Every weekend, I'll be writing posts like this to assess whether the match-by-match predictions put forth by my playoff model held largely true. Let's begin.

Browns @ Texans (+2.5)

I had a hard time figuring this game out, given all the injuries plaguing Houston's defense this week. Will Anderson Jr. and Jonathan Greenard weren't practicing much at all. Maliek Collins was questionable as well. Even though Houston had a better quarterback, home field advantage, and a tactical edge owing to their game earlier in the season, I still surmised the Browns would be difficult to snuff out given their strength of spirit and their ability to close out games. I was wrong.

Not only were both Greenard and Anderson able to play and impact the game meaningfully, that tactical edge showed up in a big way - Joe Flacco hasn't played as poorly this season as he did this weekend. It was almost tragic to watch him play so pathetically after everybody was chanting his name just a few weeks ago for leading Cleveland back into the playoffs. I'm convinced the Texans were able to key in on many of his tendencies and also gained a beat on some of the routes Cleveland's receivers loved to run. All this information naturally led to Flacco putting the ball in harm's way on several occasions. On top of that, it seems the defensive line did much better work harassing the Joe all day long, although I suspect much of that is owed to the fact that Houston's best pass rushers were playing at full strength this time around while Cleveland lost a few of their offensive linemen over the course of the game.

One of my biggest questions this year was how much are tactical edges worth. I initially valued such an advantage at 4 points, though I have very little conviction in the number., This game may be telling me that I've undervalued such an edge, though it's hard to divorce that tactical edge from the overall influence Houston's best pass rushers are having on the game.

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4.5)

My model is doing just fine here. The cold weather is really taking its toll on Tua too, judging by the sloppiness of some of his passes. But outside of single coverage on Tyreek Hill on one snap, the Dolphins have done nothing of note on offense in the first half.

One thing worth noting is that the Chiefs are still dropping passes. But maybe it can be excused given the extreme cold?

Packers @ Cowboys (-7.5)

Green Bay looks like they're going to win. Looks like the model was a bit wrong here, although it did give Green Bay a sporting chance to win the game. But the Packers are outright dominating this contest early. I'm very happy to see Jordan Love living up to his elite billing.

Perhaps I'm assigning way too much importance to game management? I'm awarding 14 points on lead management and comeback potential alone. Perhaps I need to slide that down to 8 points instead in order to keep it at the same level as the metrics I use to judge offense or defense.

One more reason to pat myself on the back - Dak is not an elite player nor is he even charismatic. I think I made a mistake even giving him consideration as charismatic. A cornball can never inspiration, especially if their play doesn't quite justify it. And regardless of what pundits in the media were saying, Dak is nowhere close to playing like an elite passer (as I wrote in my write-up about the Cowboys.) He's far closer to being a liability. In fact, judging by the way he's playing today, an argument can be made that he should have been rated as a liability.

Is it also possible the Cowboys were just not prepared for this game? I get the sense the Cowboys never really respected the way Green Bay's passing game developed over the past several weeks.

Rams @ Lions (-3)

I think a credible case can be made here that I missed including Josh Reynolds as a vector on offense, despite his pedestrian numbers. Apparently...wanting to stick it to your former team is great motivation.

But more importantly, the Rams are doing absolutely nothing on defense to slow down this Lions offense. What the hell is going on here? Did I overestimate Aaron Donald despite all the lovely numbers he put up this season? Does Ernest Jones even matter much when the front cannot do anything to impact the opposing offense? Do Raheem Morris and Sean McVay not know that Detroit just runs a modified version of the same system McVay operated in Los Angeles when Goff was still the latter's quarterback? Or maybe...just maybe Goff is elite? That'd be a little shocking, not going to lie. Especially after his recent games against Chicago and Dallas. It'd be a hard notion to accept as truth.

