Bowls and so much more like that Super Bowl between the Buccaneers and the Chiefs, where Kansas was just blown to smithereens from start to finish.
Brady has repeatedly noted that Mahomes has not been able to steady his feet in the pocket. He's jittery and not trusting his protection at all. I don't know how the Chiefs adjust around this in the second half. If Mahomes and Reid cannot trust their offensive line, the only thing at their disposal are short passes. But those short passes are either not there or the Chiefs just don't have too many of them in their playbook - outside of a few screens and some failed completions on option routes, Kansas hasn't done much operating in the flat.
On top of that, the Chiefs honestly look shook. Travis and Mahomes aren't on the same page. DeAndre Hopkins dropped a critical pass late in the first half. Mahomes threw two awful interception, gifting the Eagles with 14 points. And it doesn't seem like Reid has any tricks up his sleeve here to pull out. If anything, he's been trying to adjust by running the ball, but all their rushing attempts have yielded disgustingly little yardage.
Not much changed in the second half, but it did seem like the Eagles had some solutions to negotiate their way through Spagnuolo's blitz packages, given the way Hurts was able to convert on some blitzing downs in the third quarter. That and Saquon Barkley was a bit more successful chewing off yardage against the Chiefs defense, although he was still unable to break off one of his signature home-run plays. More importantly though, the Chiefs still had a few drives stymied by pressure. It was only when the game was out of hand that Kansas was able to turn up points on the board.
POST-GAME THOUGHTS
Pretty sad that the Chiefs were blown out yet again in another crushing Super Bowl loss. Yes, the Patriots lost some Super Bowls too during their dynasty run, but even in their losses, New England stayed competitive well into the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Kansas let this game slip out of their hands in the final minutes of the second quarter.
Anyway...I never saw this dominant performance from the Eagles coming. And it bothers me. Witnessing that Eagles defensive front slap around that Chiefs offensive line all throughout the game, I'm left wondering one thing - what did I miss here? After watching so much tape on them and reading into their pressure numbers, I couldn't bill the Eagles as having a dominant defensive front. Sure, Philadelphia was much better rushing the passer in the playoffs, but all their success could have been explained away by circumstantial factors - negative momentum and injuries left Green Bay hobbled on offense, snowy weather suffocated the Rams offensively, and a decisive tactical advantage limited the Commanders' potential on offense.
Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith never really stood out much during the regular season, so it's more than just a little surprising to see them finally emerge as game wreckers in the championship game (of all games)! Maybe Vic Fangio having two weeks to game plan against Mahomes and company was all it took for him to fine-tune the kinks out of his pass rush. Then again, it could also be related to the state of the Chiefs offensive line entering the postseason. The last couple months, Kansas struggled to put together a viable starting offensive line. The advanced analytics indicated that the latest iteration of their offensive line wasn't really doing much better than past combinations from earlier in the season. In fact, it was doing worse, given how much of a liability Mike Caliendo was at the left guard position.
I'm wondering if the instability of their offensive line could explain the shaky level of play we saw from the Chiefs in the postseason. Yes, they ultimately won postseason games against the Texans and Bills, but neither of those wins could be counted as comforting victories - Mahomes was constantly harassed. On top of that, I don't think their ground game gained any sort of rhythm during those two games, meaning the burden of production was forced entirely upon Mahomes' shoulders. Now that I'm on this point...I can't help but think about the referees spotting the Chiefs some free yardage in the division round against Houston. Those gifted penalties were absolutely crucial in controlling the momentum of the game against a surprisingly feisty Texan outfit that outperformed the Chiefs across most major box score statistics.
I think going forward, I need to start assessing whether a given offense is comfortable playing whatever brand of football it plays. But then an obvious question arises - how does one quantify comfort level? And I'm not too sure. I'll need to rewatch the Chiefs playoff contests against the Texans and Bills to see if there's some obvious tell there that I may have missed. But I do think one crucial thing that I need to start taking into account when assessing the Super Bowl is the way the quarterback performs in the postseason leading up to the Super Bowl. After all, what better way to measure offensive harmony than to judge the way the quarterback operates at its helm? At the highest levels of the sport, we can reasonably assume the whole offense runs through a singular point, that singular point being the quarterback - after all, we're no longer in the era when clubs won games solely by outmuscling other teams in the ground game.
One thing I can think needs to be tracked is the number of interceptible passes that a quarterback throws through the postseason. Notice we're not just judging by actual interceptions, but by the sheer number of passes where a coverage defender was in position to intercept the ball. Whether the defender actually succeed in generating the turnover is immaterial - that matters more is that the central cog in the offense is malfunctioning to the point that ball possession is jeopardized. And in games of sport like football where possessions come at a premium, quarterbacks cannot afford to cut drives short prematurely.
Another thing I might have to research is defensive potential. If a defensive unit is excelling in just about every aspect of defense (and not just when it comes to rushing the passer), I wonder if that should be factored into my analysis. A team with a high defensive ceiling should have a much easier time exposing an offense, especially an offense showing signs of sputtering. We've seen this before in 2013 with the Seahawks, in 2015 with the Broncos, in 2021 with the Rams, and most recently, this year with the Eagles. If I'm not mistaken, all those teams I just mentioned were heralded as the league's best defenses (going by the NFL's official metrics) in their respective years. But more research is needed here. In particular, I need to go back to 2006 and assess what happens when a top-flight defense matches up against another club with a lesser defense in the Super Bowl.