Defense is playing much better in the second half now. It still might be a little too late though, especially as the Rams are failing to convert red-zone trips into touchdowns. Speaking of which...I wonder if I jumped the gun declaring Cooper Kupp as an elite player on offense. He hasn't done much, to be honest. Quite a few red zone opportunities were wasted because of throws made in his direction. And because of that, the Rams ended up losing this game, though it's certainly feasible that Goff could have mounted a comeback.

Speaking of failing to evaluate skill players, it's clear Sam LaPorta is back from what should have been a pretty rough injury. That's another player that should have been included as a vector on offense for the Lions.

I'm starting to think I overvalued game management. Part of the reason why the Rams were so highly rated compared to other teams was that they were one of the few teams (if not the only one) to show an ability to stage comebacks and maintain leads. But that didn't matter much in this game, did it?

I'm still baffled by this. And this won't sit well with me considering this model wanted me to go all in on the Rams. To be fair, it had quite a few good reasons - an elite quarterback, multiple established weapons on offense, an elite pass rusher as well as one of the best blitzing linebackers in the league, and a proven track record on game management.

What did the Lions have again? A solid quarterback, a set of established weapons on offense, an elite pass rusher, a phenomenal safety, and a decent grasp on game management. Did home field advantage really outweigh the discrepancy in quarterbacking and decision-making? Let's not forget the Rams arguably have more leaders on their roster too, unless Dan Campbell can be counted as a leader despite his off-the-field role. I always though field leaders matter more in the heat of the moment compared to generals doing nothing more than cheerleading on the sidelines....but maybe I'm wrong. Then again, maybe leadership doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things. All questions to consider as we continue watching the playoffs.

Eagles @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

Remember that little thing I added to the grading rubric this year called tactical edges? It's clear Tampa Bay has keyed in on a number of Philadelphia's tendencies from their meeting back in September. I'm starting to realize a tactical edge can be gained from as early as the first week in the season, so long as neither team hasn't appreciably changed much in identity.

From what I'm seeing online and in announcer commentary, it seems the Eagles are refusing to run many routes across the middle of the field. In this particular game, it's costing them dearly - without any crossing routes to take advantage of man coverage, Jalen Hurts is literally left without much in terms of passing outlets every time the Buccaneers send a blitzer from outside the tackle box. Even when Hurts dumps off the pass, Tampa is quick to pick up those hot receivers in coverage. It's a little shocking to see Philadelphia play so impotently here despite the presence of DeVonta Smith, D'Andre Swift, and Dallas Goedert. What's wrong with them? How are they not squeezing out any real production from their skill players? Either Jalen Hurts is a liability at quarterback (unlikely given the way he played just a month ago) or I've failed to realize that A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are a package deal. Both of them are outside receivers who likely benefit from each other's presence. When one is missing on the field, the other will inevitably draw more coverage resources towards his direction. And without any other dimensions to their passing attack, the Eagles are only left with a running game that's all too easy to shut down when opposing defenses know it's the only way they can matriculate the ball.

LESSONS

I need to start making playoff analysis rubrics four to five weeks before the postseason begins. That way, I can actually start paying attention to certain teams to figure out whether they have the stuff needed to win a championship. After all, it was my early vigilance over Dolphins that eventually made picking against them easy.

A separate category needs to be created for elite coverage defenders. Elite coverage defenders do make a difference ultimately, especially when compared to an average set of coverage defenders. Elite coverage defenders are defined as defenders who excel at the responsibilities of their position, be it linebacker, safety, or cornerback. Linebackers have to be excellent in run support and coverage of receivers in the flat. Safeties have to be excellent in whole field coverage as well as opportunistic plays. Cornerbacks have to be able to consistently shut down any receivers they're covering. On top of that, it would also help immensely if any of these coverage defenders showed a knack for rushing the passer.

It might be advisable to lower the point value I assign to comebacks successfully stages and comebacks surrendered. Instead of 14 points total, let's consider dropping the value of comebacks to 6-8 points total.

Maybe charismatic leaders should not be a category here. Its value seems dubious in light of the Browns, the Rams, and the Eagles losing.

Tactical edges can be gained as early as the beginning of the season. Quite surprising.